{"id":15727,"date":"2014-09-15T12:30:12","date_gmt":"2014-09-15T02:30:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=15727"},"modified":"2014-09-16T08:02:20","modified_gmt":"2014-09-15T22:02:20","slug":"poland-asking-for-too-much","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/poland-asking-for-too-much\/","title":{"rendered":"Poland: asking for too much?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"NATO<\/a>The NATO summit in Newport, Wales has come and gone. It surely ranks as one of NATO\u2019s better efforts, reviving the core principle of European defence and committing alliance members to expanded defence spending. But for eastern European members of the alliance, there\u2019s an uneasiness about their strategic future. Some in Poland and the Baltic states will see NATO\u2019s expanded ready-reaction force as too little, too late. Perhaps aware that the summit would not be giving those alliance members all they wanted, President Obama stopped by the Estonian capital on his way to Wales. Still, concerns that Russia aims to create a \u2018grey zone\u2019 between its national border and western Europe haven\u2019t been assuaged.<\/p>\n

Poland, the largest of the former communist nations in the NATO alliance, has spent months pushing for greater NATO efforts in the east. In April, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski argued for 10 000 NATO troops<\/a> to be permanently stationed near Poland\u2019s eastern border to deter Russian aggression. After Wales, Poland can look forward to an increased rotation of NATO and US troops through NATO headquarters in Szczecin<\/a>, in north-west Poland, but not the permanent stationing it sought.<\/p>\n

NATO member states, though, were always divided over Poland\u2019s request\u2014condemned too by Russia\u2014saying that such a deployment would violate the \u2018Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation\u2019 of 1997. With Germany worried about provoking Russia<\/a>, such action so close to the Russian and Ukrainian borders may be seen by Moscow as a breach of NATO\u2019s pledge not to station troops, nor deploy nuclear weapons in new member states (Poland joined NATO in 1999). The Poles, in turn, argue that Russia violated that agreement by entering the Ukraine.<\/p>\n

In 1997, then Deputy Defence Minister Andrezj Karkoszka<\/a> remarked in relation to a conference between Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin on NATO expansion that \u2018the smell of Yalta is always with us\u2019\u2014a reference to the 1945 conference that essentially created the Iron Curtain, leaving Poland feeling betrayed by the West. The present sentiment is more uneasiness than betrayal, but turns upon a feeling that NATO delivers unequal protection to its members. That uneasiness is especially acute during a time when Poland feels vulnerable. \u2018It is very important that all members should enjoy the same level of security\u2019, said Mr Sikorski.<\/a> \u2018Poland has been a member of NATO for 15 years now\u2014and so far the only permanent military institution that we have is a conference centre, training facility. We would welcome a prominent, major presence.\u2019 Asked about his aspirations before the Welsh summit, he said<\/a>: \u2018We are hoping that the NATO summit\u2026will take important decisions to persuade us that Article Five of the Washington Treaty stands not only legally, but in terms of capability to enforce it in practice, which is what it’s all about.\u2019 Prime Minister Donald Tusk<\/a> also expressed frustration over NATO\u2019s hesitancy: \u2018We are gaining something step by step, but the pace of NATO increasing its military presence [in Poland] could be faster\u2019.<\/p>\n

Added to that, leaked tapes of a conversation between Sikorski and Jacek Rostowski<\/a>, a Polish politician and former Minister of Finance, have the Foreign Minister speaking much more forthrightly: \u2018You know that the Polish-US alliance isn’t worth anything\u2026It is downright harmful, because it creates a false sense of security…Complete bullshit. We’ll get in conflict with the Germans, Russians and we’ll think that everything is super\u2026Losers. Complete losers.\u2019<\/p>\n

Poland\u2019s requests fell on sympathetic, but critical, ears in Newport. NATO and the US pledged to increase military exercises and continuous rotation of troops, as well as the \u2018rapid response plan\u2019 that can be deployed \u2018on very short notice\u2019<\/a> if a Baltic state were to come under attack. In response,\u00a0President Komorowski, Sikorski and Polish Defence Minister Siemoniak<\/a> weren\u2019t entirely satisfied, but put on brave faces in public. In a recent opinion poll, 59% of Polish respondents<\/a> reported feeling that Russia is a threat to their security. And Poland doesn\u2019t have a wide range of possible security guarantors.<\/p>\n

Some NATO members probably believe the Poles are exaggerating the threat. Russia, after all, has not indicated any intention to go after Poland. The country doesn\u2019t have a large Russian-speaking population for Moscow to \u2018protect\u2019 and there\u2019s little to tempt Russia to attack a NATO member with, in theory, guaranteed assistance from the West. If anything, a downturn in the economic relationship with Russia and a long, cold winter might currently be Poland\u2019s largest security threat.<\/p>\n

Penelope Czyzewska is currently completing a degree in national security, and is undertaking work experience at ASPI through the University of Canberra. Image courtesy of NATO<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The NATO summit in Newport, Wales has come and gone. It surely ranks as one of NATO\u2019s better efforts, reviving the core principle of European defence and committing alliance members to expanded defence spending. 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