{"id":18028,"date":"2015-01-28T11:30:49","date_gmt":"2015-01-28T00:30:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=18028"},"modified":"2015-01-29T10:14:05","modified_gmt":"2015-01-28T23:14:05","slug":"what-were-securing-against","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-were-securing-against\/","title":{"rendered":"What we\u2019re securing against"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"What<\/a>The past week has been a rich one for annual events. For Aussies, of course, the major one was Australia Day. Here in the US we\u2019ve seen two others: the kick-off of the annual G\u2019day USA<\/a> public diplomacy effort, and President Barack Obama\u2019s 2015 State of the Union (SOTU) address<\/a>. Those two events combined with a few others last week to offer a rich field of insights into how US and Australian policymakers perceive the security threats our countries face.<\/p>\n

Starting on Tuesday night with the SOTU, we heard of an Administration most concerned with America\u2019s middle-class economics and keen to \u2018turn the page\u2019 on some hard years of economic troubles and taxing military exertions. Obama didn\u2019t tackle \u2018hard\u2019 national security and foreign policy until the second half of the speech and, when he did, terrorism dominated his remarks. Terrorism was the context for the first mention of US international security efforts and arose again in connection with ISIL, cyber security, the closure of the Guantanamo Bay detention facility, and the need for transparency and reform in America\u2019s security surveillance practices.<\/p>\n

Compared with previous SOTU addresses, Obama\u2019s treatment of security was reasonably weighty, but he was careful not to let it stray too far from home, cleverly securitising some contentious aspects of his domestic policy, including climate change and even lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender equality. His remarks certainly had the flavour of his coming battles with a Republican-dominated legislature and the 2016 election campaign.<\/p>\n

The theme of terrorism was reinforced by the Chief of Staff of the US Army, General Ray Odierno, in a speech<\/a> to an advocacy organisation the following morning. Odierno stressed that, despite the draw-down of forces in the Middle East and Afghanistan and the shrinking of the full-time Army, terrorism \u2018is not going away\u2019 and must be confronted by the institutional Army in its force structure and capabilities.<\/p>\n

Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence Dr Mike Vickers sustained the emphasis on terrorism at a think-tank event<\/a> the same day, describing terrorism and cyber threats as the major short-term threats faced by the US.<\/p>\n

Terrorism was raised again on Wednesday, this time by Australian voices, during a conference on the US\u2013Australia Alliance. The Prime Minister\u2019s senior adviser on national security, Andrew Shearer<\/a>, listed domestic terrorism as his principal contemporary national security concern, citing terrorism again as an important theme in the bilateral intelligence relationship. That emphasis was repeated by Foreign Minister Julie Bishop<\/a> in her keynote address a little later, in which it was the principal security challenge addressed. But Bishop\u2019s remarks did reveal a more expansive view of international security, reinforcing the role of Westphalian nation-states in the international system on which Australia relies and hinting at a globalist view of Australia\u2019s security challenges and responsibilities.<\/p>\n

The emphasis on terrorism as the dominant contemporary security threat is interesting in light of another event last week: the release of the World Economic Forum\u2019s Global Risks<\/a> 2015 Report. That well-regarded annual assessment of the risks facing both individual countries and the international system acknowledges terrorist attacks as a significant problem, but for the first time in several years also presents inter-state conflict as the most likely high-impact risk of the next decade\u2014a risk not given the same weight in Australian and US policymakers\u2019 recent comments.<\/p>\n

This tension between the immediate threat of terrorism and longer-term risk of inter-state conflict is a problem for both countries\u2019 national security planning. As much as anything the challenge may be one of policy bandwidth\u2014the ability to deal with terrorism and other sub-state threats constantly, while making critical long-term force structure and investment decisions in a resource environment that is\u2014for the US\u2014historically constrained. Getting that wrong could result in a security apparatus that\u2019s adequate for neither.<\/p>\n

Australia\u2019s confronted with fewer choices in this area and the decisions already made on sea- and airlift and airpower, along with the ground-force capabilities coming from Project LAND 400\u2014if it delivers\u2014should give us reasonable options across the spectrum. This year\u2019s defence white paper will be an opportunity to lay out the rationale for those decisions by explaining what it is we\u2019re securing ourselves against, and how we mean to do it. For the US, whose hard power is much more important to the international system, the choices are tougher and the consequences of error more significant. The debate over those choices bears careful watching.<\/p>\n

Andrew Smith is a consultant and independent researcher based in the United States. Image courtesy of Flickr user Mike<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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