{"id":17261,"date":"2014-12-04T12:30:46","date_gmt":"2014-12-04T01:30:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=17261"},"modified":"2014-12-09T09:35:35","modified_gmt":"2014-12-08T22:35:35","slug":"afghanistan-the-plot-thickens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/afghanistan-the-plot-thickens\/","title":{"rendered":"Afghanistan: the plot thickens"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Afghan<\/a>Last week, the New York Times<\/em> reported<\/a> that the post-2014 mission in Afghanistan is expanding, at least for US forces. The move \u2018ensures American troops will have a direct role in fighting in the war-ravaged country for at least another year\u2019. Of the 12,000 troops expected to remain in Afghanistan as part of the international coalition next year, approximately 9,800 will be Americans. Since the article\u2019s publication, the Department of Defense has denied allegations<\/a> that the Afghanistan mission has changed or that the combat role for international forces is extending into 2015.<\/p>\n

So what\u2019s happened? A few weeks ago, President Obama signed an order clarifying authorities that US military commanders will have after the end of the ISAF combat mission this month. Those authorities allow \u2018American forces to carry out missions against Taliban and other militant groups threatening American troops or the Afghan government\u2026 [T]he new authorization also allows American jets, bombers and drones to support Afghan troops on combat missions\u2019. The Pentagon helpfully added that US troops may provide field-level support for Afghan security forces.<\/p>\n

The New York Times<\/em> expected that, under a non-combat mission, the military would be prohibited from conducting such activities. By stating that the mission hasn\u2019t changed, the US Defense Department is arguing that those authorities constitute part of the train, advise, and assist mission and\/or counterterrorism mission authorised for 2015.<\/p>\n

As my colleague Jan K. Gleiman outlined<\/a> a few months ago, defining a train, advise, and assist mission isn\u2019t clear-cut. The leaked authorities would allow troops to venture out from behind the wire a bit more often than expected, but they aren\u2019t necessarily mandates for offensive combat. They could be described as enhanced force protection measures, particularly given the escalating security situation. The Taliban claims that the 11 attacks<\/a> in Kabul in last two to three weeks are aimed at forcing foreigners to leave the capital. International troops and aid partners are definitely still being targeted.<\/p>\n

But other than an outright attack, what\u2019s the US military\u2019s threshold for action? Because let\u2019s face it\u2014Afghanistan will continue to be an active warzone in 2015. Pentagon spokesperson Rear Admiral John Kirby<\/a> attempted clarification by stating:<\/p>\n

Should members of the Taliban decide to threaten American troops or specifically target or threaten our Afghan partners in a tactical situation, we’re going to reserve the right to take action as needed. If they pose a threat directly to our troops or to the Afghan security forces, certainly then they become fair game at that point.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

So we aren\u2019t targeting the Taliban as a group, but if they get into a confrontation with the Coalition or the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), they\u2019re fair game. But that\u2019s happening continuously across the country now, so it really doesn\u2019t provide much clarification.<\/p>\n

Depending on the threat level required for action, the list of acceptable engagements mightn\u2019t be shrinking as dramatically as the US Department of Defense would like us to believe. Still, the strategic priorities are institution-building and reconciliation rather than winning every skirmish with the Taliban.<\/p>\n

The second part of the New York Times<\/em>\u2019 revelation, that American jets, bombers and drones will be allowed to support Afghan troops on combat missions, can be filed under \u2018enabler support\u2019. The Pentagon has been saying for years that the ANSF will need enabler support beyond 2014, so it should come as no surprise that the Pentagon\u2019s delivering on those predictions.<\/p>\n

So strategically speaking, do the expanded authorities matter? Yes and no.<\/p>\n

Since the 2010 Lisbon Summit Declaration<\/a>, the international community\u2019s agreed that the transition of security responsibility to the ANSF should be conditions-based, but the expansion of authorities is the first concrete sign this might be the case. That may indicate the White House has learned some lessons from Iraq and is going to be more cautious with the exit from Afghanistan.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, while the expanded authorities may give the ANSF increased confidence on the battlefield, they\u2019re unlikely to affect the trajectory of the campaign. Instead of altering a strategy that falters with decreasing international assistance, we\u2019re simply extending some of the old rules into 2014. It\u2019s not that these additional authorities are insignificant, but rather that they are unlikely to make a strategic impact given the one- to two-year time period. International troop levels and assistance will continue to decline, and with it, the viability of the mission. The ANSF and key ministries simply aren\u2019t ready to stand on their own.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, the campaign is still only conditions-based to a point. The resources aren\u2019t expanding, so the personnel providing enabler support and enhanced force protection aren\u2019t spending as much time training, advising, and assisting the Afghans. There\u2019s no reason to think that the security threats will dissipate significantly in 2015, nor that the situation will be stable by the time the US draws down to a normal embassy presence in just two years time.<\/p>\n

Finally, it\u2019s important to remember that President Ghani is much more open to international action than President Karzai was. So US troop authorities for 2015 may reflect a change in Kabul rather than in Washington. If that\u2019s a portent of Afghan-instigated changes to come, this might just be the strategic shift the campaign needs.<\/p>\n

Brieana Marticorena<\/a> is a visiting fellow at ASPI. Image courtesy of Flickr user U.S. Department of Defense Current Photos<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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