{"id":14760,"date":"2014-07-16T06:00:33","date_gmt":"2014-07-15T20:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=14760"},"modified":"2014-07-17T12:24:45","modified_gmt":"2014-07-17T02:24:45","slug":"wrong-turn-on-the-white-road","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wrong-turn-on-the-white-road\/","title":{"rendered":"Wrong turn on the White road"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Wrong<\/a><\/p>\n

A journey even more remarkable than the Chinese Ming Dynasty fleets\u2019 discovery of Australia in the 1420s (at least according to Hu Jintao<\/a>\u00a0in 2003) is Hugh White\u2019s journey of discovery on the China Choice road. Readers will be familiar with the bleak landscape of this voyage: confronted with a growing China determined to dominate its region, Australia must choose between its biggest market or its American ally. The choice is either to give China breathing space to manifest its destiny or ultimately go to war to stifle Beijing\u2019s ambition. The prospect of war is so terrible that Australia\u2019s only sensible option is not to cooperate with Japan or, most likely, any other partner in the region, because to engage with others is to encroach on Chinese breathing space. And that will take us to war.<\/p>\n

The latest staging post on the China Choice road, is an article<\/a> in the Fairfax broadsheets lamenting Tony Abbott\u2019s commitment to closer defence and economic cooperation with Japan. This is a bad thing, Hugh argues, because Japan\u2019s interest is to gather around it countries that will fight alongside it against China. In the White world of international security, where countries behave like the planets set on their immutable orbits, there\u2019s no other outcome than that China and Japan will go to war over rocks in the sea while the US, Australia and any other country silly enough to limit China\u2019s breathing space will be drawn into the conflict. So obvious is this desolate outcome, Hugh concludes, that either Tony Abbott just doesn\u2019t understand the celestial movements of countries in White\u2019s world, or:<\/p>\n

A second possibility is that Mr Abbott is just pretending not to understand. He does understand what is going on in Asia, and has decided that, as regional strategic rivalries escalate, Australia\u2019s best move is to spur them on\u2014not just by strengthening our alliance with America, but by becoming Japan\u2019s ally against China.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

That\u2019s such a remarkable quote you really should read it twice. There you have it, dear reader, an Australian conspiracy to take the world to war, to spur on China\u2019s rivalry with flagrant, provocative, breathing-space-encroaching behaviour of strengthening our 70-year-old alliance with the US and cooperating, as we have since the 1950s, with Japan.<\/p>\n

There are many twists and turns on the White road. For example, Hugh says that \u2018Japan has a perfect right to do what is needed to protect its own security\u2019\u2014just not, it seems over the Senkakus or by cooperating with friends. That raises an obvious question: is the Asia-Pacific more stable by having a Japan closely allied to the US and with a network of friends, or with a Japan that\u2019s isolated? History gives a precedent to consider.<\/p>\n

To disprove the massive Australian conspiracy theory spurring the region to war, I offer the following modest insights. First, China\u2013Australia relations remain good. Beijing isn\u2019t asking us to choose. Australia continues to put a top priority on building closer relations with China. When Shinzo Abe was in Canberra, John Howard was in Beijing, meeting Xi Jinping. Xi pointed to the \u2018extensive common interests\u2019 between the two countries and looked to a future of close cooperation and a speedy conclusion to free trade negotiations. As I predicted<\/a> in the Financial Review<\/i>, there were a few negative comments in the Chinese media about Abe\u2019s visit. But reading those as though they reflect Chinese government thinking makes no more sense than imagining Age<\/i> editorials channel Tony Abbott\u2019s opinions.<\/p>\n

Second, no two countries are more invested in each other\u2019s success than China and Japan. Like Australia, China is by far Japan\u2019s largest market for imports and exports and Japanese investment in China is valued at over US$58 billion<\/a>. A conflict between the two countries would sink them both. That\u2019s not to say nationalism and miscalculation couldn\u2019t trump economic self-interest, but it\u2019s wrong to imply the current momentum is all in the direction of conflict. China\u2019s primary interest is still to sustain growth. Peaceful relations with Japan are a key component of that strategy.<\/p>\n

Third, with the exception of some Australian media outlets, Malcolm Fraser and the ANU redoubt, nowhere in the civilised world is the China Choice logic gaining traction. Countries in the Asia-Pacific stickily persist in cooperating with each other; in wanting the US to remain engaged; in building defence capabilities and otherwise refusing to sacrifice their own interests to give China more breathing space. At the same time the region vigorously trades with China even as they worry about Beijing\u2019s intentions. The Asia-Pacific isn\u2019t a blank canvass for China to redraw the map. Every country is looking for breathing space and most are forming the view that closer cooperation with friends and allies builds a stronger foundation for stability. That\u2019s why Australia and Japan are cooperating more closely, and why both countries want closer relations with China.<\/p>\n

In the Asia-Pacific the White Road is the road not taken, and just as well if the choice we face upon it is subordination or incineration. The smart thing to do is to follow a different path. U-turn, anyone?<\/p>\n

Peter Jennings is executive director of ASPI. Image courtesy of Flickr user Koppenbadger<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A journey even more remarkable than the Chinese Ming Dynasty fleets\u2019 discovery of Australia in the 1420s (at least according to Hu Jintao\u00a0in 2003) is Hugh White\u2019s journey of discovery on the China Choice road. …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":14761,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[17,52,1426,135,31],"class_list":["post-14760","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australia","tag-china","tag-hugh-white","tag-japan","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWrong turn on the White road | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wrong-turn-on-the-white-road\/\" \/>\n<meta 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