{"id":16139,"date":"2014-10-02T12:15:34","date_gmt":"2014-10-02T02:15:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=16139"},"modified":"2014-10-03T09:57:36","modified_gmt":"2014-10-02T23:57:36","slug":"governments-and-balance-sheets-submarines-and-industry-in-australia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/governments-and-balance-sheets-submarines-and-industry-in-australia\/","title":{"rendered":"Governments and balance sheets\u2014submarines and industry in Australia"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Comparing<\/a><\/figure>\n

It now seems a real possibility that the replacement for the Collins<\/em>-class submarines might come from Japan, rather than being built in Australia as previously promised by the government. The principal argument for that proposal is the supposed cost for the capability acquired\u2014with a figure of $25 billion being considered better value for money than the somewhat woolly $50\u201380 billion for the local alternative. In the Australian Financial Review<\/em> on 8 September (\u2018Japanese subs on the way<\/a>\u2019), Prime Minister Abbott is quoted as saying that \u2018The most important thing is to get the best and most capable submarines at a reasonable price for the Australian taxpayer\u2019.<\/p>\n

While a simple comparison of potential costs is sobering (and obviously intended to be so) the arguments presented to date have been somewhat simplistic and don\u2019t take into account the full range of factors upon which such a decision should be based. They also show a spectacularly na\u00efve view on what comprises capability.<\/p>\n

In his article \u2018Option J for FSM\u2014a Japanese solution?<\/a>\u2019 Peter Briggs undertakes a comparison of the Japanese Soryu<\/em>-class with the Collins<\/em>-class submarine and finds that on an operational basis the Soryu<\/em> doesn\u2019t stack up as well as claimed.<\/p>\n

What we don\u2019t know is what\u2019s included in the figure of $25 billion. Is it the acquisition cost only? Does it include any through-life support; and if so to what level, where? Does it include modifications to existing facilities that will be required for maintenance done in Australia, and for re-training Australia\u2019s submariners? Does it include facilities costs in Japan to cater for a submarine that won\u2019t be the Soryu<\/em>-class\u2014even though it might look like one from the outside? Does it include full access to the Soryu<\/em>-class design and all associated intellectual property? What level of technology transfer will be provided? If it does not include all IP, what will be included and how are the risks of handling a new design to be mitigated? All of those issues have the potential vastly to inflate the stated $25 billion cost, create schedule delays, and add to the overall sovereign risk.<\/p>\n

A similar series of questions might be aimed at the local option\u2014although it could be reasonably assumed that the \u2018$50 to $80 billion\u2019 cost includes every cost that could conceivably be associated with a locally-built submarine. Until we get a true comparison we can\u2019t make a sensible judgment.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s also clear is that the \u2018Australian-Soryu<\/em>\u2019 will have a different combat system, different sonar and different weapons to the off-the-shelf version operated by the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force. Will it also have a different propulsion system and battery to overcome the range and indiscretion-rate limitations of the Soryu<\/em>? The result will be an \u2018evolved-Soryu<\/em>\u2019, developed in Japan with Japanese designers and workers, rather than an \u2018evolved-Collins<\/em>\u2019 developed in Australia with Australian designers and Australian workers. All the design effort to date on the evolved-Collins<\/em> and the new submarine design options will be wasted. We\u2019ll have to\u2014or have to pay the Japanese to\u2014start again on the evolved-Soryu<\/em> option. We\u2019re also likely to have to pay to have the Japanese shipyards to incorporate that new design into their build program. That doesn\u2019t seem a sensible way in which to approach the much-discussed submarine capability gap.<\/p>\n

We seem to be heading into a strategically important decision on the basis of a short-term \u2018sugar kick\u2019 to the balance sheet, rather than sound strategic considerations. What\u2019s required at this point is some transparency from the government\u2014with regard to the detail of the potential purchase from Japan, and with respect to the assessment and application of strategic and sovereign risks. The pending decision is too important to be made on a whim.<\/p>\n

Graeme Dunk is manager of Australian Business Defence Industry, a national defence industry association. Image courtesy of Flickr user mcgovernville<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It now seems a real possibility that the replacement for the Collins-class submarines might come from Japan, rather than being built in Australia as previously promised by the government. The principal argument for that proposal …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":239,"featured_media":16140,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[17,135,304,976,223],"class_list":["post-16139","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australia","tag-japan","tag-royal-australian-navy","tag-soryu-class","tag-submarines"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nGovernments and balance sheets\u2014submarines and industry in Australia | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/governments-and-balance-sheets-submarines-and-industry-in-australia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Governments and balance sheets\u2014submarines and industry in Australia | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It now seems a real possibility that the replacement for the Collins-class submarines might come from Japan, rather than being built in Australia as previously promised by the government. 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