{"id":19307,"date":"2015-03-27T06:00:53","date_gmt":"2015-03-26T19:00:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=19307"},"modified":"2015-03-27T11:06:24","modified_gmt":"2015-03-27T00:06:24","slug":"option-j-would-you-like-strategic-benefits-with-that","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/option-j-would-you-like-strategic-benefits-with-that\/","title":{"rendered":"Option J\u2014would you like strategic benefits with that?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/JS_Hakuryu_SS-503_arrives_at_Joint_Base_Pearl_Harbor-Hickam_for_a_scheduled_port_visit_-6_Feb._2013_YP255-023.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-19313 size-full\" title=\"Japan Maritime Self Defense Force (JMSDF) submarine Hakuryu (SS-503) arrives at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam for a scheduled port visit, Feb. 6. While in port, the submarine crew will conduct various training evolutions and have the opportunity to enjoy the sights and culture of Hawaii. (U.S. Navy photo by Cmdr. Christy Hagen\/Released)\" src=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/JS_Hakuryu_SS-503_arrives_at_Joint_Base_Pearl_Harbor-Hickam_for_a_scheduled_port_visit_-6_Feb._2013_YP255-023.jpg\" alt=\"Japan Maritime Self Defense Force (JMSDF) submarine Hakuryu (SS-503) arrives at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam for a scheduled port visit, Feb. 6. While in port, the submarine crew will conduct various training evolutions and have the opportunity to enjoy the sights and culture of Hawaii. (U.S. Navy photo by Cmdr. Christy Hagen\/Released)\" width=\"800\" height=\"534\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/JS_Hakuryu_SS-503_arrives_at_Joint_Base_Pearl_Harbor-Hickam_for_a_scheduled_port_visit_-6_Feb._2013_YP255-023.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/JS_Hakuryu_SS-503_arrives_at_Joint_Base_Pearl_Harbor-Hickam_for_a_scheduled_port_visit_-6_Feb._2013_YP255-023-205x137.jpg 205w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/JS_Hakuryu_SS-503_arrives_at_Joint_Base_Pearl_Harbor-Hickam_for_a_scheduled_port_visit_-6_Feb._2013_YP255-023-332x221.jpg 332w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a>There\u2019s a lot of talk about submarines again this week thanks to the <a href=\"http:\/\/subsummit.com.au\/\" target=\"_blank\">SubSummit<\/a> conference in Adelaide. Perhaps not surprisingly given the venue, much of the focus was on the local versus offshore build aspect. That\u2019s all fair enough\u2014we\u2019re talking big dollars here, and the size of the program is such that all of the potential stakeholders have plenty of reasons to make their pitch. That\u2019s a good thing\u2014the more the various options are explained the better informed the discussion can be.<\/p>\n<p>Clearly the government wants to keep \u2018<a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-elephant-in-the-conference-room\/\" target=\"_blank\">Option J<\/a>\u2019\u2014a submarine sourced from Japan\u2014open, which is why it settled on its \u2018<a href=\"http:\/\/www.minister.defence.gov.au\/2015\/02\/11\/minister-for-defence-transcript-asc-doorstop\/\" target=\"_blank\">competitive evaluation process<\/a>\u2019 to allow for the possibility. Otherwise it would simply run a tender process similar to that for the Collins class for the Europeans to compete. The question then becomes how to weigh the positives and negatives of what are quite different options.<\/p>\n<p>But one of the unfortunate downsides of this debate (in fact most debates) is the tendency to talk down the competition beyond what\u2019s objectively true, thus muddying the waters and detracting from the quality of the discussion. There\u2019s no shortage of criticism of varying quality of Option J out there\u2014in fact it\u2019s hard to find much support. In <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/publications\/the-strategic-dimension-of-option-j-australias-submarine-choice-and-its-security-relations-with-japan\" target=\"_blank\">our new paper released today<\/a>, we take a look at the case for Option J and find that there are indeed some real strategic positives as well as issues of concern.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s take a look at the critic\u2019s concerns. They fall into several distinct categories. The first are \u2018<a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/2014\/05\/28\/japan-australia-submarine-idUSL3N0NY37H20140528\" target=\"_blank\">strategic concerns<\/a>\u2019, with any <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theaustralian.com.au\/opinion\/columnists\/theres-a-big-risk-in-abbotts-plan-to-buy-japanese-subs\/story-e6frg76f-1227224540829\" target=\"_blank\">or all<\/a> of the following:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Australia would be choosing sides in north Asian security and thus would risk being drawn into a future conflict in that region<\/li>\n<li>a submarine deal would be to the detriment of Australia\u2019s important economic and security relationship with China<\/li>\n<li>Australia would effectively helping Japan to \u2018remilitarise\u2019.