{"id":11043,"date":"2013-11-28T10:30:36","date_gmt":"2013-11-27T23:30:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=11043"},"modified":"2013-11-29T08:59:53","modified_gmt":"2013-11-28T21:59:53","slug":"peaceful-rise-anyone-chinas-east-china-sea-air-defence-identification-zone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/peaceful-rise-anyone-chinas-east-china-sea-air-defence-identification-zone\/","title":{"rendered":"Peaceful rise, anyone? China\u2019s East China Sea air defence identification zone"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/B-52_and_B-2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11044\" title=\"B-52 and B-2 of the US Air Force\" alt=\"B-52 and B-2 of the US Air Force\" src=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/B-52_and_B-2.jpg\" width=\"800\" height=\"468\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/B-52_and_B-2.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/B-52_and_B-2-205x120.jpg 205w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a>On 23 November, <a href=\"http:\/\/eng.mod.gov.cn\/DefenseNews\/2013-11\/23\/content_4476141.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Beijing declared an East China Sea Air Defence Identification Zone<\/a> (ADIZ), which not only overlaps significantly with Japan\u2019s but also with Taiwan\u2019s and South Korea\u2019s ADIZs. While the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/article\/20131124\/DEFREG03\/311240004\/Fact-Sheet-China-s-Air-Defense-Zone\" target=\"_blank\">Chinese Ministry of Defense<\/a>\u00a0insists that the ADIZ is in \u2018accordance with current international practice\u2019, many countries have a very different view, including Australia and its ally the United States. <a href=\"http:\/\/foreignminister.gov.au\/releases\/2013\/jb_mr_131126a.html\" target=\"_blank\">Foreign Minister Julia Bishop<\/a> called the establishment of the zone \u2018unhelpful in light of current regional tensions\u2019 and summoned the Chinese ambassador to express her concerns. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.state.gov\/secretary\/remarks\/2013\/11\/218013.htm\" target=\"_blank\">US State Secretary John Kerry warned<\/a> that such \u2018escalatory action will only increase tensions in the region and create risks of an incident\u2019. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.defense.gov\/news\/newsarticle.aspx?id=121223\" target=\"_blank\">Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel declared<\/a> the ADIZ a \u2018destabilizing attempt to alter the status quo in the region\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>The ADIZ is problematic indeed. The rules demand that all aircraft flying in the ADIZ are required to notify flight plans to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, respond to orders by Chinese authorities during the flight, and face military action in case of non-compliance. Rule number three specifically states that \u2018China\u2019s armed forces will adopt defensive emergency measures to respond to aircraft that do not cooperate in identification or refuse to follow the instructions\u2019. China provided a very <a href=\"http:\/\/english.cntv.cn\/20131123\/101943.shtml\" target=\"_blank\">assertive understanding of an ADIZ<\/a>, defining it as \u2018an area of air space established by a coastal state beyond its territorial airspace to timely identify, monitor, control and react to aircraft entering this zone with potential air threats\u2019. In contrast, the Pentagon sees it as an \u2018airspace of defined dimensions within which the ready identification, location, and control of airborne vehicles are required\u2019. As Secretary Kerry stressed, the US also \u2018does not apply its ADIZ procedures on foreign aircraft not intending to enter U.S. national airspace\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>In sum, China\u2019s ADIZ undermines the freedom of overflight in East Asia. But there are at least four even broader strategic implications.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>First<i>, <\/i>forget China\u2019s \u2018<a href=\"http:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/articles\/61015\/zheng-bijian\/chinas-peaceful-rise-to-great-power-status\" target=\"_blank\">peaceful rise<\/a>\u2019. Beijing\u2019s latest attempt of, as the <em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/china-must-rescind-its-air-zone-over-disputed-islands\/2013\/11\/25\/1ef02244-5613-11e3-8304-caf30787c0a9_story.html?wprss=rss_opinions\" target=\"_blank\">New York Times<\/a><\/em> called it, \u2018asserting sovereignty\u2019 is part of a larger pattern of a more assertive Chinese strategic posture.