{"id":14378,"date":"2014-06-16T06:00:41","date_gmt":"2014-06-15T20:00:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=14378"},"modified":"2014-06-17T09:16:43","modified_gmt":"2014-06-16T23:16:43","slug":"what-is-chinas-strategy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-is-chinas-strategy\/","title":{"rendered":"What is China\u2019s strategy?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"President<\/a>A simple question about what China has been doing to its neighbours keeps recurring: How is that smart?<\/p>\n

The question came up in dozens of conversations at the Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore and the Asia-Pacific roundtable in Kuala Lumpur. The puzzle of China\u2019s behaviour has shaped the previous columns on Shinzo Abe\u2019s \u2018we\u2019re back in Asia security\u2019 speech<\/a>, the differing security doctrines<\/a> coming from China and the United States, the Australian Defence Minister\u2019s musings<\/a> on Asia\u2019s potentially catastrophic situation, the loss\u00a0of regional confidence<\/a>, and the impact of all this<\/a> on the nascent Asian security system that has served China so well.<\/p>\n

Consider the responses China has produced or helped validate:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Japan\u2019s asserting its right to a bigger security role in Asia in ways not heard in 70 years\u2014and this is being warmly welcomed by Australia and Southeast Asia. In a few weeks, Shinzo Abe will come to address the Australian Parliament just as President Obama did in November 2011. That was Obama\u2019s pivot speech<\/a>, announcing that as president he\u2019d \u2018made a deliberate and strategic decision\u2014as a Pacific nation, the United States will play a larger and long-term role in shaping this region and its future, by upholding core principles and in close partnership with allies and friends\u2019. Abe will use the same stage\u2014Australia\u2019s House of Representatives\u2014to offer his own version of that strategic decision.<\/li>\n
  2. The US President went to Japan in April and stated that the Senkaku Islands are covered by the US security treaty with Japan. China has pushed so hard over some barren islands occupied by goats that it has produced a specific promise from Obama that the US is ready to go to war with China to ensure that the goats remain Japanese.<\/li>\n
  3. Traditional fence-sitters such as Malaysia and Vietnam are doing exactly what theory says they must do\u2014balance against China by nestling closer to the US. America now proclaims \u00a0\u2018comprehensive partnerships\u2019<\/a> with Hanoi and Kuala Lumpur. Vietnam\u2019s Defence Minister is happily ruminating about the American Navy coming back to use Cam Ranh Bay.<\/li>\n
  4. The rusty US alliance with the Philippines has a fresh coat of paint and Manila is desperate to add muscle to the rebalance. \u200b<\/li>\n
  5. For Asia, the US rebalance is central and vital. No explanation is needed for why it matters and why it must be made to work. The only question is about the level of US commitment. Some mordant comfort is taken from the fact that all US military planning now assumes China as the default enemy. Asia is rushing to give new love to the US hub-and-spokes alliance system, with some supporting partnerships added.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    How is it in any way smart for China to have done anything to produce such outcomes? As observed by a bearded Canadian strategist who has been cruising Asia for decades: ‘The principal\u00a0architect of the success of the US rebalance is Beijing.\u2019<\/p>\n

    When you talk to Chinese officials, officers and strategists, the standard line is that China is the victim. China isn\u2019t the actor, it\u2019s being acted on. China\u2019s only responding to the provocation of others. China\u2019s being pushed around and has to push back. It\u2019s a strange rendering of the way things look to the number two economy in the world and Asia\u2019s pre-eminent power. China\u2019s reaching for its prerogatives as a great power and feeding the fires of its own nationalism while adopting the tone of a put-upon teenager.<\/p>\n

    One of the best descriptions of this dynamic was given by Rodolfo Severino, the former Philippines diplomat and secretary-general of ASEAN. Now head of the ASEAN Studies Centre at Singapore\u2019s Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Severino told me:<\/p>\n

