{"id":13295,"date":"2014-04-09T14:30:58","date_gmt":"2014-04-09T04:30:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=13295"},"modified":"2014-04-10T12:24:05","modified_gmt":"2014-04-10T02:24:05","slug":"oz-submarines-12-9-6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/oz-submarines-12-9-6\/","title":{"rendered":"Oz submarines: 12? 9? 6?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"The<\/a><\/figure>\n

The answer to the headline question is now six. To be clear, that’s my answer. The Defence Minister, David Johnston, says\u00a0the cost of 12 subs \u2018is just not achievable\u2019. So six subs starts to look like the number to replace the existing six.<\/p>\n

The promise of 12 new submarines in Labor\u2019s two Defence white papers is submerging. In fact, consider it just about sunk.<\/p>\n

The Abbott government is to \u2018re-examine\u2019 the number of submarines needed. That\u2019s a line from the Defence Minister in what he described as his \u2018carefully-written speech\u2019 and is the first major defence announcement from the new government. Not a thought bubble, but something that edges beyond a signal towards an announcement.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the key numbers quote from Senator Johnston<\/a>\u00a0(PDF):<\/p>\n

There has been a lot of speculation about whether we need 12 boats. Let me make clear that my primary focus isn\u2019t on numbers but on the capability and availability of boats required to meet the tasks set by government. As part of the white paper process we\u2019ll re-examine the strategic objectives of the future submarine program, including the number of submarines required at sea and therefore the total number of submarines.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Let ASPI give you the dollars-and-sense context that\u2019s driving the dollars-and-cents submarine calculation. Peter Jennings\u2019 has written about the cost of 12 subs crowding out other defence aspirations, raising the danger of the Australian Defence Force becoming a \u2018one trick pony\u2019.<\/p>\n

ASPI Chairman Stephen Loosley argues<\/a> that the scale of the 12-submarine ambition is overshadowing and distorting all other areas of defence planning. His answer is to sink the 12-boat target and opt for six, with the option for perhaps three more, as the best answer to Australia\u2019s need for a deterrent capability:<\/p>\n

In fact, 12 boats has locked policy up. Moving to six boats with an option for three more, depending upon the technology that comes on\u2013stream, would afford both more flexibility and more time to distil and refine options over the life of the program, from an evolved Collis design to the purchase of an existing European or Japanese model.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The dollars-and-sense context is laying down some firm rails for the number of subs that\u2019ll surface in the Defence white paper the Abbott government will deliver next year<\/a>. That was the message Senator Johnston kept coming back to in his doorstop with journalists after his speech: don\u2019t focus on the number 12; focus on issues of capability and cost.<\/p>\n

The Defence Minister kept insisting numbers were the wrong measure: \u2018to put a number on the subs is a distraction\u2019 and \u2018successful players don\u2019t just go on numbers\u2019.<\/p>\n

But the number that really sinks 12 subs on the dollars-and-sense measure is the dollars-and-cents cost estimate of $40 billion, heading north towards $50 billion. As Senator Johnston observed to the assembled hacks:<\/p>\n

We have got to have something that fits into, and is cost effective, in the overall scheme of our fiscal management. You can\u2019t just go out and say we are going to have this many submarines and then someone pops up and says, \u201cWell, that\u2019s $40 billion.\u201d That\u2019s just not achievable. Now, we need submarines. But we\u2019ve got to do our homework, get it right. It\u2019s got to be cost effective.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The Defence Minister said he\u2019s still working on the two options bequeathed by Labor: a new submarine design or an evolved design \u2018that enhances the capabilities of existing off-the-shelf designs, including the Collins Class\u2019. On both the sense and cents measures, the evolved design is looking good while the new design asks for a huge leap of faith and funds.<\/p>\n

This morning Senator Johnston repeated his view that Japan\u2019s conventional sub is \u2018extraordinarily impressive\u2019 and is the closest design in the world to what Australia wants.<\/p>\n

