{"id":23090,"date":"2015-10-29T06:00:43","date_gmt":"2015-10-28T19:00:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=23090"},"modified":"2015-10-28T11:21:45","modified_gmt":"2015-10-28T00:21:45","slug":"is-the-ctbt-making-a-comeback","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-the-ctbt-making-a-comeback\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the CTBT making a comeback?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"US<\/a><\/p>\n

Recent reports<\/a> that the Obama administration has begun pursuing US Senate approval for ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty don\u2019t sound entirely credible. It might be that the administration wants to flag the issue as \u2018unfinished business\u2019. A US official suggested as much in a recent speech<\/a>, observing that the administration was focused on \u2018an open dialogue, rather than a timeline, to refamiliarize Senators with the Treaty\u2019. But we\u2019re only a year out from a presidential election. And it would be courting disaster to resubmit the treaty for the Senate\u2019s \u2018advice and consent\u2019\u2014it was rejected in 1999\u2014unless the administration was sure it would pass.<\/p>\n

Why are constraints on nuclear testing so contentious? Back in the 1980s and 1990s, the debate about testing was especially lively. Advocates of continued testing argued that it contributed to four technical objectives: modernisation of the arsenal, improved safety and security of warheads, stockpile reliability, and a better appreciation of weapons effects. Critics of testing argued that it contributed to the relentless progress in weapons development, harmed the environment, and made proliferation easier for new nuclear weapon states.<\/p>\n

Believers can be found on both sides of the argument. And for those people, the decision\u2019s about politics as much as it\u2019s about technical factors. Some think that retaining a right to test retains an important capacity both to signal determination to an adversary and to respond to a sudden technological shift. On the other side of the argument, some say that ratifying the CTBT now signals a renewed commitment to the ageing framework of international arms control.<\/p>\n

Do actual tests still matter? True, in the advanced nuclear weapon states computer simulation now allows \u2018virtual testing\u2019. But not all nuclear weapon states have equal access to those simulations, nor to the material data upon which they are based\u2014and nor would we want them to. If North Korea could enhance and miniaturise its warheads without further testing, the gains from a test ban would be\u00a0less clear cut. In short, there\u2019s an irony in steadily-improving simulation techniques: the more they improve and spread, the less valuable a ban on actual tests. It was frequently argued during the 1990s that a CTBT would \u2018lock-in\u2019 Western technical advantages in nuclear weapon design, for the simple reason that the US had conducted more nuclear tests than anyone else. That argument\u2019s still true, but weakening as other countries\u2019 simulation models improve.<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s advocates of CTBT ratification are especially keen to put to work the global seismic verification system that\u2019s been built since the 1990s. They see this as a solution to the traditional problem of verification that dogged test-ban worries in the 20th century. Then, small nuclear tests were seen as especially problematic. I can remember one suggestion at the time that the CTBT should permit any nuclear detonation which could be safely contained in a sealed above-ground container, for the simple reason that such tests would be exceedingly difficult to detect\u2014unless, of course, they burst the container.<\/p>\n

Decoupled tests\u2014in which nuclear devices are detonated within a previously excavated underground cavity\u2014were also of concern. US anxieties on that score go way back to the mid-1960s, when the Americans conducted a series of nuclear and chemical explosions<\/a> at the Tatum salt dome in Mississippi. Today\u2019s global seismic system probably offers better capabilities against really weak seismic signals, but I\u2019m not sure it\u2019s ever been tested against a country working actively to conceal a nuclear explosion. The North Koreans made few efforts to conceal their tests. And the Indians and Pakistanis wanted to advertise their nuclear status with their 1998 tests.<\/p>\n

Australia has long been an advocate of a CTBT, driven in part by its own experience as a nuclear test site for the British program and its consciousness that the Pacific seemed to bear the brunt of the early-US and late-French testing programs. But the CTBT hasn\u2019t featured much in Australian arms control thinking since 1999, when the treaty failed to attract US Senate approval last time around. Not surprisingly, the post 9\/11 world has offered a variety of distractions. And meanwhile, the signatories of the treaty have abided by their commitment not to test, so at least some of the benefits of the treaty have been available without having to jump the most difficult hurdles.<\/p>\n

Still, the treaty hasn\u2019t yet entered into force. And it won\u2019t do so anytime soon; not until the 44 countries specifically identified in Annex 2 as \u2018nuclear-capable\u2019 have all signed and ratified<\/a> the treaty. Only 36 have done so. Five of the 44\u2014the US, China, Israel, Egypt and Iran\u2014have signed but not ratified. Three\u2014Pakistan, India, and North Korea\u2014haven\u2019t even signed, and it\u2019s possible all three have deliberately chosen to keep open the possibility of a return to testing.<\/p>\n

So, are we about to embark on one more crusade to conclude a CTBT? Well, a slow-motion effort certainly seems to be under way in Washington\u2014an effort intended gradually to put the issue back on the agenda. But it\u2019s hard to see much happening soon. And getting the US Senate on board is only one of a number of challenges.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Recent reports that the Obama administration has begun pursuing US Senate approval for ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty don\u2019t sound entirely credible. It might be that the administration wants to flag the issue …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":23092,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1518,172,85,31],"class_list":["post-23090","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-ctbt","tag-nuclear-security","tag-nuclear-test","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIs the CTBT making a comeback? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-the-ctbt-making-a-comeback\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is the CTBT making a comeback? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Recent reports that the Obama administration has begun pursuing US Senate approval for ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty don\u2019t sound entirely credible. 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