{"id":21105,"date":"2015-06-19T12:30:13","date_gmt":"2015-06-19T02:30:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=21105"},"modified":"2015-06-19T14:28:35","modified_gmt":"2015-06-19T04:28:35","slug":"no-taxation-without-representation-with-chinese-characteristics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/no-taxation-without-representation-with-chinese-characteristics\/","title":{"rendered":"No taxation without representation, with Chinese characteristics"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/a><\/p>\n If you thought the Australian budget was a difficult beast to wrangle, you won\u2019t envy the Chinese government\u2019s predicament.<\/p>\n Deutsche Bank predicted<\/a> earlier this year that Chinese central government revenue will grow by a mere 1% in 2015\u2014the lowest rate since 1981. Local government revenue is also forecast to fall by 2%\u2014the first contraction since 1994.<\/p>\n Figures released<\/a> by China\u2019s Ministry of Finance for January to May 2015 show income rising 5% across all levels of government compared to 2014. However, if revenue from government \u2018funds\u2019 is considered, which is largely based on revenue from land sales, then total income fell nearly 6% compared to the same period in 2014.<\/p>\n Chinese Premier Li Keqiang\u2019s announcement in March of a 2.3% fiscal deficit target for 2015\u2014a target increased<\/a> in early May to 2.7%\u2014might not sound particularly worrying, but this number hides a worsening situation. The Chinese central government raises just under half of the country\u2019s government revenue, but the provinces spend<\/a> 85% of it.<\/p>\n Not a single province reported a budget surplus in 2014 despite Chinese law until recently<\/a> ostensibly forbidding local governments from borrowing money. Local governments use creative financial arrangements to hide revenue shortfalls, making it difficult to determine the extent of their debts. However, Wei Yao from Societe Generale <\/em>estimated<\/a> earlier this year that local government could have debts of nearly US$5 trillion. This would put China\u2019s local government debts at nearly 50% of GDP.<\/p>\n This is all in the context of the Chinese government having increasing demands on expenditure going forward. The population is ageing, health and social welfare costs are rising, and modernising the Chinese military and funding China\u2019s foreign policy is not cheap. More fiscal stimulus to counter falling growth rates appears to be in the offing<\/a>.<\/p>\n One way to counter this bleak picture would be to raise revenue brought in by income taxes.<\/p>\n Individual income tax makes up only 5% of government revenue according<\/a> to the National Bureau of Statistics of China in their 2014 China Statistical Yearbook<\/em>. That 5% compares to an average among OECD countries of 25% in 2012, rising as high as nearly 40% for both the US and Australia.<\/p>\n The Chinese government does indirectly tax<\/a> citizens by artificially keeping interest rates low and savings rates high. This effectively uses the Chinese people\u2019s savings to subsidise state-owned banks and help fund state-owned enterprises and local governments. However, this policy, known as \u2018financial repression\u2019, is being reversed<\/a> as the Chinese government tries to encourage consumer spending and reform the financial sector.<\/p>\n