{"id":22166,"date":"2015-08-24T15:20:51","date_gmt":"2015-08-24T05:20:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=22166"},"modified":"2015-08-24T14:56:09","modified_gmt":"2015-08-24T04:56:09","slug":"towards-a-more-robust-anzus-alliance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/towards-a-more-robust-anzus-alliance\/","title":{"rendered":"Towards a more robust ANZUS alliance"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hires_090413-N-0120A-251.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-22167 size-full\" title=\"A U.S. Navy CH-53E Sea Stallion helicopter, assigned to the Air Combat Element of the U.S. Marine Corps 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, lands on the flight deck of the forward deployed amphibious assault ship USS Essex (LHD 2) in the South China Sea on April 13, 2009.\" src=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hires_090413-N-0120A-251.jpg\" alt=\"A U.S. Navy CH-53E Sea Stallion helicopter, assigned to the Air Combat Element of the U.S. Marine Corps 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, lands on the flight deck of the forward deployed amphibious assault ship USS Essex (LHD 2) in the South China Sea on April 13, 2009.\" width=\"800\" height=\"571\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hires_090413-N-0120A-251.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hires_090413-N-0120A-251-205x146.jpg 205w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s important to consider steps to make the ANZUS alliance more robust to weather the challenges brought about by the rise of China. Our contributions to US-led operations in the Middle East and Afghanistan weren&#8217;t trivial for the Australian Defence Force (ADF) in operational terms, but they were far less consequential in strategic terms for two main reasons. First, Afghanistan and Iraq were \u2018wars of choice\u2019 as there was no existential danger posed to Australia, so we could continuously adjust our political and operational objectives in order to declare a relative \u2018victory\u2019 to our domestic audiences. Second, even if Australia had decided not to support its US ally in these campaigns it wouldn&#8217;t have caused irreparable damage to the Alliance. Washington wouldn&#8217;t have liked it, but US policy-makers would&#8217;ve seen the continued value of ANZUS for US interests in the Asia\u2013Pacific.<\/p>\n<p>However, the strategic challenge of China to the Asia\u2013Pacific security order significantly raises the stakes for the Alliance. As <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-case-for-a-new-australian-grand-strategy\/\" target=\"_blank\">Ross Babbage<\/a> points out, whether Australia likes it or not, \u2018we now find ourselves close to the centre-stage of major power competition, international tensions and potential conflict.\u2019 Not surprisingly, the debate has focused on the big strategic question of whether Australia might one day have to \u2018choose\u2019 between its US ally and its major trading partner China. The standard response by many politicians and analysts to Hugh White\u2019s work on the \u2018<a href=\"http:\/\/www.blackincbooks.com\/books\/china-choice-1\" target=\"_blank\">China Choice\u2019<\/a> has been that there\u2019s no binary choice to make. Yet, Hugh didn\u2019t really make an argument about a simple, binary choice. Instead, his main point was that because of the enormous consequences of a potential war with China, the US and Australia would be hard pressed to agree on the circumstances under which to resist a Chinese challenge to the regional security order.<\/p>\n<p>But if one doesn\u2019t agree with Hugh\u2019s central recommendation, that the US and China should \u2018share power\u2019 in the Western Pacific\u2014whatever that means\u2014then making ANZUS more institutionally robust and operationally effective becomes imperative. The simple truth is that one of the main contemporary functions of ANZUS in 21st century Asia is to deter Chinese adventurism and, if necessary, to fight it\u2014with enormous consequences for all involved. How well is ANZUS prepared for this challenge? A common view is that the \u2018institutional and ideational foundations of the United States\u2013Australia alliance are deep and enduring\u2019, a point made in the recent <a href=\"http:\/\/ips.cap.anu.edu.au\/sites\/default\/files\/COG%20%2323%20Web.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">ANU\/CSIS alliance report<\/a>, which also highlights the close military links between the two allies, noting that \u2018Australia currently has hundreds of ADF personnel on exchange or embedded into the US military\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s true as far as it goes, but ANZUS\u2019 current level of political and military institutionalisation could well be insufficient to meet the \u2018China challenge\u2019. Because of the enormous stakes involved, the political\u2013strategic and military\u2013operational demands for the Alliance are certain to grow significantly. But contrary to widespread reassurance, ANZUS is far less institutionalised politically than is often assumed. To be sure, the annual Australia\u2013US Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) is important for leadership exchange at the highest levels. Embedding officials in relevant departments of both countries also helps to promote common understanding about the key issues facing the Alliance.<\/p>\n<p>However, the \u2018China challenge\u2019 demands a more institutionalised structure comprising senior political, diplomatic and military leaders from both sides, meeting on a more regular basis to discuss fundamental questions about future Alliance decision-making on China. That includes issues such as a mutual understanding about the \u2018red lines\u2019 for Chinese behaviour; continuous political and operational assessments of Chinese intentions, actions and capabilities; concrete political and military contingency planning involving China scenarios; and coordination of diplomatic responses, including the military, to Chinese activities in the Western Pacific. As well, the Alliance might consider communicating its primary tasks and capabilities more openly to other nations and organisations. For instance, it could formulate an \u2018ANZUS Strategic Concept\u2019, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nato.int\/cps\/en\/natohq\/topics_56626.htm\" target=\"_blank\">akin to the NATO alliance&#8217;s strategy<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Such steps require a change in Australia\u2019s preference for more flexible, ad-hoc arrangements with regards to the Alliance. That was fine when there was no serious challenge to the US, but maintaining the credibility and capability of the ANZUS alliance in the emerging Asia\u2013Pacific security environment will be far more challenging. If Australia wants to uphold the Alliance as a centrepiece of its strategic and defence policy, strengthening its institutional resilience will be a key task.<\/p>\n<p>This includes the level of military cooperation. There\u2019s already a high degree of technological interoperability between the ADF and US forces, as well as a long history of joint military operations. And embedding senior ADF officers at US Pacific Command has helped to facilitate a common understanding about the strategic\u2013operational challenges facing the Alliance in the theatre. But those small peacetime steps mightn&#8217;t be adequate in a real China contingency. In that sense, the recommendations by a <a href=\"http:\/\/csis.org\/publication\/advancing-us-australian-combined-amphibious-capabilities\" target=\"_blank\">CSIS report<\/a> to establish a fully-integrated, combined US\u2013Australia amphibious capability are a step in the right direction. So too is the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-case-for-a-new-australian-grand-strategy\/\" target=\"_blank\">idea<\/a> of forming a \u2018small, high-quality Australia\u2013US Strategic Planning Group\u2019. Hopefully we&#8217;ll never need to use the alliance in an existential war, but if we do we don&#8217;t want to come up short.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s important to consider steps to make the ANZUS alliance more robust to weather the challenges brought about by the rise of China. Our contributions to US-led operations in the Middle East and Afghanistan weren&#8217;t &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":22167,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[131,143,142,471],"class_list":["post-22166","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-anzus","tag-asia-pacific","tag-regional-security","tag-south-china-sea"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Towards a more robust ANZUS alliance | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/towards-a-more-robust-anzus-alliance\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Towards a more robust ANZUS alliance | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It\u2019s important to consider steps to make the ANZUS alliance more robust to weather the challenges brought about by the rise of China. Our contributions to US-led operations in the Middle East and Afghanistan weren&#8217;t ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/towards-a-more-robust-anzus-alliance\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-08-24T05:20:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2015-08-24T04:56:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hires_090413-N-0120A-251.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"571\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Benjamin Schreer\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta 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