{"id":22055,"date":"2015-08-17T15:00:57","date_gmt":"2015-08-17T05:00:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=22055"},"modified":"2015-08-17T15:34:58","modified_gmt":"2015-08-17T05:34:58","slug":"defence-white-paper-faqs-the-enduring-relevance-of-submarines-part-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/defence-white-paper-faqs-the-enduring-relevance-of-submarines-part-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Defence White Paper FAQs: the enduring relevance of submarines (part 1)"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"USS<\/a><\/p>\n

As a member of the Defence Minister’s White Paper panel, I\u2019ve had many discussions about issues that paper will wrestle with (and a few that it certainly won\u2019t, but that\u2019s a post for another time). With the obvious disclaimer that I\u2019m not about to divulge any white paper content, I thought it was worth addressing some of the questions that have come up repeatedly.<\/p>\n

Naturally, questions about the future submarine are near the top of the list. Many topics are predictable enough. Where will they be built? How many do we need?<\/p>\n

I\u2019m surprised at how often I\u2019ve been asked whether we\u2019re wasting our money because submarines are about to become pass\u00e9. That question is based on one of two premises: that the oceans are about to become \u2018transparent\u2019 due to new detection technologies, or that submarines will be replaced by unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs).<\/p>\n

Both propositions have a reasonable pedigree, and neither can be dismissed out of hand. And both technologies will have a significant impact on the future conduct of submarine operations. But when examined closely, they actually point towards an increased<\/em> relevance for submarines.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s start with the detection issue. The attribute that most contributes to the effectiveness of submarines is their stealth. An adversary faces significant uncertainty even with just the possibility of a submarine being present. A great deal of effort has to be put into anti-submarine warfare to have even a reasonable chance of nullifying their effect. Having a capable submarine somewhere<\/em> in a theatre of maritime operations complicates planning everywhere<\/em>\u2014or at least within a large circle of possible locations that grows steadily with time.<\/p>\n

The ability to quickly and reliably find submarines would certainly change their cost benefit calculus, and the notion of making the ocean \u2018transparent\u2019 isn\u2019t a new one. The Cold War USN put a great deal of effort into being able to track Soviet nuclear missile-carrying boats, building an array of networked underwater sensors under the Long Range Acoustic Propagation Project<\/a>. Their effort met with considerable success and the USN often had a pretty good hold on Soviet submarine movements.<\/p>\n

But there are two important caveats. First, those were earlier generation nuclear submarines which were noisier than their current counterparts. Second, even when Soviet submarines were detected, precise localisation wasn\u2019t always possible. The arrays were heavily supplemented by other techniques, not least of which was the \u2018tailing\u2019 of Soviet boats by American submarines. (See the ‘ripping yarn’ bestseller Blind Man\u2019s Bluff<\/a><\/em> for a popular account). In fact, when the arrays picked up the sounds of the destruction of its own USS Scorpion<\/a>, the USN still took four months to locate the wreckage. The simple fact is that reliable localisation of sound sources in large ocean basins is a formidably difficult task that gets progressively harder as the difference between the source and background noise gets smaller\u2014as is the case with modern submarines.<\/p>\n

Of course, detection technologies and the ability to analyse collected data have also improved. I wrote about the effect of Moore\u2019s Law on submarine detectability here<\/a>, and it\u2019s true that future submarines will face challenges in remaining hidden. They\u2019ll also have to worry about techniques other than acoustics, such as wake detection, thermal signatures or even the light given off by sea creatures disturbed by their passage. Given enough data and enough signal processing power, even very subtle signs could be giveaways\u2014potentially even from orbit<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, the real world is a noisy and untidy place. Covering very wide areas with sufficiently sensitive sensors with high bandwidth to link them together and having the ability to respond quickly and effectively to a detection\u2014especially given a likely high \u2018false positive\u2019 rate\u2014will be beyond even the best resourced forces. Much more likely is that high performance ASW capabilities will be concentrated on key focal areas, such as around task groups, near naval bases, and chokepoints such as critical sea lanes through straits and narrows. The old model of submarines getting \u2018up close and personal\u2019 in their adversary\u2019s strongholds probably doesn\u2019t have much future.<\/p>\n

But in terms of avoiding detection, being under the water will always be preferable to being on top of it. And if the submarine can carry out its mission from a reasonable distance, there\u2019ll still be ocean enough to hide in. To remain viable, future submarines will have to be even more stealthy. They will need be able to stand off and deploy medium to long range sensors and weapons\u2014in a sense perhaps becoming \u2018underwater motherships<\/a>\u2019 for sensor and weapon packages. In fact, as life gets harder on the surface, that ability will become more relevant, not less.<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s a neat segue to UUVs. In the next post I\u2019ll discuss their strengths and weaknesses and explain how the complementary package of manned submarine and unmanned subsystems could come together to help defeat improved sensors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As a member of the Defence Minister’s White Paper panel, I\u2019ve had many discussions about issues that paper will wrestle with (and a few that it certainly won\u2019t, but that\u2019s a post for another time). …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":22057,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[44,1177,1203,1377,579,1418],"class_list":["post-22055","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australian-defence-force","tag-asc","tag-sea-1000","tag-sea-5000","tag-shipbuilding","tag-uuvs"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDefence White Paper FAQs: the enduring relevance of submarines (part 1) | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/defence-white-paper-faqs-the-enduring-relevance-of-submarines-part-1\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Defence White Paper FAQs: the enduring relevance of submarines (part 1) | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As a member of the Defence Minister’s White Paper panel, I\u2019ve had many discussions about issues that paper will wrestle with (and a few that it certainly won\u2019t, but that\u2019s a post for another time). ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/defence-white-paper-faqs-the-enduring-relevance-of-submarines-part-1\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-08-17T05:00:57+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2015-08-17T05:34:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/5892937848_fcc1af0969_z.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"427\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Andrew Davies\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Andrew Davies\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/defence-white-paper-faqs-the-enduring-relevance-of-submarines-part-1\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/5892937848_fcc1af0969_z.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/5892937848_fcc1af0969_z.jpg\",\"width\":640,\"height\":427,\"caption\":\"USS Missouri - 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