A member of the Pacific family is in crisis, and how Australia responds next will shape its partnerships for years to come.

Following unrest among pro-independence Kanaks in New Caledonia, Australia needs to back the diplomatic intervention of other members of the Blue Pacific. And it should tell France, for France’s own good, to hold a replacement for a discredited referendum that overwhelmingly rejected independence in 2021.

Australia faces a choice between, on one hand, demonstrating its attentiveness and commitment to its Pacific family and, on the other, staying silent for the sake of preserving relations with France and hoping to offend no one.

Violence broke out in New Caledonia on 13 May as the French parliament was about to vote on a constitutional amendment ^[1] that would have reshaped the electoral roll in the French overseas territory. Pro-independence Kanaks saw it as an attempt to water down their voting power. New Caledonian society remains tense, and violence threatens to erupt again.

Other Pacific island countries have put New Caledonia firmly on the agenda for an upcoming summit of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF). Australia should step up and support the PIF in its calls for a visiting mission and a resolution to the crisis. It should also privately lobby Paris not to block such a visit.

A Pacific Islands Leaders Meeting that Japan held in mid-July became a perfect opportunity for Pacific leaders to discuss issues in person. The most pressing one was the evolving crisis in New Caledonia.

While their leaders were in Tokyo on 17 July, the members of the Melanesian Spearhead Group issued a statement ^[2] declaring the referendum ‘illegitimate and null and void’, opposed the militarisation of New Caledonia and called for a series of international missions. The group is formed by Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and the New Caledonian independence movement FLNKS.

Cook Islands prime minister and current PIF chair Mark Brown on the same day that the results of the referendum were ‘not really valid ^[3]’ as a result of the boycott by the Kanak population due to COVID-19 and cultural mourning periods. Only 3.5 percent of voters supported independence, but turnout was very low. Then on 22 July the PIF said ^[4] it would send representatives from Fiji, Tonga and Cook Islands to New Caledonia; they would report back to a PIF Summit to be held from 26 to 30 August.

With New Caledonia firmly on the Pacific agenda and momentum building into the PIF summit, those without a clear position are being pushed to declare one. Brown said ^[5]: ‘New Caledonia is a PIF member, and we have a responsibility to take care of our family in a time of need.’

Australia’s response to the PIF’s calls to help a family member in need will shape perceptions of its true commitment to the region. Currently, Australia is increasingly isolated in its silence, as New Zealand Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters has joined Pacific partners in questioning ^[6] the legitimacy of the independence referendum.

Despite France’s poor handling of the 2021 referendum, two held in 2018 and 2020, in which majorities rejected independence fairly narrowly, were viewed as free and fair. This should be reason for hope that France can act responsibly and negotiate a peaceful political settlement.

Yet France has not responded to requests for a mission by the PIF, preoccupied by the Paris Olympic games being held right now and by political wrangling that has followed an inconclusive snap election ^[7]. If France fails to allow the PIF mission to New Caledonia before the PIF summit takes place, it wouldn’t be shocking to see a temporary change in status as a dialogue partner.

Australia should support the PIF in its calls for a resolution of the crisis and work to bring France around. If Australia doesn’t actively support the PIF, it too may find friends a little more hostile at the upcoming forum. Eight civilians and two gendarmes died in the in the first few weeks of the riots. Action must be taken to de-escalate the situation, promote understanding and dialogue and find a path forward.

There are concerns that an independent New Caledonia will face economic and political instability and that Australia will be burdened with the significant cost of being the primary supporter of a new, poor country. Another consideration is the potential influence and presence of China in any newly independent state in the region; that will remain a factor in long-term strategic planning.

France’s presence does contribute to upholding the region’s security, in many ways and France is a particularly important Western partner to Australia. But these issues are secondary to the immediate calls to address the current crisis, and Australia cannot let itself be driven by a fear of the region losing French support.

If Australia wants to back France, it should do so by encouraging France to negotiate. Ideally, France would agree to hold another referendum to account for the complaints about the previous one and use an electoral roll that, as far as possible, matches that of the third referendum. That, at least, would be a starting point.

Another referendum, even another ‘no’ result, would at least address the primary concern around the third referendum’s legitimacy. This would remove some immediate tension and require all parties to reassess their positions and focus on a fair political settlement. Another referendum would also make Australia’s choice easier: Canberra would endorse either the peaceful implementation of a ‘yes’ vote or the necessary political (re)negotiations that would follow another democratically endorsed ‘no’.

A definitive solution in New Caledonia is highly unlikely in the short term. If Australia is serious about its place in the Pacific family, it should be preparing for eventualities where France doesn’t contribute to the region in the ways which it currently does through development aid and security.

Even if the crisis in New Caledonia is resolved or de-escalates again to a slow burn, France’s position in the region is irreversibly stained. Local leaders will likely be more willing to push back against France’s influence and presence. Australia needs to put priority on its own relationship with the region and back the PIF. This means it is time for Australia to take a firmer stance on the New Caledonian issue and be ready to tackle the region’s security issues with less help from France.