{"id":16458,"date":"2014-10-21T12:30:37","date_gmt":"2014-10-21T01:30:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=16458"},"modified":"2014-10-22T09:27:38","modified_gmt":"2014-10-21T22:27:38","slug":"no-to-backburner-yes-to-a-two-track-strategy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/no-to-backburner-yes-to-a-two-track-strategy\/","title":{"rendered":"No to backburner, yes to a two-track strategy"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Hassan<\/a>Iran\u2019s securing nuclear weapons would destabilise a region already suffering from mass upheaval, in addition to having dire security implications for the rest of the world. Multilateral efforts to deter the sadistic actions of ISIS, a crucial priority,\u00a0seem to have distracted from international efforts to halt Iran\u2019s nuclear program. As identified in the recent post<\/a> by\u00a0Andrew Nikolic, a nuclear Iran remains a broader strategic priority and potentially worse threat.<\/p>\n

Those multilateral efforts have been further complicated by Iran\u2019s promise to fight ISIS, with President\u00a0Rouhani\u00a0indicating<\/a> to the UN General Assembly last month that Iran would co-operate on \u2018very important regional issues, such as combating violence and extremism\u2019, while\u00a0demanding concessions in the P5+1 nuclear talks. With\u00a0reports<\/a>\u00a0over the past months of Iran sending Guards in to wage a conflict already being fought by the US, \u2018both sides will have an interest in not allowing a confrontation or increased tension over the nuclear issue to interfere with the campaign against ISIS\u2019, as noted by\u00a0Gary Samore<\/a>, former White House Co-ordinator for Arms Control.<\/p>\n

Ostensible co-operation between the US and Iran on a common threat changes the dynamics of the talks. Complicating the situation even further are different messages coming from each power, with\u00a0Susan Rice\u00a0insisting<\/a> the US held some \u2018informal consultations\u2019 with Iran about regional issues,\u00a0while Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has claimed that the US approached Iran to seek assistance in combating ISIS<\/a>.<\/p>\n

There are limited prospects for the P5+1 achieving a sustainable outcome from their negotiations with Tehran while world powers are simultaneously distracted by the need to combat an urgent and highly-visible threat.\u00a0The supposed alignment of objectives between the US and Iran has seemingly eroded both the sense of urgency about an effective agreement and ability to achieve one.\u00a0As noted by Clifford D. May<\/a> in the\u00a0Washington Times:<\/p>\n

The Islamic State\u2019s flamboyant barbarism has been consuming the oxygen, making it easy to forget that\u00a0Iran\u00a0has long been, according to the US State Department, the world\u2019s leading state sponsor of terrorism.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The ISIS threat, while theoretically facilitating short-term co-operation between the US and Iran, in the longer-term may well strengthen Iran\u2019s resolve to further its long-standing nuclear ambitions.\u00a0As former US Ambassador to Iraq\u00a0James Jeffrey pointed out<\/a> (paywalled):<\/p>\n

It (ISIS) can destabilise neighbouring states, including Jordan and even Saudi Arabia, drawing on networks of sympathisers in these countries. This could lead to an even greater threat to regional stability… and encourage Iran and other states to seek (and possibly use)\u00a0nuclear\u00a0weapons.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Further,\u00a0AIJAC\u00a0Executive Director Colin Rubenstein writing in The Australian<\/em><\/a> recently commented:<\/p>\n

A significant concern is that the critical efforts to stop an Iranian bomb will be sidelined\u2014or, worse still, Iran and its proxies will be empowered as a result… There is reportedly little progress on the two key issues essential for any nuclear deal… greatly reducing the number of uranium-enriching centrifuges… and stopping construction of the Arak heavy-water nuclear reactor, which will produce easily-weaponised plutonium.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The focus on ISIS is important not only for the fate of nuclear proliferation in Iran but, as Nikolic identified, relevant to other states, including North Korea.\u00a0The Six-Party Talks are still in a hiatus, despite China<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Russia<\/a>\u00a0suggesting they could soon resume.<\/p>\n

With the talks in Vienna facing a November deadline, it remains a strategic imperative that the international focus on ISIS not distract from ensuring Iran can neither secure nuclear weapons, nor produce them on demand.\u00a0The only solution is for the West to pursue a two-track strategy: combating ISIS in a way that doesn\u2019t undermine the effectiveness of the P5+1 talks, whilst ensuring that the negotiations don\u2019t allow Iran\u2019s actions against ISIS to distract from the necessity of a viable outcome.<\/p>\n

Glen Falkenstein is a policy analyst at the Australia\/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council. Image courtesy of the United Nations<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Iran\u2019s securing nuclear weapons would destabilise a region already suffering from mass upheaval, in addition to having dire security implications for the rest of the world. Multilateral efforts to deter the sadistic actions of ISIS, …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":260,"featured_media":16467,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[247,191,993,837,895,935,172,423,274,31],"class_list":["post-16458","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-iran","tag-iraq","tag-isil","tag-isis","tag-islamic-state","tag-nuclear-policy","tag-nuclear-security","tag-nuclear-strategy","tag-syria","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNo to backburner, yes to a two-track strategy | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/no-to-backburner-yes-to-a-two-track-strategy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"No to backburner, yes to a two-track strategy | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Iran\u2019s securing nuclear weapons would destabilise a region already suffering from mass upheaval, in addition to having dire security implications for the rest of the world. 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