{"id":22389,"date":"2015-09-09T15:00:10","date_gmt":"2015-09-09T05:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=22389"},"modified":"2015-09-07T13:33:38","modified_gmt":"2015-09-07T03:33:38","slug":"the-future-of-maritime-conflict-a-response-to-hugh-white","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-future-of-maritime-conflict-a-response-to-hugh-white\/","title":{"rendered":"The future of maritime conflict\u2014a response to Hugh White"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Battleships\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Hugh White\u2019s equally \u2018spirited\u2019 response<\/a> to my critique<\/a> raises several questions in my mind. Unsurprisingly, I differ with him on several points. I accept\u2014and have said elsewhere\u2014that, unlike on land, the defence has no inherent advantage over the offence.<\/p>\n

But, Hugh\u2019s point that \u2018the defence must succeed all the time\u2019 is over-stated. It may be true enough in revolutionary and insurgency theory, but, in the context that we\u2019re discussing, what the defence needs to do is succeed enough to achieve the aim required. As Hugh has recognised, there may be a price to be paid, but there always has been a price and, in war, there always will be. What we have to be sure is that the end justifies the means.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, while any defence force has to manage a tension between the need for current readiness and investment in the future, it also has to manage a tension between specialisation and flexibility. The difficulty with specialisation along the capability lines proposed by Hugh over many years is that it\u2019s an invitation to an asymmetric response. For example, I don\u2019t disagree with the need for better fuel stockpiling on a national level, but I think that such stockpiling to support denial operations reflects the sort of makeshift solution required when one has been side-stepped by the adversary. How long can one continue either operationally or nationally before the stockpiles are exhausted?<\/p>\n

I think that the problem with Hugh\u2019s decrying the ability to conduct sea control would be made clearer if we substitute \u2018sea transport\u2019 for \u2018sea control\u2019. Do we really think that in a future conflict, sea transport won\u2019t be required for both operational purposes and national ones?<\/p>\n

There\u2019s also a fundamental issue of the approach to discussing these problems. Implicit in some of Hugh White\u2019s commentary\u2014and the recent contribution<\/a> by Nic Stuart\u2014is that senior military personnel (including retired naval officers) tend to be caught in the past and take an inherently conservative approach to technological innovation. This is true in part, but it would be much more accurate to describe their outlook as one of hedging. It\u2019s a truism that revolutions in military affairs occur when doctrine changes, not when technology is introduced. The reason for this is that doctrine can\u2019t change until the technology is made to work and work reliably. This generally takes time.<\/p>\n

Experienced military personnel know from their experience that what can go wrong, does go wrong. No battle plan survives contact with the enemy and everything done is subject to what Clausewitz describes as \u2018friction\u2019, when what\u2019s important to do seems simple, but the very simple becomes very hard to achieve. Ironically, given the parallels to the realities of fighting elections, there\u2019s often a sympathy between experienced politicians and the experienced military when contemplating difficult decisions in dealing with an adversary.<\/p>\n

As a historian, as well as a former naval officer, I also often wish that navies\u2014and others\u2014understood history better, and cited historical examples more carefully, because the progress of technological change has never been as straightforward as myth would have it. Personally, I blame the invention of science fiction, which preceded the heavier-than-air flying machine, but generated a popular tendency to confuse the potential a new technology may offer with the reality achieved.<\/p>\n

Nic Stuart mentioned the lack of understanding of the future of aircraft carriers in pre-war navies, but the case is much more complex than this. By 1938 the Americans, Japanese and British were all spending more on their naval air arms than their battle squadrons, while the Americans in particular had developed their aviation warfare doctrine for the Pacific campaign to the point where Admiral Nimitz was able to claim after 1945 that the only surprise had been the kamikaze suicide aircraft. The British, stymied by lack of funding, strategic over-commitment, technological lag, and bad whole-of-government organisation, make a fascinating case study\u2014interesting as much for what they got right as wrong.<\/p>\n

