Will China regress to the mean?

Fans of English Premier League soccer may be aware of the phenomenon known as the ‘Manager of the Month’ effect. According to that, a team’s performance tends to drop the month after its coach has …

Julia on attack and defence

Julia Gillard writes that she inherited ‘unrealistic’ defence settings from Kevin Rudd and hints faintly that she bequeathed the same to the Abbott government. Just as Gillard needed a new defence policy because of Kevin …

ASPI suggests

Could future wars be fought between robots? CNAS’ Paul Scharre has a new report that examines how swarms of ‘cooperative, autonomous, robotic systems have the potential to bring greater mass, intelligence, coordination, and speed to …

What future for the Australian defence industry?

Recent events, rumours and reports have cast a light on the future of Australia’s defence industry. High-profile considerations have centred on shipbuilding and submarines with the ongoing Senate Economics References Committee Inquiry, ministerial and prime-ministerial …

Give (unconventional) war a chance

Unconventional warfare isn’t popular among Western strategists these days. Whether it’s supporting insurgent groups (the strict definition) or supporting militias allied with government forces, proxy warfare has a bad reputation. The complex situation in Syria …

Women of jihad

Last month the Terrorism Research and Analysis Consortium (TRAC) estimated that as many as 15% of ISIS’ foreign recruits could be female, with up to 200 women from at least 14 different countries known to …

The Long War—on the ground

 ‘Big History’ is all the go at the moment. This is a relatively new way of attempting to explain what’s occurring today by searching for deeper trends that are shaping events. Its popularity’s understandable—particularly when …

Gough’s remaking of foreign policy

Gough Whitlam helped Australia think about finding its security in Asia, not to seek security from Asia. Not least of Whitlam’s achievements was to make Australia colour-blind, in both word and deed. Harold Holt’s government, …

South Australian defence industry summit

I was pleased to be invited to speak at the South Australian Government’s Defence Industry Policy Summit (PDF) earlier this week. I was invited in my role as a member of the Defence White Paper Expert …

Cyber wrap

It has been a busy week for those on the international cyber circuit. ICANN51 wrapped up in Los Angeles on Thursday and the three week ITU Plenipotentiary (PP-14) in Busan kicked off on Monday. Those …

Gough’s remaking of Defence policy

Gough Whitlam was a physical giant with an intellect to match. His flaws were pretty sizeable, too, and the pygmies who beset him were often from his own party. His self-mocking humour was immensely appealing, …

Reflections on Whitlam

In memory of Gough Whitlam (1916–2014) and his contribution to Australian foreign policy, we republish here a brief excerpt from Ross Terrill’s ASPI Strategy paper, Facing the dragon, on Whitlam’s 1971 visit to China: Zhou …

No to backburner, yes to a two-track strategy

Iran’s securing nuclear weapons would destabilise a region already suffering from mass upheaval, in addition to having dire security implications for the rest of the world. Multilateral efforts to deter the sadistic actions of ISIS, …

FPDA—not fade away

Three years ago the Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA) celebrated its 40th birthday, an anniversary that sparked a flutter of international curiosity about this most eclectic of regional security frameworks. By way of animal analogy, …

Australia–Indonesia relations under Jokowi

The first thing that Joko Widodo will think about when he wakes up today, the day of his inauguration as president, won’t be Indonesia’s relationship with Australia. Nor, for that matter, with the other countries …

Canberra’s unholy trinity

Here’s Canberra lore—or three rules of an Unholy Trinity—explaining how politicians operate. When nothing makes sense, rely on the Trinity pulsing beneath the surface of party, parliament and government: It’s always personal There’s always a …