The deterrent value of submarines

I spoke on the subject of the deterrent value of submarines at the Submarine Institute of Australia annual conference yesterday. I was preaching to the choir with that crowd, but I’m often asked at public …

Trump could make the pivot great again

Speculation regarding the implications of Donald Trump’s win for Asia has been, to be charitable, all over the map. Some argue that Trump’s victory is a win for China because he’ll seek to cut deals …

Europe, alone in Trump’s world

Alone again. Since World War II’s end, Europe has looked at the world through a transatlantic lens. There have been ups and downs in the alliance with the United States, but it was a family …

Shaping and hedging in a time of Trump

Donald J. Trump is president-elect of the United States. What are the consequences for Australia? Following a 15 minute phone call with Mr Trump, Prime Minister Turnbull moved to reassure a shell-shocked public that it’s …

Strategic policy, ANZUS and dealing with Trump

On 20 January 2017, Donald Trump will be sworn in as America’s 45th president. I’m not expecting an immediate revolution in strategic affairs; his priorities will be unashamedly domestic. Indeed, like most politicians—who campaign in …

Preparing Asia for Trump

Whether or not US President-elect Donald Trump behaves better once in office than he did on the campaign trail, America’s global authority has already taken a battering, not least among its allies and partners in …

Mo’ MIRVs, mo’ problems

When you think of American and Soviet Cold War nuclear arsenals, the descriptor ‘huge’ automatically comes to mind. One technological innovation in the 1970s contributed more than any other factor to the creation of those …

The Pivot Trumped, Amexit looms

Five years ago this week, Barack Obama launched the Pivot. Thus, on its fifth birthday, the Pivot expires. This is an epitaph. The American people have decided and the Pivot is Trumped. Asia confronts Amexit: …

ASPI suggests

It’s Remembrance Day today, when, at 11am, Australians took a moment to remember those who died or suffered for their country in conflict and war. Today we commemorated 11am on 11 November 1918, when ‘the …

Trump’s new world disorder

So much for the end of history. Twenty-seven years to the day after the fall of the Berlin Wall heralded the collapse of communism in Europe, Donald Trump’s election as US president endangers the liberal …

Trump: Pax Americana in the Asia–Pacific

The election of Donald Trump is the political equivalent of a nuclear bomb, an explosion that not only destroys the immediate environment but also scatters radioactive fallout far away, with damage that can last for …

Trumped by the Joker?

If Heath Ledger could comment on the outcome of the US Presidential contest, he might suggest that, in politics and human commerce more generally, life imitates art. His portrayal of anarchy and disruption in The …

Donald Trump’s foreign-policy challenges

During his campaign, US President-elect Donald Trump questioned the alliances and institutions that undergird the liberal world order, but he spelled out few specific policies. Perhaps the most important question raised by his victory is …

National security wrap

The Beat Jakarta unrest Violence erupted in Jakarta last Friday night resulting in one death (from asthma-related complications) and dozens injured as police attempted to control mass protests. A 150,000 strong rally took to the …

The Donald and the Shy Trump voter

Donald Trump’s victory marks the biggest political upset in living memory. A man without solid party support nor any major newspaper editorial or celebrity endorsements has defeated  Hillary Rodham Clinton, the queen of the political establishment …