{"id":16346,"date":"2014-10-15T06:00:49","date_gmt":"2014-10-14T19:00:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=16346"},"modified":"2014-10-16T09:10:54","modified_gmt":"2014-10-15T22:10:54","slug":"north-korea-kim-jong-un-authority-and-a-debilitated-king","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-kim-jong-un-authority-and-a-debilitated-king\/","title":{"rendered":"North Korea: Kim Jong Un, authority, and a debilitated king"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Kim<\/a>Kim\u2019s back on deck, albeit walking with a cane<\/a>. His reappearance<\/a> yesterday brought to an end a 40-day absence from public view, during which speculation ran rampant about what might have caused it. In response to his reappearance, international media seem to have set aside half-wishful thoughts that he might have been overthrown and returned to a theme of all\u2019s-well-that-ends-well in Pyongyang. But it\u2019s worth unpacking the issue of the missing Kim just a little more. True, no regime change occurred. Still, the absence was so poorly handled by the North there might well be other issues in play here besides Kim Jong Un\u2019s health. Perhaps future absences beckon. In any event, Kim\u2019s health matters\u2014it\u2019s tied up with both his authority in North Korea and the broader issue of the post-Kim North Korea.<\/p>\n

During the leader\u2019s absence from public view, North Korean media suggested that Kim was undergoing a course of medical treatment and had been experiencing \u2018discomfort\u2019. Speculation about the source of that discomfort ran thick and fast, including gout, diabetes, strained tendons, and ankle injuries. But given the unusual political circumstances of North Korea\u2014Kim\u2019s a young dictator trying to lock down his succession in a country about whose inner-circle politics we know almost nothing\u2014it\u2019s not entirely surprising that other, more sinister, explanations also received an airing. It\u2019s probably true that if Kim Jong Un\u2019s going to be toppled, that\u2019ll occur while he\u2019s still settling into the job\u2014because if he makes it through the early years he\u2019ll probably be there for decades. So any unexplained absence of the leader is bound to draw attention\u2014hence the occasional bursts of black humour that Kim\u2019s discomfort might have been caused by a \u2018nine-millimetre headache\u2019.<\/p>\n

But there was always a large element of wishful thinking in believing that a regime change had unfolded in North Korea without anyone noticing. And throughout Kim\u2019s absence, as Susan Rice, the US National Security Adviser said<\/a> at the weekend, there was no actual evidence that he\u2019d been deposed: no signs of a power struggle; no tanks in the streets of Pyongyang. Even the short-notice visit of a high-powered delegation to Seoul suggested that someone was in control and making the principal decisions.<\/p>\n

But Kim\u2019s absence matters in ways that go beyond the simple possibility of regime change. So far the image Kim Jong Un\u2019s been building is of an energetic, youthful leader\u2014a decisive personality able to wait out his enemies both foreign and domestic. Tennyson said that authority forgets a dying king, so it\u2019s reasonable to conclude that it has at least some short-term memory lapses about a debilitated one. A prolonged absence\u2014or repeated absences\u2014will do more than feed international speculation about whether dark deeds have been perpetrated by Colonel Mustard in the conservatory with a\u00a0candlestick. It\u2019ll paint inside North Korea the picture of a vulnerable leader. That\u2019d be a problem for Kim\u2014and not especially helpful for the rest of us hoping to see clear North Korean decisions in relation to a resumption of talks about the North\u2019s nuclear program and a \u2018grand bargain\u2019 about the program\u2019s dismantlement.<\/p>\n

Moreover, we shouldn\u2019t overlook the bigger questions concerning the future of leadership in North Korea. Here, I would recommend readers have a look at Scott Snyder\u2019s excellent post<\/a> on the National Interest blog, The Buzz<\/em>. Kim\u2019s young: he has no heir in the traditional line of succession, and won\u2019t have one for at least a couple of decades. During his absence, media tended to focus a little more upon his sister, Kim Yo Jong. But most of her influence probably derives from her brother. In short, for many years to come Kim\u2019s going to be staring down the barrel of a succession crisis, with no obvious successor.<\/p>\n

Kim\u2019s recent absence is a potent reminder of the political difficulties that a dictatorship like North Korea confronts. And yes, we\u2019re talking here about the future leadership of a nuclear-armed country. The issue\u2019s a serious and multi-layered one: thinking about Kim\u2019s absence in the \u2018Where\u2019s Wally?\u2019<\/a> framework doesn\u2019t quite capture it.<\/p>\n

Rod Lyon<\/em><\/a>\u00a0is a fellow at ASPI and executive editor of\u00a0<\/em>The Strategist. Edited image courtesy of Flickr user AK Rockefeller<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kim\u2019s back on deck, albeit walking with a cane. His reappearance yesterday brought to an end a 40-day absence from public view, during which speculation ran rampant about what might have caused it. 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