{"id":1345,"date":"2012-09-25T15:30:59","date_gmt":"2012-09-25T05:30:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=1345"},"modified":"2012-09-26T06:38:49","modified_gmt":"2012-09-25T20:38:49","slug":"mind-the-gap-mr-abbott","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/mind-the-gap-mr-abbott\/","title":{"rendered":"Mind the gap, Mr Abbott"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Tony<\/a><\/figure>\n

Tony Abbott\u2019s speech today to the RSL National Conference<\/a> sets out some important pointers on the shape of defence policy under a future Coalition government. On spending, it\u2019s been clear for some time that the Opposition had no intention of immediately reversing the cuts announced in the last budget. Abbott said:<\/p>\n

Any savings that the Coalition can find in the defence bureaucracy will be reinvested in greater military capacity. Our aspiration, as the Commonwealth\u2019s budgetary position improves, would be to restore the three per cent real growth in defence spending that marked the final seven years of the Howard government.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

An \u2018aspiration\u2019 to return to spending growth is better than no prospect of growth, but it holds out little hope for a return to growth soon<\/a>, and one must presume that the 3% growth will start from the newly established lower spending base. (See post below \u2018Table of the week\u2019 for a calculation of the effect of 3% real growth on the Defence budget.)It\u2019s to be expected that the Opposition would look to make savings from the defence bureaucracy but encouraging that no arbitrary saving figure was announced. Indeed Abbott\u2019s speech is remarkably cautious in the way it doesn\u2019t<\/em> commit to a number of iconic projects. There\u2019s no explicit commitment to twelve submarines or 100 Joint Strike Fighters, only a commitment to making decisions about them within 18 months of an election:<\/p>\n

This is not a decision \u2026 that can be made from opposition. Within 18 months of an election, an incoming Coalition government would make the short and medium term decisions necessary to ensure that Australia has no submarine capability gap.<\/p>\n

The other big procurement decision is the timing of our acquisition of the Joint Strike Fighter. Again, without detailed operational advice, this is not a decision that an opposition can make but we will make it within 18 months of a change of government.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Very sensibly the Opposition wants to look at the books and the detailed information held by the project office before making big decisions.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s an additional 18-month commitment in Abbott\u2019s speech:<\/p>\n

Within 18 months of an election, an incoming Coalition government would publish a new Defence White Paper with costed, affordable ways to meet Australia\u2019s defence and national security objectives.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

A change of government would therefore consign the projected 2013 White Paper to a shelf life of just months. Defence officials shouldn\u2019t despair though, because it\u2019s difficult to see major policy differences emerging. For example, Abbott anticipates \u2018basing more of our military forces in Northern Australia\u2019, which is hardly a million miles away from Stephen Smith\u2019s own thinking.<\/p>\n

The biggest commitment in Abbott\u2019s speech relates to submarines and ensuring \u2018\u2026 that Australia has no submarine capability gap.\u2019 Behind that simple sentence lies an enormously difficult task: how to span the widening gap<\/a> between the likely end of life of the Collins boats and the Sea 1000 replacement. That will be the big capability task over the next few years. An interim submarine capability, either in the form of a life-of-type extension for Collins or a rapid acquisition of another type, will absorb every aspirational Defence spending increase that can be thrown at it. It\u2019s a critical task and work on it can\u2019t start soon enough.<\/p>\n

Peter Jennings<\/a>\u00a0is executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Image courtesy of Flickr user Royal Australian Navy<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tony Abbott\u2019s speech today to the RSL National Conference sets out some important pointers on the shape of defence policy under a future Coalition government. 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