{"id":21777,"date":"2015-07-29T06:00:16","date_gmt":"2015-07-28T20:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=21777"},"modified":"2015-07-29T12:28:06","modified_gmt":"2015-07-29T02:28:06","slug":"china-india-and-water-across-the-himalayas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/china-india-and-water-across-the-himalayas\/","title":{"rendered":"China, India and water across the Himalayas"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Brahmaputra<\/a><\/figure>\n

While everyone\u2019s anxiously watching and analysing the events unravelling in the South China Sea, there\u2019s another resource conflict involving China that also deserves attention. In the Himalayas, China and India are competing for valuable hydropower and water resources on the Yarlung Tsangpo\u2013Brahmaputra River. The dispute offers some important lessons for regional cooperation (on more than just water), and highlights what\u2019s at stake if China and India mismanage their resource conflict.<\/p>\n

The Yarlung Tsangpo\u2013Brahmaputra River is a 2,880km transboundary river that originates in Tibet, China as the Yarlung Tsangpo, before flowing through northeast India as the Brahmaputra River and Bangladesh as the Jamuna River.<\/p>\n

The resource conflict began on 11 June 2000, after a natural dam-burst in Tibet caused a flash flood that resulted in 30 deaths and serious damage to infrastructure in the northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh. Some Indian government officials<\/a> believed the flood was intentionally caused by China, even suggesting China would weaponise or interrupt water supply to leverage over India. The issue dominated reporting on China, but later subsided after satellite imagery confirmed the natural dam. Later in 2002, China and India signed their first Memorandum of Understanding for the provision of hydrological information during the monsoon months, previously discontinued after their 1962 border war.<\/p>\n

The issue gained serious traction in 2008, when the Chinese government announced plans to begin construction of the Zangmu hydroelectricity dam. Located on the middle reaches of the Yarlung\u2013Tsangpo River, the dam was perceived by many Indian observers as the beginning of a major river diversion project that would dry up the Brahmaputra River. Speculation and suspicion were further stoked by Chinese refusal to divulge information deemed \u2018internal matters\u2019 and conflicting information released by government officials. Indian fears drove some commentators\u00ad\u2014led by Brahma Chellaney\u2014to warn of a coming water war<\/a> over the river; suggesting a river diversion would be tantamount to a declaration of war. The contentious issue soon sparked concern in the Indian Parliament, and became a priority<\/a> in high-level bilateral exchanges with China. In its exchanges, India sought reassurances and pushed<\/a> for more extensive water data sharing practices (negotiating an extra 15 days of data).<\/p>\n

The crux of the resource competition thus relates to mass dam building and diversion plans. With the Yarlung Tsangpo representing 79 gigawatts of hydropower potential (more than enough to power<\/a> NSW, ACT and South Australia combined), China is planning the construction of 20 hydroelectricity dams along the river<\/a>. In addition to these dams, China is also considering a potential Grand Western Water diversion plan (redirecting water to the dry north). India fears upstream China will \u2018turn off the tap\u2019 that makes up 30% of its water resource<\/a>. However, despite calls for greater transparency and consultation, India is also racing to construct hydropower dams on the Brahmaputra River. While India\u2019s dam building drive is primarily motivated by a desire to take advantage of the river\u2019s hydropower potential<\/a>, the dams also help to consolidate India\u2019s territorial claim on the contested border state of Arunachal Pradesh (known as \u2018South Tibet\u2019 in China).<\/p>\n

Despite Indian alarm, there\u2019s little reason to fear a water war. Numerous facts indicate Chinese activities won\u2019t impact river flow. For example, Chinese dams have been confirmed as run-of-the-river\u2014they don\u2019t store water). China has also dismissed plans of river diversion due to high economic costs and environmental risks. On top of this, Chinese leaders<\/a> have reiterated that they don\u2019t want to antagonise their closest neighbours. Perhaps the most convincing rebuke of the water war myth is the scientific evidence that shows China has limited control of India\u2019s water. Contrary to popular belief in India, up to 70% of the Brahmaputra\u2019s water resource<\/a> comes from rainfall collected in India.<\/p>\n

Although a water war is unlikely, Sino-Indian water security issue warrants further consideration for three key reasons. First, the dispute highlights that phantom problems<\/a> risk the escalation of conflict causing unnecessary distractions. Second, the dispute has wider implications for regional resource management and security. And third, shared resources like water present less politically-loaded opportunities for greater cooperation.<\/p>\n

First, much of India\u2019s alarm was unwarranted. The information vacuum created by the Chinese Government\u2019s refusal to divulge details of \u2018internal matters<\/a>‘\u00a0combined with inconsistent messaging gave rise to worst-case scenario speculation and fear in India. The dispute revealed the importance of transparency for guiding an informed conversation, not defined by historical biases. The incident showed that transparency can save time that would be otherwise wasted on reassurance and crisis management. China and India could devote efforts to developing goodwill and relations needed to establish joint scientific research projects in the Himalayan region, and more extensive water-data and information sharing norms.<\/p>\n

Second, how India and China manage their domestic water and energy shortages has wider implications for the economic, environmental and social stability of the world\u2019s two most populous countries. The dispute will test the strength and maturity of China and India, by requiring them to look past their strained history and the nationalist sentiments associated with it. Their response will set a precedent for cooperation in other areas of the Sino-Indian relationship, as well as transboundary resource management more broadly.<\/p>\n

Finally, while a lot of mistrust exists between China and India\u2014not least from its 1962 border war<\/a> and its unresolved border dispute\u2014cooperation in water data-sharing, dam building planning and joint scientific research projects offer less politically charged opportunities where deeper people-to-people relationships can be created. Such initiatives would not only improve the two countries\u2019 perceptions of each other, but also help to develop a common language and understanding of the regional resource and environmental challenges.<\/p>\n

India and China\u2019s contested land border and the associated political sensitivities remain a serious barrier to bilateral cooperation on regional issues. However in the area of transboundary water data sharing, China is showing an increasing willingness to seriously consider and reassure the concerns of downstream countries. While this is promising, uncertainty about China\u2019s commitment to regional cooperation persists, particularly because China\u2019s willingness to talk about transboundary water issues remains subject to the political climate and is often used as a political tool for negotiation.<\/p>\n

The water dispute combines domestic issues of resource scarcity and economic security with complex international relations challenges of transboundary resource management and bilateral Sino\u2013Indian relations. How these issues intersect will be important for the region and its future. The water dispute comes at an interesting time where China and India\u2019s relationship is developing within a shifting regional power dynamic. It\u2019s certainly worth watching.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

While everyone\u2019s anxiously watching and analysing the events unravelling in the South China Sea, there\u2019s another resource conflict involving China that also deserves attention. In the Himalayas, China and India are competing for valuable hydropower …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":308,"featured_media":21780,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,69,74,282],"class_list":["post-21777","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-india","tag-resources","tag-water"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChina, India and water across the Himalayas | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/china-india-and-water-across-the-himalayas\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China, India and water across the Himalayas | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"While everyone\u2019s anxiously watching and analysing the events unravelling in the South China Sea, there\u2019s another resource conflict involving China that also deserves attention. 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