candid comment<\/a> from Katrina Macfarland, US Assistant Secretary of Defence (Acquisition), that the rebalance to Asia \u2018can\u2019t happen\u2019 because of budgetary pressures. It\u2019s unwise to put too much emphasis on any one official\u2019s comments, and she later clarified this remark insisting that the rebalance can and will continue, but the slip will only augment concerns across the region that the \u2018rebalance\u2019 has less meaning to it than US official statements would suggest. At one point in the QDR executive summary, the authors state that the US is exploring \u2018new presence paradigms\u2019, a phrase suggesting that the evolution away from major basing and towards a more rotational presence will continue. That\u2019s not exactly a new approach: it dates back at least to the time (almost a decade ago) when Americans spoke about the increasing need for \u2018lily pads\u2019 rather than major facilities abroad. But it does suggest the Americans are looking to economise on how they adjust their strategic footprint in Asia.<\/p>\nI\u2019ve previously argued that the US footprint is changing in response to a shifting strategic centre of gravity in Asia: that northeast Asia is no longer quite so dominant in its strategic weighting, and that the rise of China, India and Southeast Asia is pulling the centre of gravity south-westward. The effect is to pull US presence in the same direction, towards Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean, so the rebalance isn\u2019t only to<\/i> Asia but within<\/i> Asia. And that suggests the new presence paradigms will be unpacked in our sub-region. So this is a topic we might want to explore more closely with Washington. In essence, what will those new paradigms mean for US presence? The US marine deployment to the Top End, for example, isn\u2019t a permanent presence, since there would be little point in having the marines there during the wet season. By contrast, the planned move of 4,000 US marines from Okinawa to \u00a0Guam and another 2,000-3,000 to Hawaii does look a little more permanent, even if the moves remain the subject of funding battles in Congress.<\/p>\n
For some Southeast Asian countries, wary of being tied too closely to the US, the new paradigms might well be politically more acceptable than a heavier footprint. Singapore, for example, is too small to host a heavier footprint. The Philippines has a chequered connection, and might find a lighter footprint more tolerable. The same can probably be said for both Indonesia and Vietnam. But it does leave unanswered the big question: what will the future US presence in Southeast Asia look like, and what role will Australia be willing to play to support it? In his concluding chapter to the QDR, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Martin Dempsey, talks about differing forms of presence: permanent presence, prepositioned presence, rotational presence and surge capability. Perhaps, as the strategic future unfolds, we might be helping the US in all those areas.<\/p>\n
Rod Lyon is a fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and an adjunct associate professor at the Griffith Asia Institute<\/em>. Image courtesy of Flickr user Office of the Secretary of Defense.<\/em><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Readers of the recently released US Quadrennial Defence Review will be struck by one major characteristic: namely, a fondness for the notion of \u2018rebalancing\u2019. Asian readers looking for signals of the Obama administration\u2019s commitment to …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":12844,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[120,723,378,31],"class_list":["post-12843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-budget","tag-quadrennial-defense-review","tag-rebalance","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
The Quadrennial Defence Review: a surfeit of rebalancing | The Strategist<\/title>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\t \n\t \n\t \n \n \n \n \n \n\t \n\t \n\t \n