My ideas about a future conflict in which networks will be attacked could well be wrong. But I do think that I\u2019m right in saying that local systems of systems which can generate their own three dimensional picture of the battle space from their own resources\u2014onboard and offboard\u2014will prove survivable. Not always, but perhaps enough. This is a key reason why I find the potential to deploy multiple unmanned vehicles under, on and over the sea as being so important.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hugh White\u2019s equally \u2018spirited\u2019 response to my critique raises several questions in my mind. Unsurprisingly, I differ with him on several points. I accept\u2014and have said elsewhere\u2014that, unlike on land, the defence has no inherent …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":76,"featured_media":22390,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[304,1008,579,710,764],"class_list":["post-22389","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-royal-australian-navy","tag-sea-control","tag-shipbuilding","tag-uncrewed-systems","tag-uncrewed-underwater-vehicles"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe future of maritime conflict\u2014a response to Hugh White | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-future-of-maritime-conflict-a-response-to-hugh-white\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The future of maritime conflict\u2014a response to Hugh White | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Hugh White\u2019s equally \u2018spirited\u2019 response to my critique raises several questions in my mind. Unsurprisingly, I differ with him on several points. I accept\u2014and have said elsewhere\u2014that, unlike on land, the defence has no inherent ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-future-of-maritime-conflict-a-response-to-hugh-white\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-09-09T05:00:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2015-09-07T03:33:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/2255204904_ca5a817404_z.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"427\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"James Goldrick\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"James Goldrick\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-future-of-maritime-conflict-a-response-to-hugh-white\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/2255204904_ca5a817404_z.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/2255204904_ca5a817404_z.jpg\",\"width\":640,\"height\":427,\"caption\":\"Battleships\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-future-of-maritime-conflict-a-response-to-hugh-white\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-future-of-maritime-conflict-a-response-to-hugh-white\/\",\"name\":\"The future of maritime conflict\u2014a response to Hugh White | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-future-of-maritime-conflict-a-response-to-hugh-white\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2015-09-09T05:00:10+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2015-09-07T03:33:38+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/a9ee56242a6eb913591d14a06b13f9be\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-future-of-maritime-conflict-a-response-to-hugh-white\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-future-of-maritime-conflict-a-response-to-hugh-white\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-future-of-maritime-conflict-a-response-to-hugh-white\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The future of maritime conflict\u2014a response to Hugh White\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/a9ee56242a6eb913591d14a06b13f9be\",\"name\":\"James Goldrick\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/009826d42ec0f0972bfc27d573118e26?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/009826d42ec0f0972bfc27d573118e26?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"James Goldrick\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/james-goldrick\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The future of maritime conflict\u2014a response to Hugh White | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-future-of-maritime-conflict-a-response-to-hugh-white\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The future of maritime conflict\u2014a response to Hugh White | The Strategist","og_description":"Hugh White\u2019s equally \u2018spirited\u2019 response to my critique raises several questions in my mind. Unsurprisingly, I differ with him on several points. I accept\u2014and have said elsewhere\u2014that, unlike on land, the defence has no inherent ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-future-of-maritime-conflict-a-response-to-hugh-white\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2015-09-09T05:00:10+00:00","article_modified_time":"2015-09-07T03:33:38+00:00","og_image":[{"width":640,"height":427,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/2255204904_ca5a817404_z.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"James Goldrick","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"James Goldrick","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-future-of-maritime-conflict-a-response-to-hugh-white\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/2255204904_ca5a817404_z.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/2255204904_ca5a817404_z.jpg","width":640,"height":427,"caption":"Battleships"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-future-of-maritime-conflict-a-response-to-hugh-white\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-future-of-maritime-conflict-a-response-to-hugh-white\/","name":"The future of maritime conflict\u2014a response to Hugh White | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-future-of-maritime-conflict-a-response-to-hugh-white\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2015-09-09T05:00:10+00:00","dateModified":"2015-09-07T03:33:38+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/a9ee56242a6eb913591d14a06b13f9be"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-future-of-maritime-conflict-a-response-to-hugh-white\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-future-of-maritime-conflict-a-response-to-hugh-white\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-future-of-maritime-conflict-a-response-to-hugh-white\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The future of maritime conflict\u2014a response to Hugh White"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/a9ee56242a6eb913591d14a06b13f9be","name":"James Goldrick","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/009826d42ec0f0972bfc27d573118e26?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/009826d42ec0f0972bfc27d573118e26?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"James Goldrick"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/james-goldrick\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22389"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/76"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22389"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22389\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22391,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22389\/revisions\/22391"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22390"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22389"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22389"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22389"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}