{"id":11128,"date":"2013-12-02T13:35:29","date_gmt":"2013-12-02T02:35:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=11128"},"modified":"2013-12-03T09:54:30","modified_gmt":"2013-12-02T22:54:30","slug":"anzus-indonesia-and-the-pottery-barn-rule","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/anzus-indonesia-and-the-pottery-barn-rule\/","title":{"rendered":"ANZUS, Indonesia and the Pottery Barn rule"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"U.S.<\/a>In the words of my namesake, <\/i>Washington has exposed one of The Things We Dare Not Tell<\/a>. We all know and accept that Australia spies on foreign leaders, but like Fight Club, the first rule about spying is we don\u2019t talk about spying. It\u2019s bipartisan.<\/p>\n

Too often overlooked in the current debate is that a serious security blunder by the NSA\u2014and therefore the Obama administration\u2014is largely responsible for derailing the Abbott Coalition Government\u2019s promising early courtship of Jakarta.<\/p>\n

Imagine if the situation were reversed. At the very least, Colin Powell\u2019s Pottery Barn rule<\/a> should apply: you break it, you buy it. The pressing question should therefore be: how does Washington<\/i> help to clean up this mess?<\/p>\n

John Kerry\u2019s recent success<\/a> in the Middle East has highlighted the utility of traditional, discreet shuttle diplomacy. I argue that a similar effort by the United States could serve as a circuit breaker in our current imbroglio with Jakarta, or at least help stem the bleeding and speed the natural rate of recovery. It is in everyone\u2019s interests for US policymakers at the very highest level to help mediate, stabilise and defuse the escalating spat between two of its most critical\u00a0<\/a>long-term partners in the Indo-Pacific. Here\u2019s why.<\/p>\n

With only a small fraction of the Snowden material<\/a> in the public domain, this problem has the potential to fester and even grow. It undermines Australia\u2019s most crucial regional relationship\u2014past<\/a>, present<\/a> and future<\/a>.<\/p>\n

To some in Washington this may seem like \u2018herding cats\u2019<\/a>\u2014yet such efforts are critical in forging links between the \u2018spokes\u2019 of the Asian regional system of alliances of which it has long been the \u2018hub\u2019. This \u2018thickening\u2019 of Washington\u2019s web in Southeast Asia is particularly important as events further north heat up<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Intervening to smooth relations between Jakarta and Canberra thus presents Washington with low hanging fruit\u2014fostering stability and strategic depth in Australia\u2019s immediate neighbourhood enables it to focus on more pressing challenges in the wider region. While the upcoming Indonesian elections will undoubtedly draw out and complicate this effort, the prospect of more than 300 convicted terrorists being released<\/a> from Indonesian gaols over the next year should at least partially offset this.<\/p>\n

Such a concerted American diplomatic initiative falls in line with the recommendations of a new CNAS report<\/a> on the politics of America’s regional force posture. The report makes the important, yet oft-overlooked argument that while strategic threats may open the door for the US to deepen existing security ties and help foster new ones, their long-term viability rests on \u2018conducive political environments in partner countries.\u2019<\/p>\n

Australia should play its part in encouraging this, given the on-going need to broaden the foundation of its security from an over-reliance on the US to being part of a wider security architecture, along with other partners like Indonesia<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Washington has form in using its unmatched gravitas and leverage in the role of discreet mediator<\/a>. During the East Timor crisis of 1999-2000, and crucially, before the Australia-led UN force under Major-General Peter Cosgrove landed in Dili on September 20th<\/sup> 1999, American leaders at the very highest levels personally intervened to contain the tensions between Canberra and Jakarta. This concerted effort included phone calls, diplomatic cables and private meetings conducted by President Bill Clinton, Secretary of State Madeline Albright, Secretary of Defense William Cohen, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Henry Shelton.<\/p>\n

While that earlier crisis was more serious than that faced today, it demonstrates the value of Washington\u2019s diplomatic support at the highest level. The Clinton administration was reluctant to pressure Indonesia, yet when it did, it was critical to secure the success of the Australian-led operation.<\/p>\n

This was acknowledged by then-Governor George W. Bush during a US Presidential election debate<\/a> on October 12th<\/sup> 2000. He answered a question from moderator Jim Lehrer about foreign intervention:<\/p>\n

I thought the best example of a way to handle a situation was East Timor, when we provided logistical support to the Australians, support that only we can provide. I thought that was a good model..<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Fast-forward to today, and if we are to truly believe that the point made<\/a> by American officials that the \u2018Pivot\u2019 really is a whole-of-government \u2018rebalance\u2019, then we should ask to see their diplomatic clout bought to bear. Indeed, Rory Medcalf was right<\/a> when arguing that the purpose of Australia\u2019s alliance with the US is not predetermined and limited to military conflict.<\/p>\n

Washington\u2019s shuttle diplomacy in this mess would give weight to the declaration by elements of the US commentariat that Australia has moved from \u2018down under\u2019 to \u2018top center\u2019 in terms of geopolitical import<\/a>, and that \u2018The Pivot Starts Now\u2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Henry Lawton has recently completed an MPhil in International Relations at the University of Cambridge. His dissertation examined the ANZUS alliance, with particular reference to Indonesia. Image courtesy of U.S. Department of State<\/a>.
\n<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the words of my namesake, Washington has exposed one of The Things We Dare Not Tell. We all know and accept that Australia spies on foreign leaders, but like Fight Club, the first rule …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":196,"featured_media":11130,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[131,624,8,636,31],"class_list":["post-11128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-anzus","tag-espionage","tag-indonesia","tag-spying","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nANZUS, Indonesia and the Pottery Barn rule | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/anzus-indonesia-and-the-pottery-barn-rule\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ANZUS, Indonesia and the Pottery Barn rule | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In the words of my namesake, Washington has exposed one of The Things We Dare Not Tell. 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