{"id":20600,"date":"2015-05-25T06:00:01","date_gmt":"2015-05-24T20:00:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=20600"},"modified":"2015-05-22T13:46:01","modified_gmt":"2015-05-22T03:46:01","slug":"tony-abbott-and-a-japanese-sub","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/tony-abbott-and-a-japanese-sub\/","title":{"rendered":"Tony Abbott and a Japanese sub"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"8151000847_5982d583c4_z\"<\/a><\/figure>\n

Tony Abbott wants a Japanese submarine.<\/p>\n

To repeat: Australia’s Prime Minister really wants a Japanese boat.<\/p>\n

If Australia hadn\u2019t embarked on a \u2018competitive evaluation process\u2019 pitting Japan against France and Germany, this hack would argue that the PM is committed to the Japanese sub.<\/p>\n

Politicians ultimately make the big procurement decisions in this town. And Canberra\u2019s top politician has profoundly shifted the terms of the submarine discussion.<\/p>\n

The uncomfortable yet sturdy bipartisan consensus on building Oz submarines that has ruled since the 1980s has been torpedoed by Abbott. This is quite an achievement for a Prime Minister who is having trouble making his wishes stick in most areas.<\/p>\n

See how far Abbott has pushed the submarine decision towards Japan by considering what Australia’s submarine choice would look like today if the Coalition hadn\u2019t won the 2013 election. In this parallel universe, Kevin Rudd uses the Men in Black<\/em> memory eraser \u2018neuralyzer\u2019 on the Oz voters so they forget the previous six years. Then, Kevin runs a blinder of a campaign utilising every advantage of being incumbent PM and just scrapes home.<\/p>\n

The resurrected Rudd government would be steering the submarine course set out in Labor’s 2009 and 2013 Defence White Papers. Japan wouldn\u2019t have surfaced. There’d be no Option J<\/a>. No Japanese submarine in the running. Repeat, no Japanese submarine even in the field. Much less the PM’s favourite.<\/p>\n

Tony Abbott has shifted the game by embracing Shinzo Abe and making a Japanese sub a centrepiece of that relationship.<\/p>\n

Ironically, the deep political damage Abbott has suffered at the hands of his own party might just strengthen his hold on defence and this biggest of big acquisition projects.<\/p>\n

Abbott is a much reduced leader after the near-disaster in the Liberal Party room in February. The PM scrambled to survive a Party revolt and a leadership spill when he faced no formal challenger. In the caucus contest against an empty chair, Abbott just defeated the empty chair. Abbott has to rebuild his authority as much as he has to rebuild his government.<\/p>\n

Defence, however, is a rare area where the PM can still have his way. Abbott, like John Howard, is his own Uber Defence Minister. The Liberal Party is used to this as the default setting. And in December the Uber Minister installed a new Defence Minister. Kevin Andrews mightn\u2019t be as avid for a Japanese sub as his predecessor David Johnston, but the Uber Minister still rules. After taking\u00a0early hits<\/a> struggling to explain the \u2018competitive evaluation process\u2019, Andrews now has a submarine narrative<\/a> that he can at least speak to, and even argue for.<\/p>\n

The key line for Adelaide from Andrews: \u2018Maintenance can occur in Australia, even if there is an overseas build.\u2019<\/p>\n

Arriving at an overseas build via Adelaide brings us to the fracturing of the submarine consensus that has bound Labor and Liberal together since the Hawke government and Kim Beazley\u2019s term as Defence Minister. That bipartisan policy is lost at sea. The Japanese boat is as much symptom as cause. The submarine consensus has been deeply wounded by the Collins headaches and tormented by technical demands at the edge of Australian capabilities. Then there\u2019s the huge fright of that $50 billion price tag.<\/p>\n

When Labor\u2019s 2013 Defence White Paper embraced Adelaide again as the site to build the Oz sub, taking the off-the-shelf option off the table, the Liberal Party promptly agreed<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The submarine consensus still ruled and held through the election. The old defence pattern seemed to be holding: Coalition governments set up the aircraft purchases from America while Labor governments did the submarine announcements. Mark that era over.<\/p>\n

While Andrew Davies and Benjamin Schreer\u00a0are sanguine that Option J can be made to work<\/a>, others think Abbott is taking a gamble.<\/p>\n

On the Option J as just-too-risky side, note a rare moment of agreement between Hugh White<\/a>\u00a0and Greg Sheridan<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Greg\u2019s views of Abbott are always worth reading, not least because the two have been mates since university. And in giving the thumbs down to the Japanese sub as too big a call, Greg seemed to be penning a warning to a PM who has already made up his mind:<\/p>\n

\u2018I am now coming, reluctantly, to the view this option just presents too much risk, financially, politically and militarily. I don\u2019t think Abbott can secure Japanese subs through good process. \u00adImpatience with process is one of Abbott\u2019s weaknesses.\u2019<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Indeed. Did I mention that Tony Abbott really wants a Japanese submarine?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tony Abbott wants a Japanese submarine. To repeat: Australia’s Prime Minister really wants a Japanese boat. 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