{"id":21675,"date":"2015-07-21T06:00:38","date_gmt":"2015-07-20T20:00:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=21675"},"modified":"2015-07-21T09:20:26","modified_gmt":"2015-07-20T23:20:26","slug":"sea-1000-the-wrong-way-to-boost-strategic-ties-with-tokyo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/sea-1000-the-wrong-way-to-boost-strategic-ties-with-tokyo\/","title":{"rendered":"SEA 1000: the wrong way to boost strategic ties with Tokyo"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Tokyo\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Two weeks ago, Senator Nick Xenophon travelled to Japan to meet with executives from Mitsubishi and Kawasaki, and key Government officials to politely warn them to not rely on the Australian PM\u2019s \u2018nod and a wink\u2019 as a key to winning the SEA 1000 competition.<\/p>\n

With high-stakes South Australian politics in play, he respectfully suggested that they need to come up with the best possible local build package to compete with their French and German counterparts, and that failure to do so may be fatal to any submarine project involvement they were chasing.<\/p>\n

The Japanese responded positively and genuinely, giving cause for the Senator to announce that \u2018the Japanese are ready and able to build here<\/a>\u2019. This has left the French and Germans, both experienced exporters of submarines, sharpening their pencils.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t we all just love a good competition?<\/p>\n

Later this year Defence will be called upon to examine the competitive evaluation process (CEP) responses. They will then select a \u2018preliminary winner\u2019 on the basis of each contender\u2019s submarine capability, accompanying package (including industrial), \u00a0restrictions (e.g. intellectual property) and price, regarding the commercial and technical risk associated with the offerings.<\/p>\n

But it may all be in vain.<\/p>\n

Senate Estimate questioning<\/a> (video) has revealed that once the CEP has concluded, outside the purview of the government-appointed Expert Advisory Panel appointed to oversee the process, strategic considerations will then be applied on top of Defence\u2019s analysis and a \u2018final winner\u2019 will be selected. So, the \u2018winner\u2019 of the CEP may not be the \u2018winner\u2019 of the SEA 1000 design and build prize.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s considerable suspicion<\/a> that Option J will be selected as the \u2018final winner\u2019 based on the need for a fillip to the de facto Australian\u2013Japanese alliance.<\/p>\n

This would be a mistake.<\/p>\n

Why? Because a Mount Fuji-sized project is simply the wrong project to use for this.<\/p>\n

If a strategic pick on a $20 billion submarine build applies, and a higher level of assessed risk goes on to be realised, the extra cost to Australia in dollars and schedule slip could be substantial. Noting that submarines are a critical Navy asset, its impact on the ADF would be significant and any such setback may also ultimately harm the very relationship it intends to foster.<\/p>\n

It would make more sense to pick a less critical, less complex, and less costly program to undertake some strategic bonding with Japan; something more eminently doable and where the realised risk might amount to a few tens of millions, not several billion\u2014and doesn’t have the potential downside of a critical capability gap. Given that both Australia and Japan are US allies and have shared interests in helping to support American power in the region, perhaps it would be better to select a project which could enhance interoperability between the trio\u2019s armed forces.<\/p>\n

A more suitable project might be a central Australian F-35 test range to examine joint strike fighter capabilities such as ECM, ECCM, weapons and, indeed, \u2018interoperability\u2019; in contrast to the skies over Japan, with its high population density and where prying eyes are certainly more prominent.<\/p>\n

Such an approach would likely be welcomed by the Japanese. They\u2019re honourable people that take pride in \u2018doing as they say\u2019. Just five months after the 1995 Great Hanshin Earthquake flattened Kobe, KHI launched the submarine Asashio<\/em> on time. While they are clearly capable at complex project management, they concede that they\u2019re nascent in the area of Defence exports. They are also acutely aware that the CEP is perhaps moving a little too fast for comfort.<\/p>\n

Now, that\u2019s not to say that the Japanese can\u2019t, won\u2019t and shouldn\u2019t win the CEP; it\u2019s just that they shouldn\u2019t be selected on the basis of a \u2018Captain\u2019s pick\u2019. If the Japanese are to win the SEA 1000 prize, it must be done on the merits of their proposal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Two weeks ago, Senator Nick Xenophon travelled to Japan to meet with executives from Mitsubishi and Kawasaki, and key Government officials to politely warn them to not rely on the Australian PM\u2019s \u2018nod and a …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":385,"featured_media":21677,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[44,1051,135,1213,304],"class_list":["post-21675","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australian-defence-force","tag-future-submarine-project","tag-japan","tag-option-j","tag-royal-australian-navy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSEA 1000: the wrong way to boost strategic ties with Tokyo | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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