{"id":2017,"date":"2012-11-02T12:53:39","date_gmt":"2012-11-02T02:53:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=2017"},"modified":"2013-07-08T13:48:58","modified_gmt":"2013-07-08T03:48:58","slug":"rebalancing-or-jockeying-for-position","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rebalancing-or-jockeying-for-position\/","title":{"rendered":"Rebalancing or jockeying for position?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Douglas<\/a>Sometimes an aside illuminates the important underlying drivers of issues. At Wednesday\u2019s ASPI\u2013Hewlett-Packard Defence and Security Lunch<\/a>, retired US Admiral Gary Roughead mused briefly about rebalancing of US forces to the Pacific. Pressed later to elaborate, he suggested the change in focus would have significant ramifications for resource allocations: in other words, who gets the money. What makes this fraught is the increasingly constrained military budget. The conditions are ripe for a turf war between the services.<\/p>\n

Over the past decade the focus has been on land conflict. Sure, there\u2019s been a significant role for precision missiles and air assets have also played a part\u2014particularly in intelligence collection. But everything has been, essentially, devoted to winning the fight on the ground: it\u2019s been an Army-led war. This will change with the withdrawal of ground troops from Afghanistan.<\/p>\n

The title of the US\u2019s new fighting doctrine\u2014Air Sea Battle\u2014offers a clear indication of where the resources will be going. The inability of the Army to achieve unequivocal victory was already apparent when Secretary of Defence Leon Panetta signed-off on this new operational concept in 2011. It was recognition that, even leveraging off America\u2019s overwhelming technical superiority, land forces still hadn\u2019t been able to secure the victory Washington desired.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why the US is instead switching attention to arenas where its technological lead might pay off. The Air Force and Navy will now get the lion\u2019s share of resources. It\u2019s much easier for politicians to keep defence industry lobbies happy by approving new contracts for planes and ships than it is raising extra army units. Secondly (perhaps unfairly) the Army\u2019s credit in Washington isn\u2019t very high at the moment. Nobody blames the soldiers for not being more successful in Afghanistan, but the limitations of \u2018boots on the ground\u2019 are becoming apparent. And the maritime nature of the Pacific theatre further strengthens the hand of the Navy and (to a lesser extent) the Air Force at the expense of the Army.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t expect any loud announcements, but by all accounts there\u2019s a new dynamic at work in Washington. This will shuffle more money to the Navy and Air Force; less to the Army. Interestingly, a similar struggle for resources has begun here in Australia.<\/p>\n

A couple of months ago (and again at an ASPI function), Air Marshal Geoff Brown made a strong pitch<\/a> emphasising the urgency of maintaining a strong air force. He described a recent exercise where the air commander needed to deploy all his assets. There was absolutely nothing in reserve.<\/p>\n

Last week Lieutenant General David Morrison presented the army\u2019s case at a University of Canberra Security Lecture<\/a>. He made an urgent plea for politicians to remember \u2018only the man who occupies ground can proclaim victory\u2019. Brendan Nicholson from the Australian newspaper had somehow got hold of a copy of the speech before delivery. His ensuing front-page article ensured considerable media attention.<\/p>\n

The story was simple: don\u2019t cut funding for the military. Journalists know this is a much better yarn than explaining the intricacies of intra-service fights for resources. But don\u2019t be fooled: that\u2019s what it was all about. The next government, Labor or Liberal, will slash the defence budget. These are attempts to limit the damage to individual services. It also seems likely we\u2019ll receive two White Papers within the next three years. Cynics think their main role will be to provide political \u2018cover\u2019 allowing extra cutbacks to be justified.<\/p>\n

In this environment it\u2019s possible to understand the Chiefs\u2019 recent comments as pleas for their respective services. Nobody doubts their strong commitment to, and belief in, the doctrines they\u2019re articulating. Unfortunately, not everyone can be a winner as resources shrink. It will be interesting to see if appealing over the heads of the politicians and speaking to the electorate is the right strategy. It might backfire.<\/p>\n

