{"id":15818,"date":"2014-09-15T14:30:48","date_gmt":"2014-09-15T04:30:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=15818"},"modified":"2014-09-16T08:02:10","modified_gmt":"2014-09-15T22:02:10","slug":"obamas-sloth-and-pause-campaign","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/obamas-sloth-and-pause-campaign\/","title":{"rendered":"Obama\u2019s \u2018Sloth and Pause\u2019 campaign"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"President<\/a><\/figure>\n

President Obama\u2019s \u2018targeted, relentless counterterrorism campaign against ISIL\u2019<\/a>\u00a0looks more like \u2018sloth and pause\u2019 compared to the 2003 \u2018shock and awe\u2019 attack on Iraq. Since the President\u2019s 10 September statement<\/a>, four air strikes (as of time of publication) have destroyed three ISIL \u2018armed vehicles\u2019 and a mortar emplacement (here<\/a> and here<\/a>). That\u2019s bad news for the occupants of a few HiLuxes but hardly a decisive blow against ISIL.<\/p>\n

In a hapless media briefing last Friday the Pentagon\u2019s Press Secretary, Rear Admiral John Kirby, said<\/a> degrading and destroying ISIL could not be done militarily. ISIL\u2019s ideology is the thing that needs to be destroyed, he said, \u2018that’s not going to be defeated through military means alone. It’s going to take time and it’s going to take good governance, responsive politics, both in Iraq and in Syria.\u2019 Meantime, Kirby admitted that a deployment of 125 US personnel to Erbil\u2014part of the 475 extra US forces pledged by Obama\u2014had been delayed: \u2018We are still working through some of the sourcing solutions with that 125 personnel presence that will go to Erbil.\u2019<\/p>\n

Sourcing solutions? Seriously? The wheels have fallen off America\u2019s \u2018relentless\u2019 campaign before it even starts. It\u2019s positive that Obama finally decided to build an international coalition, and sooner or later air strikes will be launched against the ISIL leadership. But there\u2019s no clear strategy yet, no thinking about the right way to sequence military and political elements and far too much willingness to curb a sensible strategic response to the demands of American politics.<\/p>\n

For a campaign against ISIL to work the Obama administration needs to clarify its thinking. Failure to do so risks swinging between disinterest and unfocused engagement. Obama famously dictated his military strategy for Afghanistan in late 2009 after becoming frustrated with advice from officials. His \u2018term sheet\u2019 memo<\/a> set the boundaries for American involvement in Afghanistan for the next half decade. An anti-ISIL \u2018term sheet\u2019 should contain five key points:<\/p>\n

1) The focus is destroying ISIL, not rebuilding Iraq and Syria.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The combination of ISIL\u2019s unyielding ideology and propaganda skills makes the group a direct threat to US and broader Western interests. The risk of ISIL exporting terror attacks to the West and consolidating its hold in Iraq and Syria requires an immediate response, regardless of how inclusive the government is in Baghdad. Only after ISIL has been reduced to a fragmentary force does it make sense to worry about Middle Eastern governance.<\/p>\n

2) Air strikes must happen soon.<\/strong><\/p>\n

To make any military sense the US must begin air strikes soon. ISIL will be copying Hamas and surrounding its leaders with civilians to complicate targeting while preparing propaganda for release after air strikes that will play to regional sympathies. The longer the US waits to strike the less effective the campaign will be.<\/p>\n

3) Accept the need for some ground forces.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Around 1600 US military personnel will be in Iraq after the announced 475 troops deploy. In all likelihood there will be a need for a few thousand additional personnel, which Washington will have to send if they want to consolidate the gains from air strikes. Rhetoric about \u2018no boots on the ground\u2019 just disguises what needs to be done to give effect to Obama\u2019s announced strategy.<\/p>\n

4) Assad is not our friend.<\/strong><\/p>\n

President Obama is right not to throw his lot in with Syria\u2019s loathsome Bashar al-Assad, whose human-rights violations make ISIL look like amateurs. But Obama\u2019s strategy is hostage to receiving Congressional approval to fund so-called moderate opposition forces and the Pentagon (in Admiral Kirby\u2019s brief) has hinted that it would take a year or more to train a capable Syrian militia. In the meantime air strikes against ISIL in Syria will be essential to avoid creating a safe-haven for terrorists who slip across the border.<\/p>\n

5) Don\u2019t over invest in coalition building.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The British are mainly worried about their own separatist insurgency in Scotland and won\u2019t commit to air strikes until after the independence referendum on 18 September. The French are positive but will want help in return in North Africa. The Australians are enthusiastic but won\u2019t move until the US does. The Turks won\u2019t do anything to enhance Kurdish authority. The Saudis and Gulf States are conflicted. The Iranians have a tactical interest in backing Baghdad but primarily with the intent of keeping it dependent on Tehran. An international coalition, in other words, gives Washington the right look, but it isn\u2019t worth slowing down US action to build such a high-maintenance group.<\/p>\n

Peter Jennings<\/em><\/a> is executive director of ASPI. Image courtesy of The White House<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

President Obama\u2019s \u2018targeted, relentless counterterrorism campaign against ISIL\u2019\u00a0looks more like \u2018sloth and pause\u2019 compared to the 2003 \u2018shock and awe\u2019 attack on Iraq. Since the President\u2019s 10 September statement, four air strikes (as of time …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":15819,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[176,191,895,183,274],"class_list":["post-15818","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-barack-obama","tag-iraq","tag-islamic-state","tag-military-intervention","tag-syria"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nObama\u2019s \u2018Sloth and Pause\u2019 campaign | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/obamas-sloth-and-pause-campaign\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Obama\u2019s \u2018Sloth and Pause\u2019 campaign | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"President Obama\u2019s \u2018targeted, relentless counterterrorism campaign against ISIL\u2019\u00a0looks more like \u2018sloth and pause\u2019 compared to the 2003 \u2018shock and awe\u2019 attack on Iraq. 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