{"id":18475,"date":"2015-02-19T06:00:15","date_gmt":"2015-02-18T19:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=18475"},"modified":"2015-02-19T13:35:29","modified_gmt":"2015-02-19T02:35:29","slug":"re-envisioning-the-second-nuclear-age","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/re-envisioning-the-second-nuclear-age\/","title":{"rendered":"Re-envisioning the second nuclear age"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Banksy's<\/a><\/figure>\n

Concepts are long-lived in the world of strategy\u2014so long-lived that we need to revisit them periodically to confirm that their meaning hasn\u2019t shifted. Lately, I\u2019ve started thinking that the notion of a \u2018second nuclear age\u2019 has matured a lot during the last twenty years. Indeed, the concept has evolved through three distinct variations, each a little more worrying than its predecessor.<\/p>\n

In its first formulation, the concept warned of the potential failure of deterrence doctrine when nuclear weapons spread to \u2018rogue states\u2019 such as North Korea. That\u2019s because strategists in the 1990s found it difficult to imagine the circumstances in which nuclear weapons would once more have the prominence in great-power relationships that they had during the Cold War years. In consequence, there was an emphasis placed on the new, the weak and the poor\u2014\u2018underdogs\u2019 Robert O\u2019Neill once called them\u2014as the future problems of the nuclear world.<\/p>\n

In that vein, Keith Payne\u2019s Deterrence in the Second Nuclear Age<\/em><\/a> (1995) and Paul Bracken\u2019s Fire in the East<\/em><\/a> (1999) both signalled the difficulties that deterrence encountered from proliferation. Bracken wrote of a second nuclear age characterised by nationalism rather than ideology; a willingness to use other kinds of weapons of mass destruction, like chemical weapons; impoverished nuclear weapon states; shaky command and control systems; difficulties in communicating and bargaining with the West; deliberate reductions in conventional capabilities to permit greater nuclear capacities; and less willingness to model deterrence policies upon the strict logic of game theory.<\/p>\n

Then, in 2004, almost a decade after writers initially began to contemplate the strategic significance of rogue nuclear powers, a small group of strategists\u2014Kurt Campbell, Robert Einhorn and Mitchell Reiss\u2014wrote of the emergence of a potential nuclear tipping point<\/a>. Regional proliferators risked exciting small proliferation chains\u2014and among status quo powers, not merely rogues. That book contained a set of case studies outlining possible proliferation by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, Germany, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The broader message about the second nuclear age became more complicated. Rogues were bad enough, but proliferation chains might, indeed, undo the broader global nuclear order, set at its core by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). The NPT had obliged most states to choose their future nuclear identity at the end of the 1960s and beginning of the 1970s, and thirty-odd years down the track, there was the chance that some had repented of their choice.<\/p>\n

In 2015, I think we\u2019re beginning to see the second nuclear age in its third variation. Paul Bracken warned in his 2012 work The Second Nuclear Age<\/a><\/em> that nuclear weapons were returning to relevance among the traditional great-power members of the nuclear club, but tensions between those players have increased noticeably since then. The possibility that seemed remote in the 1990s now seems less remote. The P5 are modernising their weapons\u2014and it\u2019s strategy and not mere technological obsolescence that\u2019s driving those modernisation programs. In short, the strategic significance of nuclear weapons is going up in relation to the \u2018top dogs\u2019, and not merely in relation to the underdogs and their status-quo regional neighbours.<\/p>\n

This third variation of the second nuclear age (an ungainly expression) carries us into even more difficult terrain. Tensions between Russia and the West have increased, bringing with them both Russian behaviour\u2014like long-range bomber patrols\u2014reminiscent of the Cold War years and echoes of the nuclear debates in Europe during that period. In Asia, uncertainties resulting from the growth of Chinese conventional power are driving a brisker discussion about US extended nuclear assurance. In the Middle East, Iran\u2019s nuclear future\u2014and thus the region\u2019s\u2014is murky.<\/p>\n

Nuclear weapons are making a comeback, but we\u2019re sorely lacking in a good understanding of where they\u2019re going to fit in both national and international strategies. If we can\u2019t get rid of them\u2014and we can\u2019t\u2014how can they be leveraged in the current international environment to provide the greatest contribution to international security? Since the end of the Cold War, the generation of nuclear strategic thinkers who concentrated upon such questions has largely passed. A new generation needs to address the topic.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the topic itself has become harder. Future nuclear strategists aren\u2019t just dealing with the Cold War problem of how to ensure deterrence and stability in a bipolar relationship of risk-averse and economically-decoupled superpowers. Great-power strategic relationships are more multipolar. There are larger worries about the possible leakage of nuclear weapons to non-state actors. And those two earlier waves of the second nuclear age did reflect genuine concerns: rogues and potential proliferation chains now haunt the order in a way they haven\u2019t since the end of the 1960s. A major challenge lies ahead in a field in which we\u2019ve been shedding expertise rather than nurturing it.<\/p>\n

Rod Lyon\u00a0is a fellow at ASPI and executive editor of\u00a0<\/em>The Strategist. Edited image courtesy of Flickr user Miquel C<\/a>.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Concepts are long-lived in the world of strategy\u2014so long-lived that we need to revisit them periodically to confirm that their meaning hasn\u2019t shifted. Lately, I\u2019ve started thinking that the notion of a \u2018second nuclear age\u2019 …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":18476,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1143,206,116,356,21],"class_list":["post-18475","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-great-powers","tag-non-proliferation","tag-nuclear-deterrence","tag-nuclear-weapons","tag-strategy-2"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRe-envisioning the second nuclear age | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/re-envisioning-the-second-nuclear-age\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Re-envisioning the second nuclear age | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Concepts are long-lived in the world of strategy\u2014so long-lived that we need to revisit them periodically to confirm that their meaning hasn\u2019t shifted. 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