{"id":1981,"date":"2012-11-01T05:00:47","date_gmt":"2012-10-31T19:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=1981"},"modified":"2012-11-01T20:17:36","modified_gmt":"2012-11-01T10:17:36","slug":"afghanistan-the-end-game-and-after","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/afghanistan-the-end-game-and-after\/","title":{"rendered":"Afghanistan: the end game and after"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"A<\/a>The Prime Minister\u2019s statement<\/a> to the Parliament yesterday on Australia\u2019s Afghanistan strategy continues to demonstrate planning for a relatively quick ADF exit from Uruzgan province. Any international pretence about nation building in Afghanistan has long been abandoned in favour of a pragmatic acceptance that the situation there is about as good as it is going to get.<\/p>\n

Australia can claim some part of the credit for four positive outcomes in Afghanistan. First, and as PM Gillard said, \u2018today, international terrorism finds no safe haven in Afghanistan\u2019; well yes, for as long as the drones and special forces continue their operations. Second, as long as the US remains engaged, the Taliban won\u2019t be able to take power in Kabul again unless it\u2019s through some politically negotiated and internationally acceptable power-sharing agreement. A third positive is that Afghanistan, and Uruzgan province with it, has its best chance probably since the 1970s to handle its internal security challenges. These aren\u2019t perfect outcomes but Strategist<\/em> readers will understand that pursuing perfection is the enemy of peace. That\u2019s why Gillard and Obama are wise to resist any call to keep going for just one or two more fighting seasons in order to show that counterinsurgency, or counter terrorism (\u2018regular\u2019 or \u2018lite\u2019) strategies can work. They can\u2019t.<\/p>\n

The fourth positive outcome from the Afghanistan conflict is the strengthening of our alliance relationship with the United States. That\u2019s an important gain for Australia. Our willingness to join the serious fight takes us to a different level with the US. True, it raises American expectations of us, but it also underpins why the US is prepared to invest its security credibility in Marine and USAF collaboration in northern Australia and naval operations from Fremantle. The ADF\u2019s future military leadership has also been brought to a higher standard of skill and operational and tactical savvy because of the operation. These outcomes have come at a terrible cost in terms of our casualties as well as those of our ISAF partners and, most particularly, the Afghans. But they are meaningful gains not to be trivialised.<\/p>\n

A returned Obama administration will in all likelihood move faster than currently expected to withdraw the bulk of its forces. That\u2019s the Administration\u2019s view, driven by the White House and National Security Committee, and it won\u2019t be swayed from that line by the combatant commanders. A Romney Administration might take a little more time to settle its approach but won\u2019t change the US trajectory to draw down its forces. Australia will need to make sure its own withdrawal time table isn\u2019t upset by American haste.<\/p>\n

On our transition timing Gillard said:<\/p>\n

When I addressed the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in April, the Government\u2019s view was that, once started, transition in Uruzgan should take twelve to eighteen months and that when transition is complete, the majority of our troops will have returned home. Six months on, and three months into transition, our analysis is that this remains the case.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In effect that means Australia is now on a six to twelve-month time table to transition. Fit that into our own political cycle and I would suggest that the government would prefer six months to twelve.<\/p>\n

After the transition, the Prime Minister says that Australia will stay engaged in Afghanistan with aid and other financial support. There will be military training and the government \u2018is prepared to consider a limited special forces contribution\u2014in the right circumstances and under the right mandate.\u2019 Australia should take a clear-eyed assessment here: the emerging strategic challenges in our own region dictates that our primary focus should come back to the Asia\u2013Pacific. A small ADF training program is appropriate for a transition period in Afghanistan and the Prime Minister should make sure that \u2018limited\u2019 really does mean limited as far as any future special forces commitment is concerned.<\/p>\n

Peter Jennings is executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Image courtesy of Flickr user ISAFmedia<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Prime Minister\u2019s statement to the Parliament yesterday on Australia\u2019s Afghanistan strategy continues to demonstrate planning for a relatively quick ADF exit from Uruzgan province. 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