Where does all this point? This hack\u2019s summation of where Australia seems to be heading in Peter Jennings\u2019 \u2018fog of policy\u2019: An evolved Collins Mk II with a Japanese diesel-electric drive chain and an American weapons system. And six of them\u2014at least to start with.<\/p>\n

Graeme Dobell is the ASPI journalism fellow. Image courtesy of Flickr user Myxi<\/a>.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The answer to the headline question is now six. To be clear, that’s my answer. The Defence Minister, David Johnston, says\u00a0the cost of 12 subs \u2018is just not achievable\u2019. So six subs starts to look …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":13298,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[465],"tags":[33,768,100,223],"class_list":["post-13295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-submarine-choice","tag-capability","tag-david-johnston","tag-minister-for-defence","tag-submarines"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOz submarines: 12? 9? 6? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/oz-submarines-12-9-6\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Oz submarines: 12? 9? 6? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The answer to the headline question is now six. To be clear, that’s my answer. The Defence Minister, David Johnston, says\u00a0the cost of 12 subs \u2018is just not achievable\u2019. So six subs starts to look ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/oz-submarines-12-9-6\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-04-09T04:30:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2014-04-10T02:24:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/3619050746_fbe0d3d799_z.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"428\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Graeme Dobell\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Graeme Dobell\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/oz-submarines-12-9-6\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/3619050746_fbe0d3d799_z.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/3619050746_fbe0d3d799_z.jpg\",\"width\":640,\"height\":428,\"caption\":\"The answer is 6\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/oz-submarines-12-9-6\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/oz-submarines-12-9-6\/\",\"name\":\"Oz submarines: 12? 9? 6? | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/oz-submarines-12-9-6\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2014-04-09T04:30:58+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2014-04-10T02:24:05+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/ed3342cd61abc65c1532f3cc46bdf96f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/oz-submarines-12-9-6\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/oz-submarines-12-9-6\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/oz-submarines-12-9-6\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Oz submarines: 12? 9? 6?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/ed3342cd61abc65c1532f3cc46bdf96f\",\"name\":\"Graeme Dobell\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dff56734d4df784248f63058b7b6900a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dff56734d4df784248f63058b7b6900a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Graeme Dobell\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/graeme-dobell\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Oz submarines: 12? 9? 6? | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/oz-submarines-12-9-6\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Oz submarines: 12? 9? 6? | The Strategist","og_description":"The answer to the headline question is now six. To be clear, that’s my answer. The Defence Minister, David Johnston, says\u00a0the cost of 12 subs \u2018is just not achievable\u2019. So six subs starts to look ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/oz-submarines-12-9-6\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2014-04-09T04:30:58+00:00","article_modified_time":"2014-04-10T02:24:05+00:00","og_image":[{"width":640,"height":428,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/3619050746_fbe0d3d799_z.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Graeme Dobell","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Graeme Dobell","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/oz-submarines-12-9-6\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/3619050746_fbe0d3d799_z.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/3619050746_fbe0d3d799_z.jpg","width":640,"height":428,"caption":"The answer is 6"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/oz-submarines-12-9-6\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/oz-submarines-12-9-6\/","name":"Oz submarines: 12? 9? 6? | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/oz-submarines-12-9-6\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2014-04-09T04:30:58+00:00","dateModified":"2014-04-10T02:24:05+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/ed3342cd61abc65c1532f3cc46bdf96f"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/oz-submarines-12-9-6\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/oz-submarines-12-9-6\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/oz-submarines-12-9-6\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Oz submarines: 12? 9? 6?"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/ed3342cd61abc65c1532f3cc46bdf96f","name":"Graeme Dobell","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dff56734d4df784248f63058b7b6900a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dff56734d4df784248f63058b7b6900a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Graeme Dobell"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/graeme-dobell\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13295"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/79"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13295"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13295\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13328,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13295\/revisions\/13328"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13298"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13295"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13295"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13295"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}