Pre-emptive thinking about pre-emptive strikes

Articles discussing pre-emptive strikes on North Korea are now everywhere. Based on a small number of in-depth analytical studies, they detail military challenges, human costs and likely outcomes. While those articles prepare us for the …

Indonesia’s maritime strategy: what’s been achieved?

In 2016, the Indonesian government released a white paper outlining the parameters for a future ‘global maritime fulcrum’ (GMF) strategy. The document reflects the significance of the littoral environment to the country’s national psyche and …

North Korea: slouching towards Bethlehem?

North Korea’s sixth nuclear test is easily its most impressive. The fifth—in September last year—involved the detonation of a device similar in yield to the bomb the Americans dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. The latest …

North Korea: what now?

North Korea’s sixth—and most powerful—nuclear test is part of a pattern of escalating belligerence. As a result, the UN Security Council will issue yet another resolution condemning Kim Jong-un’s blatant violations of previous council resolutions. …

ASPI suggests

There’s been a lot going on in Australia’s near region this week, the closest of which is the continuing conflict in the Philippine city of Marawi. RAAF Orion surveillance aircraft are already providing intelligence support …

After Barcelona

It’s slowly becoming clear that as horrific as the Barcelona attack was, it could have been much worse. The cell was planning to use a homemade explosive device to kill hundreds at landmarks across the …

North Korea and US leadership

In August, North Korea went a couple of weeks without launching any missiles or testing nuclear weapons. That short interval, which has since ended, was enough to inspire US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to …

Closing the ADF’s deterrence gap

The force structure proposed in the 2016 Defence White Paper lacks a long-range deterrence capability—at least until we get a credible fleet of submarines sometime in the distant 2040s. Short of nuclear threats, which are …

Trump’s doomed Afghan strategy

In a rare presidential address last week at Fort Myer, Virginia, Donald Trump outlined his administration’s strategy for the United States’ future engagement in Afghanistan. Trump avoided admitting outright that he was authorising an increase …

Forgetting the lessons of the West

Perhaps the West’s greatest contribution to politics is the concept of contested and limited governance—from Greek and Roman republicanism, which balanced the elites and the masses, through to the parliaments of the British Westminster systems …

Divisions and deadlines in New Caledonia

New Caledonia is preparing to hold an independence referendum by the November 2018 deadline. The stakes are high, as the outcome could redefine France’s status in our region. All parties have a lot to do …