{"id":18221,"date":"2015-02-09T12:30:51","date_gmt":"2015-02-09T01:30:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=18221"},"modified":"2015-02-16T18:41:16","modified_gmt":"2015-02-16T07:41:16","slug":"sea-state-02","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/sea-state-02\/","title":{"rendered":"Sea State"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"The<\/a>There was a fascinating blip on the radar this week\u2014a branch of Chinese local government accidentally let slip<\/a> that work on China\u2019s second aircraft carrier is underway. Boasts that a local company in Changzhou, Jiangshu province, had won a contract to provide electrical cabling were swiftly deleted, as was a report in a local newspaper.<\/p>\n

A second carrier fits into a broader trend of growth for the Chinese navy, both in capacity and ambition. This piece<\/a> from The Diplomat<\/em> is a reminder of China\u2019s growing presence in the Indian Ocean. More Chinese carrier-related analysis here<\/a> from James Holmes.<\/p>\n

Still on China\u2019s maritime ambition, The Washington Quarterly<\/em> carried a piece on \u2018The myth of Chinese counter-intervention<\/a>\u2019. The heart of the argument:<\/p>\n

\u2026although China is certainly developing military capabilities that would complicate U.S. intervention in a major conflict in the region involving China, Chinese writings on military strategy and operations rarely if ever mention the concept of counter-intervention.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The article\u2019s received considerable attention, but the central premise seems open to challenge. If we judge that China has the capability to deny the waters of East Asia to American surface vessels, it\u2019d be courageous to assume they wouldn\u2019t just because they hadn\u2019t written about it often.<\/p>\n

The Australian<\/em> last week\u00a0<\/em>carried a story<\/a> about the Prime Minister\u2019s Office shelving an announcement on the future submarine program late last year, in which:<\/p>\n

It is understood that France, Germany, Sweden and Japan were to be named in a selective tender process that would allow Australia to solicit bids from other governments, rather than just corporations.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

New-ish Defence Minister Kevin Andrews has said he intends to take a cautious approach to the new submarine:<\/p>\n

It\u2019s better to take a little bit more time and get the decision right rather than rushing into something, which given the life of any of these vessels, which is 30 to 40 years or so, that you make a mistake about.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Yesterday evening Prime Minister Tony Abbott promised<\/a> that Australian shipbuilder ASC will be able to tender for the Royal Australian Navy\u2019s next generation of submarines. ‘You would expect the Australian Government to want to get the best product and you would expect the Australian Government to give Australian suppliers a fair go’, the PM said.<\/p>\n

On the supply side, Angela Merkel seems particularly keen<\/a> that Germany have a shot at providing the Collins<\/em>-class replacement. IHS Jane\u2019s has it<\/a> that German company TKMS has also offered submarines to Thailand.<\/p>\n

Australia now as supplier, not customer: Defence Minister Kevin Andrews has undertaken to donate<\/a> two Landing Craft Heavy vessels to the Philippines, the HMAS Tarakan <\/em>and Brunei<\/em>, formerly of the RAN. That comes as PAL in Indonesia finishes off<\/a> building two Strategic Sealift vessels for Manila.<\/p>\n

Finally, South Korea has this week launched its Submarine Force Command<\/a>. \u2018The launch of the submarine force command is a clear display of our will to perfectly defend our East, West and South Seas through the enhanced quality and quantity of our submarine capabilities\u2019, the ROK Navy press release noted.<\/p>\n

Harry White<\/em><\/a> is an analyst at ASPI. Image courtesy of\u00a0Department of Defence<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There was a fascinating blip on the radar this week\u2014a branch of Chinese local government accidentally let slip that work on China\u2019s second aircraft carrier is underway. 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