{"id":12659,"date":"2014-03-11T13:30:31","date_gmt":"2014-03-11T02:30:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=12659"},"modified":"2014-03-12T08:34:16","modified_gmt":"2014-03-11T21:34:16","slug":"imitation-to-innovation-the-strategic-implications-of-chinas-rd-trends","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/imitation-to-innovation-the-strategic-implications-of-chinas-rd-trends\/","title":{"rendered":"Imitation to innovation: the strategic implications of China\u2019s R&D trends"},"content":{"rendered":"

The United States has long been the leader of global innovation, but a recent report<\/a> (PDF) by the National Science Board (the advisory board to the President on research in science and engineering) suggests that America\u2019s innovation advantage is slipping. Knowledge-based economic activity is gradually shifting towards Asia, and in particular China\u2014America’s greatest strategic competitor. While America\u2019s strength in science and technology will continue for decades, China is now in an enviable position. After all, growing pains are preferable to the aches and pains of an old man.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s research and development (R&D) activity is growing impressively across a number of indicators. This includes its share of global high-technology economic output, which has risen sharply from 8% in 2003 to 24% in 2012. The graph below demonstrates current trends in this area:<\/p>\n

Output of high technology industries 1997\u20132012\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Graph<\/a>Source: US National Science Foundation Science and<\/i> Engineering<\/em> Indicators 2014<\/i><\/a> <\/i>(p.5)<\/p>\n

Another indicator of China\u2019s R&D growth is \u2018R&D intensity\u2019\u2014a measurement of R&D expenditure against GDP. While China started from a low base of 0.5% of GDP in 1996, it has now surpassed Europe<\/a>, and has grown steadily to 1.98% of GDP in 2012. China\u2019s output of scientific publications during the economic downturn has been described as \u2018striking\u2019<\/a> (PDF, p. 21) and the global influence of these publications has increased. China now has a higher number of college graduates\u2014a large proportion with engineering degrees\u2014who can explore advanced research challenges in future.<\/p>\n

As David Hale said in China’s New Dream<\/i><\/a>,<\/i> \u2018if China becomes no.\u00a01 in global R&D spending, it will shift from being an assembler of imported components into a leader in the creation and design of new\u00a0products\u2019. Leading the innovation charge is China\u2019s private technology industry, which boasts some of the fastest growing global companies. Tencent Holdings<\/a>\u2014owner of social media apps WeChat and QQ\u2014has a similar market capitalisation to Facebook, while telecommunications giant Huawei is challenging industry leaders<\/a> (PDF). The main drivers of innovation will continue to be access to new technologies and new markets, areas where Chinese companies are accelerating. Some observers have already heralded the \u2018rise of China\u2019s innovation machine\u2019<\/a> (paywalled).<\/p>\n

Political and military leaders are taking inspiration from China\u2019s technological change. China\u2019s defence sector once relied almost solely on foreign expertise, obtaining key technologies from advanced nations of the world. The development of the Chinese version of the Russian Su-27 fighter and the indigenous J-10 fighter both relied heavily on foreign design expertise and industry experience. Until recently, in the minds of many PLA officials, it was far easier to \u2018obtain jade from the rocks of other mountains\u2019 (\u4ed6\u5c71\u4e4b\u77f3\u53ef\u4ee5\u653b\u7389), through legitimate means or otherwise. However, indigenous defence production has always been the long-term aspiration of China\u2019s defence strategy.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s defence industry is already showing signs of the benefits of R&D spending. The production of increasingly advanced weapons such as the recently discussed hypersonic glide vehicle<\/a>, the Dong Feng 21D anti-ship ballistic missile<\/a>, and the Chengdu J-20 fifth-generation fighter aircraft<\/a> show the once laggard industry is making real progress. Today, the trend in China\u2019s military modernisation is less imitation and more innovation. The<\/i> Military<\/em> Balance 2014<\/i><\/a> noted that China\u2019s \u2018indigenous defence industry has played an increasing role in providing military equipment\u2019. Selective modernisation programs in aerospace, missile and IT industries, increased civil-military integration, and bolstered R&D expenditure place China in a better position to realise independence in defence production.<\/p>\n

This has strategic implications for defence planners, not least in the US. Development of indigenous technology that targets potential adversaries\u2019 weaknesses brings into question assured US military access into the western Pacific. Anti-access\/area-denial technology is dramatically improving, and modernisation of the People\u2019s Liberation Army with a focus on \u2018posing problems without catching up\u2019<\/a> is complicating US force projection today. However, translating untested equipment into capability is a real test. It\u2019ll take China many more decades to develop the operational abilities and military skills that take full advantage of technological development.<\/p>\n

China is narrowing the gap when it comes to spending on R&D, with considerable potential for increasing national power. China encourages high-tech industry, not just to bolster its economy, but also to increase influence and autonomy. Chinese strategists have recognised that global powers like the US possess more than military clout, having strength in many areas, or \u2018comprehensive power\u2019 (\u7efc\u5408\u56fd\u529b). The ability to convert resources into innovation into influence is a distinguishing feature of rising powers. As President Obama said in his 2014 State of the Union address<\/a>, \u2018the nation that goes all-in on innovation today will own the global economy tomorrow\u2019. China is clearly listening.<\/p>\n

Simon Hansen is an intern in ASPI\u2019s\u00a0International Cyber Policy Centre<\/a>.<\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The United States has long been the leader of global innovation, but a recent report (PDF) by the National Science Board (the advisory board to the President on research in science and engineering) suggests that …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":214,"featured_media":12661,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[33,52,722,721,332],"class_list":["post-12659","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-capability","tag-china","tag-innovation","tag-research-development","tag-technology"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nImitation to innovation: the strategic implications of China\u2019s R&D trends | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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