{"id":1699,"date":"2012-10-17T14:39:34","date_gmt":"2012-10-17T04:39:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=1699"},"modified":"2012-10-18T14:38:46","modified_gmt":"2012-10-18T04:38:46","slug":"un-security-council-bid-thinking-the-unthinkable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/un-security-council-bid-thinking-the-unthinkable\/","title":{"rendered":"UN Security Council bid: thinking the unthinkable"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"View<\/a><\/figure>\n

We will know around Friday afternoon whether Australia has been successful in winning its bid for a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Having just returned from a trip to New York, the vibe I picked up there was cautious, perhaps even a little worried, about our chances. Our rivals for the seat, Finland and Luxembourg, have run effective campaigns and are not be underestimated: the outcome could be nail-bitingly close. Anthony Bergin and I wrote last week about why it\u2019s very much in Australia\u2019s interest to hold a seat on the Security Council<\/a>. We are a middle power with global interests and being able to steer the UN\u2014imperfect as it is\u2014along tracks important to us is no small benefit. But good strategists also consider the down side risks: what happens if we lose the bid?<\/p>\n

First up, recrimination will be the order of the day. A loss will mean that this weekend\u2019s media will be full of astonished pundits expressing wonder about how it is that two of Europe\u2019s minnows beat us to the seat: \u2018Luxembourg, are you serious?\u2019 It will be like losing the World Cup bid to Qatar. No attention will be paid to the fact that our competitors were campaigning for years before Australia started its bid. As the world is seen from New York, no one owes Australia a free lunch no matter how consequential we<\/em> think we are. Although the Opposition has endorsed the bid in a low key way, a loss will lead to predictable charges of mismanagement<\/a>. Some might wonder why the Prime Minister was bought so strongly and publicly into the last weeks of the campaign.<\/p>\n

After the anger comes the grieving, accompanied by soul-searching about Australia\u2019s place in the world. One productive way to channel this emotion would be to review Australia\u2019s overseas diplomatic presence. The Lowy Institute has catalogued in persuasive detail the inadequate state of our diplomatic presence<\/a>. With only five missions to cover Africa and with multiple posts with only one or two Australian staff, DFAT has been strangled for resources for the better part of fifteen years. In a world becoming more competitive and multipolar, Australia must increase resourcing for our diplomatic effort abroad or else risk losing influence. Take the UK as an example; in vastly more difficult financial circumstances than ours, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office is increasing its diplomatic presence across Asia by 110 people<\/a>. By comparison, in North Asia our total Australian based DFAT presence is 68 (with 182 in Southeast Asia)<\/a>. We shouldn\u2019t be puzzled that we struggle to have our voice heard internationally.<\/p>\n

Predictably, there\u2019ll be those in Australia who oppose our alliance with the US and will claim that a failed bid is the result of us being too close to Washington and that a more \u2018independent\u2019 Australian foreign policy would have garnered more votes. The alliance may lose us some votes but it will undoubtedly gain others. Most Permanent Representatives at the UN will vote on the basis of a colder calculation about where their national interests resides. An important component of Australia\u2019s global prominence (such as it is) comes from the value-add the US alliance gives us: a quality Defence Force; a capacity to meaningfully participate in peacekeeping and coalition operations; a serious minded and informed approach to security issues. In short our alliance strengthens the case for a Security Council seat.<\/p>\n

A final consequence of a loss for Australia is that it will create the most unpromising environment for the government to launch the now overdue report on Australia in the Asian Century<\/em>. I\u2019ve written about the curiously 1990s feel to the discussions<\/a> about this report, with its apparent focus on our relations with seven countries in Asia. It remains to be seen if that characteristic is still evident after the White Paper\u2019s reported make-over in the last few weeks<\/a>. I\u2019m speculating here, but if we do lose, some dots should be drawn between that event and a narrowly focussed Asian Century White Paper or the fact that it\u2019s been overdue for some time now. As Asia goes global we might ask why Australia\u2019s interests are served by narrow-casting our interests in the region. Expect then a return to the debate of whether Australia is a country with Asian or wider global interests.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s hope that the bid is a success. The consequences of not winning the UN seat would be bad for our interests and, in fact, bad for the UN because Australia would be a committed and creative Security Council member. Even if we\u2019re not successful, the right thing to do would be to forgo recriminations and instead fix the problems that are weakening our international presence in an increasingly complex international environment.<\/p>\n

Peter Jennings<\/a>\u00a0is executive director\u00a0of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.\u00a0Image courtesy of Flickr user United Nations Photo<\/a>.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We will know around Friday afternoon whether Australia has been successful in winning its bid for a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Having just returned from a trip to New York, the vibe …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":1700,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[41,17,92,149],"class_list":["post-1699","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-asian-century","tag-australia","tag-united-nations","tag-united-nations-security-council"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUN Security Council bid: thinking the unthinkable | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/un-security-council-bid-thinking-the-unthinkable\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"UN Security Council bid: thinking the unthinkable | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We will know around Friday afternoon whether Australia has been successful in winning its bid for a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council. 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