{"id":18587,"date":"2015-02-25T10:00:55","date_gmt":"2015-02-24T23:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=18587"},"modified":"2015-02-25T16:16:35","modified_gmt":"2015-02-25T05:16:35","slug":"national-security-a-surprise-present","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/national-security-a-surprise-present\/","title":{"rendered":"National security: a surprise present"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Surprise\u2014national security agencies are now expected to face a threat growing in capability and intent and the government will reconsider whether they will do so with only slightly less money.<\/p>\n

The Prime Minister\u2019s National Security Statement shone a light on a range of counter-terrorism measures and noted the release of the Counter-Terrorism Machinery Review<\/em><\/a> commissioned last August. To the surprise of few, the review reports that our security agencies have identified risks to national security outcomes if their base funding continues to be eroded (by between 1.25 and 4%).<\/p>\n

The review\u2019s authors provide an assessment of the impacts of the government\u2019s efficiency dividend (ED) in terms of frontline staff reductions and diminished collection and analytical capabilities. To this end, the report recommends that<\/p>\n

the ED be removed from the operational activities of the Australian Customs and Border Protect Services (ACBPS), Australian Federal Police (AFP), Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) and the Australian Secret Intelligence Service (ASIS), and for the ED to be completely removed from the Office of National Assessments (ONA) and Office of the Inspector General of Intelligence and Security (OIGIS).<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The government has agreed to reconsider the application of the ED. If accepted, the changes are expected to cost in excess of $180 million dollars over the next two years.<\/p>\n

Since 1987, the ED has been a central principle in successive Australian budgets. I\u2019d argue that initially the ED resulted in reductions to inefficient expenditure in non-operational areas within national security agencies, which was long overdue. As the number of non-operational efficiencies available to decision makers decreased, cuts to operational expenditure became inevitable and, finally, commonplace.<\/p>\n

To address the effects of reductions in expenditure, national security agencies developed new policy initiatives to obtain sufficient funding to offset risks to national security. For 10 or so years a delicate equilibrium of cuts and then \u2018just in time\u2019 policy initiatives was maintained. The budget reality of the last two years has seen a drastic reduction in the availability of new funding\u2014which is resulting in incremental reductions in national security capability.<\/p>\n

Whilst some cynics might view the review\u2019s ED recommendations as a means of increasing national security spending by stealth, I believe that it\u2019s a modest step towards capability maintenance. By freeing the national security agencies\u2019 operational programs from ED, attention can be directed towards addressing the challenge of funding increasing employee costs and capability development. Maintenance of operational capability in the national security space is not cost neutral. In the current dynamic threat environment, substantive resource investment is required to maintain the effectiveness of many of our existing national security capabilities. The changes, if adopted, will go some way to reducing budgetary pressures for agencies, though they won\u2019t ensure the necessary investments in research and development.<\/p>\n

The delivery of effective strategies to disrupt potential terrorists will require more than an extinguishment of the ED. If ASIO is to address its 400 high priority counter-terrorism investigations (double last year\u2019s number), serious new investments in capability and research are required. Similarly, the disruption of potential terrorist threats will need an increase in operational intelligence collection and analysis. The ED recommendations are good news to the national security agencies, and to operational capability, but further investment will be required if the tenets of the PM\u2019s national security statement are to be achieved.<\/p>\n

John Coyne is a senior analyst at ASPI. Edited image courtesy of Flickr user Michael Verhoef<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Surprise\u2014national security agencies are now expected to face a threat growing in capability and intent and the government will reconsider whether they will do so with only slightly less money. The Prime Minister\u2019s National Security …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":310,"featured_media":18588,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1031,17,120,301,132],"class_list":["post-18587","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-asio","tag-australia","tag-budget","tag-national-security-2","tag-tony-abbott"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNational security: a surprise present | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/national-security-a-surprise-present\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"National security: a surprise present | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Surprise\u2014national security agencies are now expected to face a threat growing in capability and intent and the government will reconsider whether they will do so with only slightly less money. The Prime Minister\u2019s National Security ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/national-security-a-surprise-present\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-02-24T23:00:55+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2015-02-25T05:16:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/2726767671_2ecf205d95_z.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"427\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"John Coyne\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"John Coyne\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/national-security-a-surprise-present\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/2726767671_2ecf205d95_z.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/2726767671_2ecf205d95_z.jpg\",\"width\":640,\"height\":427},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/national-security-a-surprise-present\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/national-security-a-surprise-present\/\",\"name\":\"National security: a surprise present | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/national-security-a-surprise-present\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2015-02-24T23:00:55+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2015-02-25T05:16:35+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/a67980596297e3db4ad0b3fde70aa778\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/national-security-a-surprise-present\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/national-security-a-surprise-present\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/national-security-a-surprise-present\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"National security: a surprise present\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/a67980596297e3db4ad0b3fde70aa778\",\"name\":\"John Coyne\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e84af569f04d25615d1447d4fe1908a9?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e84af569f04d25615d1447d4fe1908a9?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"John Coyne\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/john-coyne\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"National security: a surprise present | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/national-security-a-surprise-present\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"National security: a surprise present | The Strategist","og_description":"Surprise\u2014national security agencies are now expected to face a threat growing in capability and intent and the government will reconsider whether they will do so with only slightly less money. The Prime Minister\u2019s National Security ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/national-security-a-surprise-present\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2015-02-24T23:00:55+00:00","article_modified_time":"2015-02-25T05:16:35+00:00","og_image":[{"width":640,"height":427,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/2726767671_2ecf205d95_z.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"John Coyne","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"John Coyne","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/national-security-a-surprise-present\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/2726767671_2ecf205d95_z.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/2726767671_2ecf205d95_z.jpg","width":640,"height":427},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/national-security-a-surprise-present\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/national-security-a-surprise-present\/","name":"National security: a surprise present | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/national-security-a-surprise-present\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2015-02-24T23:00:55+00:00","dateModified":"2015-02-25T05:16:35+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/a67980596297e3db4ad0b3fde70aa778"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/national-security-a-surprise-present\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/national-security-a-surprise-present\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/national-security-a-surprise-present\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"National security: a surprise present"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/a67980596297e3db4ad0b3fde70aa778","name":"John Coyne","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e84af569f04d25615d1447d4fe1908a9?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e84af569f04d25615d1447d4fe1908a9?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"John Coyne"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/john-coyne\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18587"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/310"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18587"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18587\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18637,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18587\/revisions\/18637"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18588"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18587"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18587"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18587"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}