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>We don\u2019t buy any of those arguments. First, Australia would only find itself trapped into north Asian conflicts if it negotiated a submarine deal especially ineptly. If we get the support arrangements we need in place, Japan\u2019s leverage\u2014even if it decided to use it\u2014would be much reduced.<\/p>\n<p>Second, China has shown no tendency to punish Australia for being a forthright critic of its security policies to date, and it\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/we-dont-have-to-choose-between-the-us-and-china\/\" target=\"_blank\">far from clear that they could effectively punish Australia<\/a> in any case. Finally, Japan\u2019s moves towards a normalised security posture falls well short of a region threatening militarisation.<\/p>\n<p>We think it\u2019s in Australia\u2019s interests for Japan to be more, not less, engaged in regional security. As American power declines in relative terms, having allies and partners around the region that can carry part of the burden of maintaining order will be increasingly important. That\u2019s probably why it\u2019s widely thought that the US is firmly supportive of a possible Australia-Japan submarine deal.<\/p>\n<p>Because of these factors, Option J has positives that simply aren\u2019t there in the same way with France or Germany. Yes, they\u2019re both like-minded liberal democracies, but neither has the proximity, the inclination or the regional capability to make a lot of difference in our part of the world. On the other hand, the Europeans offer a wealth of experience in arms exports, and both have successfully exported submarine designs to be built in foreign yards. After our <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-awds-and-the-auditors-round-two\/\" target=\"_blank\">experience with the AWDs<\/a>, that\u2019s a very strong selling point.<\/p>\n<p>The other broad class of criticism are \u2018industrial and economic concerns\u2019:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>a Japanese submarine would offer much less work in Australian shipyards than a deal with European suppliers<\/li>\n<li>the project management with Japan would be prohibitively difficult given <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-australia-should-build-its-own-submarines-1\/\" target=\"_blank\">cultural factors and their lack of export experience<\/a><\/li>\n<li>the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/submarines-reader-response\/\" target=\"_blank\">opportunity cost to Australia<\/a> of taking the work offshore would be too high.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>We don\u2019t say a lot about that in this paper. (ASPI has commented <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/on-economics-and-submarines\/\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/submarines-the-value-of-option-b\/\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/publications\/how-to-buy-a-submarine-part-2\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a> on these in the past.) But it\u2019s almost certainly right to say that the \u2018Eurosub\u2019 option offers more local work.<\/p>\n<p>Nor can we sensibly evaluate from publicly available information the capability issues that might arise, such as the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/option-j-for-fsm-a-japanese-solution\/\" target=\"_blank\">suitability of the <em>Soryu<\/em>-class for Australian mission<\/a> profiles and the difficulties that might be encountered in modifying the design for the RAN\u2019s use. That requires government\u2014through Defence\u2014to do its due diligence. Of course, that\u2019s also true of any European option.<\/p>\n<p>Our paper shouldn\u2019t be interpreted as an endorsement of Option J. This isn\u2019t an \u2018apples versus apples\u2019 competitive evaluation and the two pathways have qualitatively different strengths. But it\u2019s not right to say that Option J offers little in the way of positives. Apart from anything else, it\u2019d signal a further deepening of the Australia\u2013Japan defence relationship and a further underpinning of the US alliance framework, at a time of shifting major power relations in the Asia-Pacific region.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There\u2019s a lot of talk about submarines again this week thanks to the SubSummit conference in Adelaide. Perhaps not surprisingly given the venue, much of the focus was on the local versus offshore build aspect. &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":19313,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[17,1051,135,976,1104],"class_list":["post-19307","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australia","tag-future-submarine-project","tag-japan","tag-soryu-class","tag-submarine"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Option J\u2014would you like strategic benefits with that? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/option-j-would-you-like-strategic-benefits-with-that\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Option J\u2014would you like strategic benefits with that? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There\u2019s a lot of talk about submarines again this week thanks to the SubSummit conference in Adelaide. 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