{"id":16942,"date":"2014-11-18T06:00:20","date_gmt":"2014-11-17T19:00:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=16942"},"modified":"2014-11-20T11:13:24","modified_gmt":"2014-11-20T00:13:24","slug":"australia-and-fiji-go-from-duel-to-dance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-and-fiji-go-from-duel-to-dance\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia and Fiji go from duel to dance"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Q: How do porcupines make love?<\/em><\/p>\n

A: Carefully.<\/em><\/p>\n

The joke sets up the Australia\u2019s \u2018new era of partnership and prosperity<\/a>\u2019 with Fiji. The goal is to avoid being impaled on the points while pursuing the pleasure. Fiji and Australia already have a lot of wounds to ignore as they embrace, carefully shifting from duel to dance. The dance will have elements of the old duel, with less overt slash and stab. But after eight years of nothing but duel, it\u2019s back to \u2018normal\u2019 to explore what\u2019s possible. Forget past pain to seek future gain. The new era of harmony, though, will be reached porcupine-fashion.<\/p>\n

The embrace is cautious because the two nations have duelled for so long. Even as swords lower, the duel defines the starting point. The embrace of \u2018normal\u2019 is an attempt to think beyond the scars, yet the underlying reality of the duel persists. Much can be changed, and for the better. The new normal offers chances and the re-opening of channels that have been shut by both sides.<\/p>\n

The dance beyond the duel is about rebuilding the relationship. The dialogue\u2014and any understanding\u2014matters for the South Pacific, not least for the discussion<\/a> Suva and Canberra are to lead on the regional architecture. The regionalism conversation between the status quo and the revisionist power<\/a> will be fascinating, whatever fruit it bears.<\/p>\n

Having spent two years waiting for an entry visa from Fiji, Australia\u2019s High Commissioner, Margaret Twomey, finally gets to dance. The wait says something about the diverse weapons deployed in the duel\u2014from mind games to multilateral minuets. Australia announced in December, 2012, that Twomey would go to Suva, restoring diplomatic relations to the highest level<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Despite giving formal agr\u00e9ment <\/em>to Twomey\u2019s appointment, Fiji\u2019s regime refused to let her fill the post, to punish Australia for lack of respect. As with the quick peace-prosperity-and-partnership visit<\/a> to Suva by the Foreign Minister, Julie Bishop, Twomey\u2019s short flight from Oz to Fiji means the end of a long road; no Damascene conversions by either side, but with all sanctions lifted a new journey waits.<\/p>\n

Twomey knows Fiji well from her previous time as Deputy High Commissioner during the 2000 coup, when Frank Bainimarama began the long march to his New Order<\/a>. Having created his version<\/a> of Suharto\u2019s Golkar Party, Bainimarama rules as elected Prime Minister. Australia has accepted, as formally as it needs to, Frank\u2019s New Order (and I\u2019ve stopped calling him Supremo).<\/p>\n

With democracy restored by his own hand, Bainimarama can\u2019t get too paranoid if Australian diplomats talk to all levels of Fijian society. In the Supremo era, diplomatic activity by the Oz High Commission in the hills above Suva (Australia\u2019s finest embassy building in the South Pacific) was seen as plotting to overthrow the New Order. Tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions followed. Furious Frank Funks are still likely, but \u2018normal\u2019 surely means all parts of Fijian society can enjoy their normal rights.<\/p>\n

Australia had a lot of experience dealing with Suharto\u2019s New Order and can apply those lessons. One obvious rule is to watch what the leader says, but attach real weight to what he does. Canberra is attempting a dialogue directed at actions and outcomes, while knowing there\u2019s a good chance of gaps between declarations and deeds. Canberra is used to kicks from Suva (see Furious Frank Funks); they won\u2019t hurt much if good things are also happening.<\/p>\n

Another set of rules concern power and the courtiers. The role of Fiji\u2019s Attorney-General Aiyaz Sayed–<\/strong>Khaiyum, is already worth a book. Aiyaz has wrapped himself so closely around the throne it\u2019s hard to say where the ruler ends and the Attorney-General starts. When Fiji\u2019s Parliament sits, one form of spectator sport is to track whether Aiyaz is scribbling more notes of advice and instruction to the Prime Minister or the Speaker.<\/p>\n

Restoring military relations will offer a useful space<\/a> clear of Aiyaz and close to Frank. The New Order handbook says military-to-military is a vital regime window that helps set the relationship temperature. Having enjoyed the dubious delights of military education and training in China, Fiji\u2019s officer corps is apparently looking forward to the professional and personal pleasures of the Australian Defence Force. At the ADF Weston Creek college, Sitiveni Rabuka and Bainimarama are both on the class honour roll<\/a>\u2014for achieving staff rank, not successful coups.<\/p>\n

In an unusual twist to New Order habits, Australia may be more comfortable re-engaging Fiji\u2019s military than Fiji\u2019s police. That\u2019s because the police answer to Aiyaz. The new dance with Suva has lots of complicated steps.<\/p>\n

Graeme Dobell<\/em><\/a> is the ASPI journalist fellow. Edited image courtesy of Flickr user Dru<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Q: How do porcupines make love? A: Carefully. The joke sets up the Australia\u2019s \u2018new era of partnership and prosperity\u2019 with Fiji. 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