{"id":22965,"date":"2015-10-19T15:00:09","date_gmt":"2015-10-19T04:00:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=22965"},"modified":"2015-10-19T15:12:17","modified_gmt":"2015-10-19T04:12:17","slug":"us-south-china-sea-patrols-put-beijing-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-south-china-sea-patrols-put-beijing-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place\/","title":{"rendered":"US South China Sea patrols put Beijing between a rock and a hard place"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"USS<\/a><\/p>\n

Last week\u2019s revelation that the Pentagon had been briefing Asian allies<\/a> that US Navy warships would soon conduct freedom of navigation patrols in the South China Sea has ramped up tensions in the world\u2019s most hotly contested body of water. Expected to take place within the next few days, the patrols would see US naval ships come within 12 nautical miles of at least one of China\u2019s controversial features in the South China Sea for the first time since 2012.<\/p>\n

China has responded<\/a> to the news about the impending patrols by stating that it will \u2018not permit any country to infringe on China\u2019s territorial waters and airspace in the Spratly Islands in the name of \u2018protecting freedom of navigation and overflight.\u2019 However on Tuesday, US Secretary of Defense, Ash Carter, reinforced the US\u2019s more muscular stance<\/a> in the region, declaring<\/a> that the US \u2018will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows, as we do around the world, and the South China Sea is not and will not be an exception\u2019.<\/p>\n

Indeed, the South China Sea shouldn\u2019t be an exception. Freedom of navigation patrols in the South China Sea are perfectly legal under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). They\u2018re seen by America and some of its partners as increasingly necessary to send a strong signal to Beijing that the US\u2014and by extension the rest of the region\u2014won\u2019t accept China\u2019s unilateral claims to the Sea, its belligerent enforcement of its claims, nor its militarisation of the islands.<\/p>\n

But US freedom of navigation patrols accompanied by tougher and tougher rhetoric puts Beijing between a rock and hard place. If the US does conduct the patrols, Beijing will be forced to chart a rocky course between a measured response that doesn\u2019t escalate dangerous tensions between the two powers, and a response that doesn\u2019t appear weak to China\u2019s increasingly nationalistic populace.<\/p>\n

The influence of popular nationalism on the Chinese leadership should certainly make the US pause to examine the consequences of its ramped-up rhetoric surrounding the South China Sea. The CCP has relied on the twin pillars of economic growth and nationalism to consolidate its domestic legitimacy since 1989, fuelled by the careful construction of a widespread patriotic education campaign<\/a>. The CCP has actively promoted a nationalist discourse that juxtaposes China\u2019s long and proud history of civilisation with its shameful experiences at the hands of colonial powers during the Century of Humiliation<\/a>. On top of this, the CCP strongly emphasises the Party\u2019s role in China\u2019s economic successes and national rejuvenation over the last 30 years, successfully positioning itself as the upholder of Chinese territorial integrity, defender of Chinese sovereignty and champion of China\u2019s core interests.<\/p>\n

With Chinese citizens increasingly nationalistic over the South China Sea<\/a>, any \u2018tough\u2019 US action in the region is likely to cause a strong backlash in China. In the face of slowing economic growth, or China\u2019s \u2018new normal<\/a>\u2019, the CCP can\u2019t afford to be seen as weak in the face of any perceived US disrespect to its territorial sovereignty. This may lead the CCP to adopt a hard-line response in an effort to placate outrage back home. This wouldn\u2019t be the first time the Chinese leadership have altered their original measured responses to similar incidents in an effort to soothe domestic sentiments. The 2001 US EP-3 spy plane incident<\/a>, the 2010 Senkaku\/Diaoyu<\/a> raw earth minerals incident and the escalated tensions in 2012 around the Senkaku\/Diaoyu islands all spring to mind. Despite the ongoing game of chicken in the South China Sea<\/a>, an escalated response to the US patrols certainly isn\u2019t in China\u2019s strategic interests, even if it shores up legitimacy at home.<\/p>\n

Nicholas Kristof\u2019s old adage<\/a> that nationalism is a \u2018particularly interesting force in China given its potential not just for conferring legitimacy on the government but also for taking it away<\/a>\u2019 is pertinent.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s been argued elsewhere<\/a> that assertive<\/a> US efforts won\u2019t solve the South China Sea challenge. That’s right\u2014all provocative language from the US will do is fuel domestic tensions in China that the CCP will be unable to ignore. This isn\u2019t to say that the US should halt its proposed freedom of navigation exercises. The US should by all means conduct the patrols, but should wind back the language and stick to highlighting the patrols as \u2018routine\u2019 and in-step with international maritime law. The US should also restrict their patrols to features that were indisputably only submerged bodies before China\u2019s massive land reclamation activities<\/a>, such as the Mischief Reef, to avoid further escalating Chinese tensions around territorial sovereignty.<\/p>\n

These steps would go a long way in taking some, but certainly not all, of the heat out of South China Sea tensions and avoid backing Beijing in to a situation that\u2019s in neither Beijing\u2019s nor Washington\u2019s interests.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Last week\u2019s revelation that the Pentagon had been briefing Asian allies that US Navy warships would soon conduct freedom of navigation patrols in the South China Sea has ramped up tensions in the world\u2019s most …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":391,"featured_media":22966,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,497,471,269],"class_list":["post-22965","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-patrol-boat","tag-south-china-sea","tag-unclos"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUS South China Sea patrols put Beijing between a rock and a hard place | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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