{"id":11369,"date":"2013-12-13T14:15:14","date_gmt":"2013-12-13T03:15:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=11369"},"modified":"2013-12-16T09:27:56","modified_gmt":"2013-12-15T22:27:56","slug":"reader-response-decoding-the-defence-minister-getting-serious-about-asia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/reader-response-decoding-the-defence-minister-getting-serious-about-asia\/","title":{"rendered":"Reader response: decoding the Defence Minister: getting serious about Asia"},"content":{"rendered":"
Benjamin Schreer\u2019s decoding of the Defence Minister’s speech<\/a> at ASPI’s National Security Dinner smokes any number of rabbits out of their burrows. Perhaps the most enticing of these rodents is the question of what the Minister’s speech means for strategic policy and the development of ADF force structure.<\/p>\n It’s apparent that the rise of China is already generating strategic repercussions throughout the Indo-Pacific region; at perhaps a faster pace than might have been expected. Ben’s correct to link these to consequences for Australia\u2019s strategic policy. The strategic environment is changing and both nation and government might be expected to respond in some measure. I’ve recently speculated about the consequences of a changing Australian\/Indonesian strategic relationship<\/a> and argued that they’re similarly profound.<\/p>\n What remains to be seen is whether the process of strategic policy making can be focused with sufficient clarity to correctly deduce the substantive changes needed in the structure and posture of the Australian Defence Force. It may be the intention of Minister Johnston to increase the readiness of ADF force elements and focus preparedness on the more challenging aspects of combat, but there’s another rabbit running around that complicates such straight forward desires.<\/p>\n This is the financial situation facing defence that, as reported in Patrick Walters\u2019 post<\/a>, is currently at its lowest level as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product since the Second World War. Circumstances, especially what the Minister describes as the difficult state of government finances (that is, the declining Commonwealth revenue base) mean that correcting the situation will be difficult and is as yet without a likely outcome. For the foreseeable future, options for strategic policy and the consequent management of its objectives will be significantly constrained.<\/p>\n Experience has shown that it’s difficult to quantify levels of readiness required for possible military operations. What Ben calls the concept of ‘defence self-reliance’ has evolved as a policy tool that allows the evaluation of priorities in allocating resources to various defence capabilities, their sustainment and their preparedness. The Defence organisation has a long way to go in assessing the true costs of capability development<\/a>, let alone in developing the tools that will enable it to assess and cost the options for a more active and challenging strategic objective for the ADF.<\/p>\n One thing that would seem more certain is that whatever the developments in strategic policy, they won’t represent a return to forward defence. The era of emerging ex-colonial states, yet to develop a national identity, and of superpower client regimes is over. Any attempt to develop cooperative defence arrangements with countries in the Indo-Pacific will be made with independent countries protecting their own interests, pursuing their own objectives and, on occasions, at odds with each other.<\/p>\n Nonetheless, enhancing defence relationships with regional countries has been a fruitful exercise. It’s not a new idea; a deliberate policy of building defence relationships with Asian nations was initiated as far back as the 1994 defence white paper Defending Australia<\/i>. Evolution has been bumpy but nonetheless persistent; today it includes regular interaction at military and civilian level with most regional nations.<\/p>\n