{"id":14349,"date":"2014-06-12T14:45:15","date_gmt":"2014-06-12T04:45:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=14349"},"modified":"2014-06-16T10:25:38","modified_gmt":"2014-06-16T00:25:38","slug":"chinas-peaceful-rise-into-pieces","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-peaceful-rise-into-pieces\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s peaceful rise into pieces"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"16th<\/a>China has gone from peaceful rise to rising by pieces, as it smashes the nascent regional security order. Not much peace in prospect as China forcefully asserts its ownership over pieces of the East China and South China Seas.<\/p>\n

The irony is that the Asian order China\u2019s ramming<\/a> is one that has been a soft system, demanding little of Beijing and subject to Beijing\u2019s effective veto. Beijing\u2019s going from veto to vandal in an Asia system that has evolved in a China-friendly way for two decades. Driven by ASEAN, it has been a new order created by Asians for Asia. Mark that as another irony, with President Xi Jinping a fortnight ago arguing<\/a> that\u00a0\u2018it\u2019s for the people of Asia to run the affairs of Asia, solve the problems of Asia and uphold the security of Asia\u2019. Unfortunately for the rest of Asia, Beijing\u2019s actions mean those words are being interpreted to mean, \u2018it\u2019s for China to run the affairs of Asia\u2019.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s assertiveness is bad news for the multilateral Asian order constructed using ASEAN building blocks\u2014the East Asia Summit, the ASEAN Regional Forum and the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting.<\/p>\n

The ASEAN Regional Forum<\/a>, for instance, founded in 1994, now confronts the reality that two decades of confidence-building have produced precious little confidence. Remember that the ARF was always supposed to be a three-stage process:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Confidence building<\/li>\n
  2. Preventive diplomacy<\/li>\n
  3. Conflict-resolution mechanisms.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Forget about stages two and three. Stage one is crumbling.<\/p>\n

    The commentaries, official and unofficial, are in sad agreement. The motif of 2014 for Asia is \u2018mistrust\u2019, according to a geopolitical overview<\/a> by Singapore\u2019s Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. The National Security Strategy<\/a> issued by Japan in December lamented that the regional security framework hadn\u2019t been institutionalised, and charged China with trying to \u2018change the status quo by coercion in the maritime and aerial domains including the East China Sea and the South China Sea, [in ways] which are incompatible with the existing order of international law\u2019. It\u2019s the frame Shinzo Abe employed for his \u2018we\u2019re back<\/a>\u2019 speech on Japan again taking a security role in Asia.<\/p>\n

    The 2014 Regional Security Outlook<\/a> published by the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific,\u00a0judges that after 25 years of effort, East Asia\u2019s fight for a security community has to be rated, at best, as a draw. \u2018In short,\u2019 Ron Huisken writes, \u2018we are not winning\u2019. He describes the US and China slipping towards \u2018mutually accepted adversity and antagonism\u2019, as China finds it \u2018hard to sustain its preferred image of a new model major power devoid of hegemonic aspirations and committed to stability and reassurance\u2019.<\/p>\n

    The Regional Security Assessment<\/a> released at the Shangri-La dialogue by the International Institute for Strategic Studies commented that the prospects for an institutionally based Asian security order \u2018may be fading\u2019 and \u2018look much bleaker\u2019 than they did five years ago. The evidence points to competition, not cooperation:<\/p>\n

    …much uncertainty hangs over the continued sustainability of the US-led order … it appears clear that rising China\u2014although demanding greater regional influence commensurate with its growing power\u2014is still neither willing to assume the leadership responsibilities traditionally expected of a hegemonic power nor able to replace the US as the region\u2019s dominant power.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    After more than two decades, Asia\u2019s effort at security machinery or architecture\u2014built by the middle powers but, until now, supported by the great powers\u2014is confronting its limitations. If the first stage of this community is building confidence, then the stage is buckling; diplomatic socialisation, ASEAN norms and constant dialogue aren\u2019t delivering.<\/p>\n

    The weak security system built by Asia has paid great homage to China’s prerogatives and granted Beijing an effective veto over progress and direction. The nascent system has been one of China\u2019s many assets in its rise to the head of the region. Now that system is being damaged as China flexes its muscles over territory and national pride. Beijing seems little worried by brushing aside Asia\u2019s multilateral security community.<\/p>\n

    Graeme Dobell is the ASPI journalist fellow. Image courtesy of InfoFoto<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    China has gone from peaceful rise to rising by pieces, as it smashes the nascent regional security order. Not much peace in prospect as China forcefully asserts its ownership over pieces of the East China …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":14352,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[189,52,641,168,142,471],"class_list":["post-14349","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-asean","tag-china","tag-east-china-sea","tag-norms","tag-regional-security","tag-south-china-sea"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChina\u2019s peaceful rise into pieces | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-peaceful-rise-into-pieces\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China\u2019s peaceful rise into pieces | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"China has gone from peaceful rise to rising by pieces, as it smashes the nascent regional security order. 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