{"id":14798,"date":"2014-07-17T14:30:57","date_gmt":"2014-07-17T04:30:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=14798"},"modified":"2014-07-18T09:16:22","modified_gmt":"2014-07-17T23:16:22","slug":"a-generational-shift-in-the-north-korean-nuclear-program","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/a-generational-shift-in-the-north-korean-nuclear-program\/","title":{"rendered":"A generational shift in the North Korean nuclear program?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n

The death last week of General Jon Pyong-ho<\/a>, aged 88, chief architect of the North Korean nuclear program, raises the tantalising question, \u2018where to from here?\u2019. We\u2019ve become accustomed to a North Korean nuclear program that limps rather than runs. Two factors have constrained the program: a shortage of fissile material and a lack of nuclear testing. Deals cut in the 1990s and at the Six Party Talks (SPT) have also slowed proceedings; twice now the small 5MWe gas graphite reactor (the source of all the North\u2019s current stockpile of plutonium) has been mothballed\u2014and subsequently de-mothballed. But with that reactor being restarted last October, and a new 25MWe light water reactor (LWR) coming on-stream, are we about to see a generational shift to a new, more energetic North Korean nuclear program?<\/p>\n

The short answer is \u2018no\u2019. The longer answer is more complicated. Broadly, fissile material shortages seem likely to hamper the program for some time yet. Estimates vary as to the size of the current North Korean plutonium stockpile. The US Congressional Research Service figure<\/a> of between 30 and 50kg (enough for five to eight bombs) seems reasonable, but that figure could be lower if the third nuclear test involved a plutonium device rather than a uranium one (something we don\u2019t know). If the 5MWe reactor is now running smoothly again, Pyongyang can use it to produce about one-bomb\u2019s-worth (6kg) of plutonium per year. But the process is slow, beginning with construction of suitable fuel rods for the reactor, irradiation of the fuel in the reactor, removal and cooling of the fuel, and reprocessing to extract the plutonium.<\/p>\n

Size matters. Pyongyang\u2019s problem is that the facility is just too small to allow greater production. Had it completed construction of either its 50-MWe reactor or a 200-MWe reactor, both of which it began building some years back but subsequently abandoned, the equations would look much more unsettling. The 50-MWe reactor would have created enough plutonium for ten bombs per year; the 200-MWe reactor enough for 40 bombs per year.<\/p>\n

True, Pyongyang might choose to pursue simultaneously a second path to fissile materials\u2014as the US did during the Manhattan Project. If it used its uranium-enrichment facility solely to produce highly-enriched uranium (HEU), it could produce about 40kg per year<\/a>. The IAEA defines 25kg of HEU as a \u2018significant\u2019 quantity<\/a>, so let\u2019s say that 40kg equals a capability to make one and a half bombs. But the enrichment facility must spend some time creating low-enriched uranium-oxide fuel pellets for the new LWR. And each new nuclear test will subtract one bomb\u2019s worth of material from the stockpile.<\/p>\n

Won\u2019t the LWR provide an alternate source of plutonium for Pyongyang when it begins operations? Yes. Depending on how it chooses to run the reactor and how often it wants to\u2014or can\u2014refuel it, Pyongyang could use it to produce plutonium. Estimates vary about how much. Charles Ferguson, from the Federation of American Scientists, has recently argued that Pyongyang could extract 30\u201340 kg of plutonium each year<\/a> (enough for five to seven bombs) from just that facility. That seems a high figure; others suggest lower ranges<\/a>. Siegfried Hecker suggests a plutonium figure of 10\u201315kg<\/a> per year might be more realistic.<\/p>\n

The LWR isn\u2019t an ideal producer of weapons-grade plutonium for Pyongyang. The fuel is in the form of ceramic pellets, each fuel-load requires low-level uranium enrichment (unlike the Magnox fuel being fed into the small reactor) and the plutonium reprocessing facility has previously been set up to reprocess metallic fuel, not ceramic. Some analysts\u2014Hecker for example<\/a>\u2014argue that the LWR\u2019s inherent proliferation-resistance means the North will probably use the LWR for electricity production rather than plutonium production. Further, the fact the North\u2019s restarted its small reactor suggests it wants to retain its present plutonium path.<\/p>\n

Still, the possibility for misuse of the LWR\u2014while low\u2014is sufficiently concerning that getting a handle on the program is becoming more important. Recent developments have certainly not been lost on the South Koreans, who have stated that a freezing<\/a> of the North Korean program at its current level should be a precondition for any resumption of the SPT. Hecker used to champion a proposal called \u2018the three nos<\/a>\u2019: no more bombs, no better bombs, and no export. If Pyongyang keeps going in its current direction, the first two nos seem unlikely to be satisfied.<\/p>\n

What can Australia do? Unfortunately, not much. We don\u2019t control the supply of uranium to North Korea, we can\u2019t influence how Pyongyang uses its nuclear infrastructure, and we can\u2019t shape its decisions about missile and nuclear weapon testing. Our intelligence community might be able to lead an effort to clarify stockpile numbers, which would be valuable but not game-changing.<\/p>\n

Despite the concerns of the international community, Pyongyang in recent years has constructed a new reactor and enrichment facility, tested longer-range missiles and nuclear devices, and declared that it\u2019s a nuclear-armed state. It isn\u2019t about to turn over a new leaf. But its nuclear program still lives on Struggle Street\u2014and will for some years yet. That certainly doesn\u2019t make it irrelevant; further testing, for example, could help North Korea miniaturise its weapons. Still, it buys us a little time\u2014if we can find a way to use it.<\/p>\n

Rod Lyon is a fellow at ASPI and executive editor of\u00a0<\/em><\/em>The Strategist.\u00a0Image courtesy of yeowatzup<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The death last week of General Jon Pyong-ho, aged 88, chief architect of the North Korean nuclear program, raises the tantalising question, \u2018where to from here?\u2019. We\u2019ve become accustomed to a North Korean nuclear program …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":14799,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[86,356],"class_list":["post-14798","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-north-korea","tag-nuclear-weapons"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nA generational shift in the North Korean nuclear program? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/a-generational-shift-in-the-north-korean-nuclear-program\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A generational shift in the North Korean nuclear program? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The death last week of General Jon Pyong-ho, aged 88, chief architect of the North Korean nuclear program, raises the tantalising question, \u2018where to from here?\u2019. 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