ASPI’s Washington DC office was announced in September 2021 as Australia and the United States celebrated the 70th anniversary of the ANZUS alliance and as the AUKUS partnership was being established with the United Kingdom. And as we prepare to mark the second anniversary of ASPI DC this weekend, NATO is holding its 75th annual meeting in the US capital—arguably one of the most important meetings in the alliance’s history.
ANZUS and NATO are old and enduring alliances, but they are facing new and evolving challenges. Liberal democracies and countries that value the stability born by rules and norms need to find new ways to cooperate and combine their strengths. ASPI established its Washington office precisely with the foresight that the world was only getting more difficult and uncertain and that Australia’s alliance with the US, as well as the importance of robust debate about national security policy, would only grow.
That’s exactly what happened. Since ASPI DC was conceived, Russia began its war on Ukraine, which has settled into a long and grim battle of attrition; conflict has erupted in the Middle East following the 7 October Hamas terrorism attack against Israel; China has increased its aggression in the South China Sea and over Taiwan; Moscow and Beijing have formed an unforeseen partnership to undermine international rules and create spheres of influence; and a technological revolution has gathered pace with artificial intelligence.
And this is why cross-pollination of ideas in national security, beyond traditional diplomacy, should be encouraged by anyone who believes we get better and more trusted policy if we share and contest our thoughts before applying them. Throughout history, progress has been fuelled by trade and exchange—and this applies as much to ideas as it does to goods.
This Saturday, 13 July, marks two years since Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence Richard Marles formally opened ASPI’s Washington office. And if the strategic judgments were tough in mid-2022, they are only more so today. To some extent, gravitational forces are binding democratic alliances more tightly, even if there remains some scepticism or even resistance to their pull due to misjudgement that there is some way to deflect the world’s problems so that they don’t impact too heavily on one’s own national interests.
There are some discernible and related strands to the response we need.
First, it’s more important than ever that we work together. And in these times that means working as nations, not just as governments. The role of the private sector is crucial and so is the role of civil society, including think tanks. The work of ASPI, including its Washington office, contributes to policy improvement by fostering debate, convening and facilitating discussion and, broadly, by bringing people together. This includes providing input on US perspectives to Australian government decision-making and also conveying Australian priorities—notably the importance of US engagement in the Indo-Pacific—in Washington.
Working together doesn’t mean having to always agree or self-censor. Bipartisanship in Australia and the US for national security being strengthened through contestability is a comparative advantage for democracies over authoritarian regimes like Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, which may deceptively claim unity while coercing and putting their boots on the throats of their critics.
As then defence minister Peter Dutton outlined in his announcement of the office in 2021, ‘ASPI can further strengthen our relationship by becoming a more active participant in the lively Washington DC think tank debate about defence and national security’. And Marles has said: ‘ASPI’s analysis and insights have been instrumental in informing our defence policy and strengthening our alliance with the United States. Their presence in Washington DC has facilitated crucial dialogue and collaboration on key security issues.’
ASPI DC’s engagement with US think tanks, universities and the private sector provides a forum for deepening understanding of the rationale behind Australian government decision-making, how it might affect the United States, and the decisions that might be anticipated through real-time insights. This is reciprocally true for an Australian audience. Presence thereby equals impact—and the impact is deeper partnerships.
The prime example of a new generation of partnerships is AUKUS, which binds not just the Australian, British and US governments but also, importantly, their industrial bases. Another is the Quad, which reformed in 2017 both to protect the four regional powers from China’s malicious rise and to identify practical alternatives for the region. And NATO’s concept of the Indo-Pacific 4 is a direct reflection of the inability now to separate the trans-Atlantic from the Indo-Pacific or indeed to treat Russia and China separately.
Second, we must not be mere onlookers as boundaries are collapsing. Security, economics, technology, diplomacy—while never quite discrete disciplines—are more enmeshed and interdependent than ever. Scholarship, research and discussion that sits at the intersection of these fields is critical to navigating this new world.
Third, governments cannot respond alone, with the risk of a disconnect between policymakers on one side and the general public on the other. There’s the old joke, for instance, that one’s concern about China increases in proportion to one’s security clearance. That’s a problem. The mandate needed for increased defence and security resourcing is not going to come without a proper understanding among the Australian public of the strategic challenges and threats that Australia faces. Think tanks play a crucial role here, and this is a key priority for ASPI DC.
As we head towards November’s presidential election, polls show that Donald Trump is the frontrunner. There is no doubt this brings greater uncertainty for the international system, its institutions and groupings, including NATO, given Trump’s overt scepticism of alliances and his transactional approach to relationships. Yet, regardless of the election outcome and any extra challenges presented, the health of the Australia-US alliance will remain vital as the threat to our sovereignty and way of life will still come from Russia and China (and their proxies) and their abuse of technology. There is a clear requirement to identify, develop and harness the next generation of American leaders who will still need to work with trusted and reliable partners.
ASPI DC helps provide Australia with a unique platform to convene and drive valuable discussions that are in Australia’s national interest, from the value of the alliance and AUKUS to the importance of the Indo-Pacific and international rules.