{"id":12034,"date":"2014-02-03T06:00:35","date_gmt":"2014-02-02T19:00:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=12034"},"modified":"2014-02-04T09:59:03","modified_gmt":"2014-02-03T22:59:03","slug":"tony-abbott-and-the-thatcher-view","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/tony-abbott-and-the-thatcher-view\/","title":{"rendered":"Tony Abbott and the Thatcher view"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Prime<\/a><\/p>\n

While Tony Abbot calls John Howard his mentor, it\u2019s worth considering the impact on the Abbott universe of another political warrior whose profile was always instantly recognisable.<\/p>\n

The warrior\u2019s hair was perfect as a helmet, the head and body usually leant forward when walking or still, the eyes and nose ever-alert to detect political peril or party advantage\u2014 and always the handbag that doubled as sceptre.<\/p>\n

Step forward Margaret Thatcher, with some words of wisdom for the Abbott government, via her two memoirs and her book on international strategy,\u00a0Statecraft<\/i> (which Mrs T said could just as easily be called Power).<\/p>\n

Thatcher figured in this column last month<\/a> as the winner of our annual award for the use of symbol, stunt, prop, gesture or jest in international affairs. Turn to her now for some help in mapping the mind and underlying assumptions of Australia\u2019s Prime Minister. In understanding that mental universe, it\u2019s probably as useful to read Thatcher\u2019s memoirs or John Howard\u2019s Lazarus Rising<\/i><\/a> as it is to read Abbott\u2019s manifesto, Battlelines<\/i><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Abbott has taken a bit of stick<\/a> for the simplicity of the messages he imparted<\/a> to the annual elite-fest in Davos. Bromides always matter, however, because they tend to be statements of base beliefs.\u00a0Put on the Thatcherite glasses and Abbott\u2019s statement-in-the-snow shifts from clich\u00e9s to verities. You can almost hear Mrs T\u2019s voice delivering Abbott\u2019s thoughts on freer trade and smaller government and empowered citizens: \u2018You can\u2019t spend what you haven\u2019t got. No country has ever taxed or subsidised its way to prosperity\u2019. And there was a certain Thatcher flavour in Abbott proclaiming that the G20 summit he will chair this year must be all about trade and not a talkfest.<\/p>\n

So, drawing on Thatcher\u2019s three tomes, here are some thoughts from Chairman Maggie that might help the Prime Minister\u2014 or assist the rest of us to see where he might be going.<\/p>\n

Thatcher\u2019s Law: <\/span><\/b>\u00a0A version of \u2018events, dear boy, events\u2019, Thatcher\u2019s Law is simplicity itself: The unexpected happens. The real test is how you cope. She links this to her rendering of Rumsfeld\u2019s<\/a> known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns. The Thatcher version: \u2018It is always important in matters of high politics to know what you do not know. Those who think they know, but are mistaken, and act upon their mistakes, are the most dangerous people to have in charge\u2019.<\/p>\n

The United States:<\/span> <\/b>\u2018America alone has the moral as well as the material capacity for world leadership … America\u2019s closest allies, particularly her allies in the English-speaking world, must regard America\u2019s mission as encompassing their own.\u2019 This is the territory ASPI touched on<\/a> in \u2018Keep calm and carry on: Reflections on the Anglosphere\u2019.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s part of the context for Foreign Minister Julie Bishop\u2019s twin US speeches<\/a>\u00a0about America as Oz\u2019s greatest alliance partner and (adding in investment) anointing the US<\/a> as Oz\u2019s greatest economic partner, trumping China<\/a>.<\/p>\n

China: <\/span><\/b>\u00a0From the Hong Kong negotiations, Thatcher saw China as \u2018an intransigent and overwhelmingly superior power\u2019. A sense of China\u2019s innate superiority jostles with vulnerability and past humiliation: \u2018How to assess, predict and influence this new would-be superpower of bloody lineage and uncertain intentions. … The history of China in the 20th<\/sup> century is, after all, a series of attempts to break with the past … But change is often more apparent than real. The modernisers in power always seem to be repeating, more or less consciously, episodes of the past\u2019. And the pithy Thatcher depiction of China, ultimately, as a status quo power: \u2018China today exports televisions not ideas\u2019.<\/p>\n

The danger of diplomats and Foreign Affairs: <\/span><\/b>\u00a0Beware the diplomats who have a \u2018reluctance to subordinate diplomatic tactics to the national interest and an insatiable appetite for nuances and conditions which can blur the clearest vision\u2019.<\/p>\n

Defence: <\/span><\/b>\u2018Democracies are actually quite good at fighting wars \u2013 as a series of dictators over the years have learned to their cost. Where democratic political leaderships are weak, however, is in their capacity for continuous military preparedness.\u2019<\/p>\n

Politicians: <\/span><\/b>\u00a0\u00a0\u2018Although in my experience there are few politicians for whom doing the right thing is of no importance, there are fewer still for whom it is the only consideration.\u2019<\/p>\n

Policy making:<\/span><\/b> The decisive influences in making policy can never be theoretical or technical but must be personal and political. And no amount of institutional neatness can resolve fundamental questions. There\u2019s nothing like a good argument.<\/p>\n

Leader summits: <\/span><\/b>\u00a0\u2018The underlying realities of power are not transformed by meetings and understandings between heads of government. … The twin, opposing, temptations of the statesman are hubris and timidity.\u2019 Yet it\u2019s still important to go and look another leader in the eye to find \u2018…the personal chemistry which exists between those who conduct their nation\u2019s affairs. I found myself liking and respecting \u2013 and sometimes heartily disliking and distrusting \u2013 heads of government not just as politicians but as people\u2019.<\/p>\n

On summit consensus:<\/span><\/b> Thatcher quotes a fellow leader at a Commonwealth summit commenting that consensus is what you get if you can\u2019t get agreement. Her translation: \u2018To me consensus seems to be the process of abandoning all beliefs, principles, values and policies in search of something in which no one believes, but to which no one objects\u2019.<\/p>\n

Thatcherism is strong medicine that needs to be mediated by local conditions when applied in the antipodes. The classic example is John Howard, in his first term as Opposition Leader, visiting Mrs T in London when she had, as he writes, \u2018reached the zenith of her power and influence among centre-right adherents around the world\u2019. Howard returned with true-believer fire blazing in his belly, determined to fight for the Right in every sense; the Libs took fright and deposed him as leader and it was a long time before he got a rare second chance. As Mrs T advised when going up against the British miners, always be careful about how and when you pick your fights.<\/p>\n

Graeme Dobell is the ASPI journalism fellow. Image courtesy of Flickr user<\/em> World Economic Forum<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

While Tony Abbot calls John Howard his mentor, it\u2019s worth considering the impact on the Abbott universe of another political warrior whose profile was always instantly recognisable. 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