\u00a0 As its power grows, China feels increasingly emboldened to use coercive action to claim what it considers to be its \u2018spheres of influence\u2019. First the \u2018<a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-new-map-just-another-dash\/\" target=\"_blank\">nine-dash line\u2019<\/a> in the South China Sea, now the ADIZ in the East China Sea. What\u2019s next? Earlier this year, some Chinese intellectuals and senior military officials <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2013\/may\/15\/china-okinawa-dispute-japan-ryukyu\" target=\"_blank\">claimed sovereignty over Japan\u2019s Ryukyu Islands<\/a>. Seemingly undisturbed by growing regional concerns about its long-term strategic intentions, Beijing demonstrates again that it <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/chinarealtime\/2013\/11\/25\/watch-this-space-chinas-new-air-defense-zone\/\" target=\"_blank\">doesn&#8217;t fully adhere to existing international norms and standards<\/a>. As regional countries respond, the balance between cooperation and competition among the major powers in Asia will become even more volatile.<\/p>\n<p>Second, if this is what China\u2019s Premier Xi Jinping had in mind when he talked about a \u2018<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nbr.org\/publications\/asia_policy\/free\/ap16\/AP16_NewRelationship_050813advance.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">new type of great power relationship<\/a>\u2019 between Beijing and Washington, thanks but no thanks. The incompatibility between US and Chinese approaches to norms and behaviour in the Asia\u2013Pacific couldn&#8217;t be clearer. As well, the ADIZ forced the US to declare support for its Japanese ally and to reiterate its position that \u2018Article V of the <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikisource.org\/wiki\/Treaty_of_Mutual_Cooperation_and_Security_between_Japan_and_the_United_States_of_America\" target=\"_blank\">U.S.-Japan Mutual Defense Treaty<\/a> applies to the Senkaku Islands\u2019. Further alarmed by China\u2019s behaviour, US allies and partners will be driven even closer to Washington and towards strengthening their military capabilities. Beijing appears willing to do all it can to promote Sino-US strategic rivalry.<\/p>\n<p>Third, the risk of serious accidents and miscalculations increases. By establishing the ADIZ, <a href=\"http:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2013\/11\/china-imposes-restrictions-on-air-space-over-senkaku-islands\/\" target=\"_blank\">Beijing is extending the ongoing skirmish with Japan<\/a> over the Senkaku\/ Diaoyu islands from the maritime domain into air space. The risk is high since the Chinese military might soon feel the pressure of being seen like a paper tiger, unable or unwilling to impose the rules. The US military already called its bluff by sending <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2013\/11\/27\/world\/asia\/us-flies-b-52s-into-chinas-expanded-air-defense-zone.html?hpw&amp;rref=world&amp;_r=0\" target=\"_blank\">two B-52 Bombers<\/a> through the air zone without notifying Beijing and declaring that it won\u2019t change this practice. Yet, to avoid looking weak, the PLA might decide to take more risks in the future, with potentially serious consequences.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, there are strategic ramifications for Australia. One positive implication is that the ADIZ will probably lead to <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.cfr.org\/asia\/2013\/11\/26\/washington-rediscovers-asia\/\" target=\"_blank\">renewed US engagement in Asia<\/a>, after the second Obama administration appeared to take its eyes of the ball when it came to implementing the \u2018rebalance\u2019 towards Asia. At the same time, however, it could become much harder for the new Abbott government to chart a course between the US and China. Indeed, the government sees eye-to-eye with the US and Japan when it comes to future security order in Asia, raising the possibility of closer trilateral defence cooperation and a deeper Australian involvement in East Asia. In contrast, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.smh.com.au\/federal-politics\/political-news\/beijing-furious-over-julie-bishops-irresponsible---remarks-20131127-2ya2q.html\" target=\"_blank\">Beijing already reacted angrily to Canberra taking sides<\/a>, signalling the possibility of frostier Sino-Australian ties. In a more competitive Asia, Australia will be increasingly forced to show its colours.<\/p>\n<p><em>Benjamin Schreer is a senior analyst at ASPI. Image courtesy of United States Air Force <a href=\"http:\/\/commons.wikimedia.org\/wiki\/File:B-52_and_B-2.jpg\" target=\"_blank\">via Wikimedia Commons<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On 23 November, Beijing declared an East China Sea Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), which not only overlaps significantly with Japan\u2019s but also with Taiwan\u2019s and South Korea\u2019s ADIZs. While the Chinese Ministry of Defense\u00a0insists &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":11044,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,135,27,21,31],"class_list":["post-11043","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-japan","tag-northeast-asia","tag-strategy-2","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Peaceful rise, anyone? 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