    Although secretly the US is welcome here, publicly one cannot say that because that would be unfashionable. That\u2019s where I think the Chinese are making a mistake. They think that the Philippines and Vietnam are under the thumb of the Americans and it\u2019s not so. By doing what they are doing they are giving the US another reason to be around. So I think it\u2019s a mistake, but one cannot assume that the Chinese have access to the best minds. Although they are very smart but sometimes they don\u2019t think things through.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    Graeme Dobell is the ASPI journalist fellow. Image courtesy of the White House<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    A simple question about what China has been doing to its neighbours keeps recurring: How is that smart? The question came up in dozens of conversations at the Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore and the Asia-Pacific …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":14382,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[189,17,176,52,135,102,370,378,142,358,50,25,31,540],"class_list":["post-14378","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-asean","tag-australia","tag-barack-obama","tag-china","tag-japan","tag-malaysia","tag-philippines","tag-rebalance","tag-regional-security","tag-shangri-la-dialogue","tag-singapore","tag-southeast-asia","tag-united-states","tag-vietnam"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat is China\u2019s strategy? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-is-chinas-strategy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What is China\u2019s strategy? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A simple question about what China has been doing to its neighbours keeps recurring: How is that smart? The question came up in dozens of conversations at the Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore and the Asia-Pacific ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-is-chinas-strategy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-06-15T20:00:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2014-06-16T23:16:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/Obama-Philippines.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"654\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"436\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Graeme Dobell\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Graeme Dobell\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-is-chinas-strategy\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/Obama-Philippines.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/Obama-Philippines.jpg\",\"width\":654,\"height\":436,\"caption\":\"President Barack Obama and President Benigno S. Aquino III inspect the honor guard during an arrival ceremony at the Malaca\u00f1ang Palace in Manila, Philippines, 28 April 2014. One of the responses China has produced or helped validate with its actions is to strengthen the US-Philippines alliance.\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-is-chinas-strategy\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-is-chinas-strategy\/\",\"name\":\"What is China\u2019s strategy? | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-is-chinas-strategy\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2014-06-15T20:00:41+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2014-06-16T23:16:43+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/ed3342cd61abc65c1532f3cc46bdf96f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-is-chinas-strategy\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-is-chinas-strategy\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-is-chinas-strategy\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"What is China\u2019s strategy?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/ed3342cd61abc65c1532f3cc46bdf96f\",\"name\":\"Graeme Dobell\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dff56734d4df784248f63058b7b6900a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dff56734d4df784248f63058b7b6900a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Graeme Dobell\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/graeme-dobell\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"What is China\u2019s strategy? | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-is-chinas-strategy\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"What is China\u2019s strategy? | The Strategist","og_description":"A simple question about what China has been doing to its neighbours keeps recurring: How is that smart? The question came up in dozens of conversations at the Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore and the Asia-Pacific ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-is-chinas-strategy\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2014-06-15T20:00:41+00:00","article_modified_time":"2014-06-16T23:16:43+00:00","og_image":[{"width":654,"height":436,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/Obama-Philippines.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Graeme Dobell","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Graeme Dobell","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-is-chinas-strategy\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/Obama-Philippines.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/Obama-Philippines.jpg","width":654,"height":436,"caption":"President Barack Obama and President Benigno S. Aquino III inspect the honor guard during an arrival ceremony at the Malaca\u00f1ang Palace in Manila, Philippines, 28 April 2014. One of the responses China has produced or helped validate with its actions is to strengthen the US-Philippines alliance."},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-is-chinas-strategy\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-is-chinas-strategy\/","name":"What is China\u2019s strategy? | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-is-chinas-strategy\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2014-06-15T20:00:41+00:00","dateModified":"2014-06-16T23:16:43+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/ed3342cd61abc65c1532f3cc46bdf96f"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-is-chinas-strategy\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-is-chinas-strategy\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-is-chinas-strategy\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"What is China\u2019s strategy?"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/ed3342cd61abc65c1532f3cc46bdf96f","name":"Graeme Dobell","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dff56734d4df784248f63058b7b6900a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dff56734d4df784248f63058b7b6900a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Graeme Dobell"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/graeme-dobell\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14378"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/79"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14378"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14378\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14401,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14378\/revisions\/14401"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14382"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14378"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14378"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14378"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}