Nic Stuart is a columnist with the Canberra Times. Image courtesy of Luke Wilson, ASPI.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sometimes an aside illuminates the important underlying drivers of issues. At Wednesday\u2019s ASPI\u2013Hewlett-Packard Defence and Security Lunch, retired US Admiral Gary Roughead mused briefly about rebalancing of US forces to the Pacific. Pressed later to …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":2034,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[504],"tags":[17,120,31],"class_list":["post-2017","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-alliance","tag-australia","tag-budget","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRebalancing or jockeying for position? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rebalancing-or-jockeying-for-position\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rebalancing or jockeying for position? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sometimes an aside illuminates the important underlying drivers of issues. At Wednesday\u2019s ASPI\u2013Hewlett-Packard Defence and Security Lunch, retired US Admiral Gary Roughead mused briefly about rebalancing of US forces to the Pacific. Pressed later to ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rebalancing-or-jockeying-for-position\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-11-02T02:53:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2013-07-08T03:48:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/ANZUS-lunch-1-1024x494.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"494\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Nic Stuart\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Nic Stuart\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rebalancing-or-jockeying-for-position\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/ANZUS-lunch-1.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/ANZUS-lunch-1.png\",\"width\":1500,\"height\":724,\"caption\":\"Douglas Feith, Gary Roughead and Patrick Cronin. Photo credit: Luke Wilson (ASPI)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rebalancing-or-jockeying-for-position\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rebalancing-or-jockeying-for-position\/\",\"name\":\"Rebalancing or jockeying for position? | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rebalancing-or-jockeying-for-position\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2012-11-02T02:53:39+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2013-07-08T03:48:58+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/0271045a279688a3b03d5587d8f23880\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rebalancing-or-jockeying-for-position\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rebalancing-or-jockeying-for-position\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rebalancing-or-jockeying-for-position\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Rebalancing or jockeying for position?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/0271045a279688a3b03d5587d8f23880\",\"name\":\"Nic Stuart\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a3902e2a4cb8f81f5f24c7e8befdf9ef?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a3902e2a4cb8f81f5f24c7e8befdf9ef?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Nic Stuart\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/nic-stuart\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Rebalancing or jockeying for position? | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rebalancing-or-jockeying-for-position\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Rebalancing or jockeying for position? | The Strategist","og_description":"Sometimes an aside illuminates the important underlying drivers of issues. At Wednesday\u2019s ASPI\u2013Hewlett-Packard Defence and Security Lunch, retired US Admiral Gary Roughead mused briefly about rebalancing of US forces to the Pacific. Pressed later to ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rebalancing-or-jockeying-for-position\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2012-11-02T02:53:39+00:00","article_modified_time":"2013-07-08T03:48:58+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":494,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/ANZUS-lunch-1-1024x494.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"Nic Stuart","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Nic Stuart","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rebalancing-or-jockeying-for-position\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/ANZUS-lunch-1.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/ANZUS-lunch-1.png","width":1500,"height":724,"caption":"Douglas Feith, Gary Roughead and Patrick Cronin. Photo credit: Luke Wilson (ASPI)"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rebalancing-or-jockeying-for-position\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rebalancing-or-jockeying-for-position\/","name":"Rebalancing or jockeying for position? | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rebalancing-or-jockeying-for-position\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2012-11-02T02:53:39+00:00","dateModified":"2013-07-08T03:48:58+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/0271045a279688a3b03d5587d8f23880"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rebalancing-or-jockeying-for-position\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rebalancing-or-jockeying-for-position\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rebalancing-or-jockeying-for-position\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Rebalancing or jockeying for position?"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/0271045a279688a3b03d5587d8f23880","name":"Nic Stuart","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a3902e2a4cb8f81f5f24c7e8befdf9ef?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a3902e2a4cb8f81f5f24c7e8befdf9ef?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Nic Stuart"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/nic-stuart\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2017"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2017"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2017\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7476,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2017\/revisions\/7476"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2034"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2017"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2017"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2017"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}