{"id":17979,"date":"2015-01-27T14:30:00","date_gmt":"2015-01-27T03:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=17979"},"modified":"2015-01-28T10:09:49","modified_gmt":"2015-01-27T23:09:49","slug":"an-australian-view-of-nuclear-deterrence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/an-australian-view-of-nuclear-deterrence\/","title":{"rendered":"An Australian view of nuclear deterrence"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>No Australian minister has made a full-blooded speech on nuclear deterrence for many a long year\u2014not since the early 1990s, I suspect. In truth, that\u2019s not surprising: it\u2019s been proliferation that\u2019s grabbed all the attention since then. Moreover, talking about nuclear weapons requires the speaker to perform a delicate balancing act between upholding the current reliance upon nuclear weapons and endorsing a longer-term post-nuclear vision. Because nuclear weapons are\u2014by their nature\u2014scary, the speech has to contain core elements of reassurance and moderation. And there are no votes in it.<\/p>\n

True, a succession of governments over the last couple of decades have nailed their colours to the mast on deterrence as part of formal declaratory defence policy. Those wanting to trace the issue through a succession of Defence White Papers (DWPs) since the end of the Cold War should have a look at paragraph 9.7 in the 1994 DWP<\/a>, paragraph 5.15 in the 2000 DWP<\/a>, paragraph 6.34 in the 2009 DWP<\/a>, and paragraph 3.41 in the 2013 DWP<\/a>. Echoes from those DWPs can subsequently be heard in other ministerial comments\u2014in Stephen Smith\u2019s response to the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament report<\/a> of late 2009, for example.<\/p>\n

But none of the White Papers unpacks government thinking about nuclear deterrence and, in particular, extended nuclear deterrence, in detail. Indeed, most governments seem to have convinced themselves that\u2014on that topic at least\u2014the less said the better. The Rudd government went so far as to say that if extended nuclear deterrence ceased to be effective, \u2018significant and expensive defence options\u2019 would come onto the Australian strategic policy agenda\u2014a statement which implies that nuclear deterrence isn\u2019t merely long-lived, but important for Australian security. The Gillard government thought that a bridge too far. Its DWP endorsed extended nuclear deterrence in much the same manner as its predecessors, but the comment about significant and expensive options disappeared.<\/p>\n

So what should a more long-winded statement actually say? First, that the government retains its commitment to a Menzian vision<\/a> of nuclear weapons. Menzians\u2014as opposed to Gortonians and disarmers\u2014are \u2018middle-of-the-road\u2019 thinkers. They believe that nuclear weapons can play a stabilising role in international order, so long as they\u2019re held by great powers sensible enough to be self-deterred in their use. They believe that nuclear deterrence works, and that arms control has a distinct role to play both in moderating the tensions between the nuclear powers and in preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons to a less exclusive set of owners. Finally, they believe that US extended nuclear deterrence to its allies, including Australia, works well enough that Australia has no need of its own arsenal (though in just about every prot\u00e9g\u00e9 state there\u2019s a debate over what \u2018well enough\u2019 means).<\/p>\n

Second, a statement would say that the government believes a post-nuclear world is possible but not close\u2014indeed, it might be drifting further away. What\u2019s close is strategic transformation in Asia, and nuclear weapons\u2019 role as an order-stabiliser might well have a part to play before that transformation\u2019s complete. Because of that, Australia accepts that its ally, the US, will soon embark upon a wave of nuclear-weapon modernisation, and that nuclear weapons might come to have a more important role in US alliances in Asia than hitherto. Such developments are likely because nuclear deterrence will retain its role as an important gravitational shaper of international relations, and a cap on major-power war.<\/p>\n

Third\u2014following on from the second point\u2014that Australia supports the US deploying a nuclear arsenal of the size and shape needed to support nuclear deterrence in general and to extend nuclear deterrence to allies and partners. The Australian government believes that a failure of US extended nuclear deterrence\u2014currently offered as an assurance to nearly forty countries\u2014would not simply be a serious problem for Australia but would likely precipitate a wave of nuclear proliferation that would be destabilising for global and regional order.<\/p>\n

Fourth, that the idea of sole purpose that\u2019s underpinned most official Australian commentary about nuclear weapons should be read merely as an empirical statement about Australian strategic conditions in a non-transformational Asia\u2014not as an ideological position denying the utility of nuclear weapons in countering large-scale conventional force. Geography and distance, plus US conventional force superiority, have previously provided Australia with the luxury of thinking about nuclear deterrence only within specific scenarios\u2014such as a nuclear attack upon the Australian continent\u2014but it\u2019s uncertain whether that luxury will endure.<\/p>\n

Fifth, that Australia remains a strong advocate of nuclear non-proliferation, arms control and eventual disarmament. A world in which many fingers rest on many triggers would be an unhealthy and dangerous one. But nuclear disarmament can\u2019t be sensibly discussed except in the context of other moves to stabilise and enhance international security.<\/p>\n

Between them, those points say the following: Australian policymakers have a sensible, \u2018centrist\u2019 approach to nuclear weapons; they believe that nuclear weapons still have a positive role to play in global and regional security; they accept that the US has to field an arsenal that supports its doctrine and obligations; they don\u2019t accept the doctrinal shibboleth of sole purpose; and they favour non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament. And that\u2019s a position we should be willing to put on record.<\/p>\n

Rod Lyon<\/em><\/a> is a fellow at ASPI and executive editor of\u00a0<\/em>The Strategist. Image courtesy of Flickr user Marc Wathieu<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

No Australian minister has made a full-blooded speech on nuclear deterrence for many a long year\u2014not since the early 1990s, I suspect. In truth, that\u2019s not surprising: it\u2019s been proliferation that\u2019s grabbed all the attention …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":18023,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[17,416,474,116,485,172,600,356],"class_list":["post-17979","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australia","tag-australian-government","tag-extended-nuclear-assurance","tag-nuclear-deterrence","tag-nuclear-disarmament","tag-nuclear-security","tag-nuclear-war","tag-nuclear-weapons"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAn Australian view of nuclear deterrence | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/an-australian-view-of-nuclear-deterrence\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"An Australian view of nuclear deterrence | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"No Australian minister has made a full-blooded speech on nuclear deterrence for many a long year\u2014not since the early 1990s, I suspect. 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