{"id":12941,"date":"2014-03-21T06:00:45","date_gmt":"2014-03-20T19:00:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=12941"},"modified":"2015-04-27T12:36:58","modified_gmt":"2015-04-27T02:36:58","slug":"graph-of-the-week-f-35-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/graph-of-the-week-f-35-update\/","title":{"rendered":"Graph of the week: F-35 update"},"content":{"rendered":"

The National Security Committee of cabinet will soon consider a submission from Defence regarding the proposed approval of a buy of (probably) 58 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters in addition to the 14 already approved.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll be publishing a discussion paper on Monday that looks at the pros and cons of that proposition. And it won\u2019t be a surprise that one of the major issues will be the state of the F-35 development and production program. The F-35 and the process of developing it have been subject to some trenchant criticism over the years\u2014and with good reason. The performance of the prime contractor has left much to be desired at times, and the apparently hands-off management practiced by the Pentagon in the early years led to a series of cost increases and schedule slippages.<\/p>\n

Some of those trends weren\u2019t surprising, as early estimates of costs were well below the historical trend for combat aircraft. (The most recent ones certainly aren\u2019t.) And the joint development of three very different variants\u2014one for conventional takeoff and landing, one designed for carrier operations and a \u2018jump jet\u2019 for the US Marines\u2014meant that initial schedules were seriously optimistic.<\/p>\n

But some of the underperformance could squarely be sheeted home to poor program management. Combined with a tendency of those involved in program management and execution to downplay all of the increasingly obvious problems, a serious credibility issue developed. Some of us got to the point where a comment from an F-35 spokesman that it was a nice day would require confirmation from the US Government Accountability Office.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s all part of what the now head of program Lt General Chris Bogdan\u00a0 described here in Australia last week as the \u2018tragic history\u2019 of the F-35 program. But he also went on to describe a much tighter management approach today that has seen much improved performance against the program\u2019s 2011 revised milestones. Let\u2019s see what this year\u2019s Pentagon budget papers<\/a>\u2014released last week\u2014have to say about that.<\/p>\n

Last year<\/a> I presented some graphs of the history of US Air Force F-35 budget plans going back to 2006. They showed a pretty clear picture of the history as described above, but also hinted at a more stable present. This year\u2019s figures reinforce that view.<\/p>\n

The first chart (click to enlarge) shows the budget cost planning figures for each of the budgets since the 2008 financial year request (in March 2007). The three phases\u2014I’ve labelled them \u2018early optimism\u2019, \u2018reality intervenes\u2019 and \u2018recent stability\u2019\u2014are clearly visible. For aircraft purchased later this decade, as Australia\u2019s planning to do, there\u2019s been little change in the last three budget cycles. (All prices in 2014 US$ millions.)<\/p>\n

\"F35-Graph-1\"<\/a><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

The second chart shows the planned cumulative production numbers of the Air Force variant. The same three phases are obvious.<\/p>\n

\"F35<\/a><\/p>\n

The same conclusion as last year applies\u2014where the F-35 is concerned, the US Air Force is determined to put its money where its mouth is these days. Given the difficult budget environment in Washington, that\u2019s no small vote of confidence.<\/p>\n

Of course, there are factors other than program stability to be considered when deciding whether to spend billions of taxpayer\u2019s dollars. We\u2019ll come back to those next week.<\/p>\n

Disclosure: Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor on the F-35 program, is a corporate sponsor of ASPI.<\/em><\/p>\n

Andrew Davies is senior analyst for defence capability at ASPI and executive editor of\u00a0<\/em><\/em><\/em>The Strategist.<\/em><\/em><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The National Security Committee of cabinet will soon consider a submission from Defence regarding the proposed approval of a buy of (probably) 58 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters in addition to the 14 already approved. 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