{"id":2321,"date":"2012-11-15T13:17:48","date_gmt":"2012-11-15T03:17:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=2321"},"modified":"2012-11-20T12:12:05","modified_gmt":"2012-11-20T02:12:05","slug":"cant-we-just-build-submarines","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-we-just-build-submarines\/","title":{"rendered":"Can’t we just build submarines?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Image<\/a><\/figure>\n

As you read this, the Submarine Institute of Australia will be starting to think about putting the chairs on the table at the end of its 2012 conference. As expected, given the level of interest in the multi-billion dollar future submarine project, it was very well attended, and there were lots of interesting perspectives.<\/p>\n

Kicking off proceedings was the Minister for Defence Materiel, Jason Clare. His speech<\/a> sent probably the clearest signal yet that the government is leaning towards the ambitious end of the spectrum of possibilities:<\/p>\n

Like any big project there will be naysayers. There always is. In 1949, the Minister for Public Works and Housing, Nelson Lemmon responded to critics of the Snowy Mountains Scheme by saying:<\/p>\n

\u201c\u2026those critics, in the main, will be people who have little faith. This Government has faith in its engineers, its people and the future of Australia.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

This statement is as true today as it was then. There will always be those who say that it cannot be done. Those who say just buy submarines from overseas. Those that lack the faith in what Australian workers and Australian industry can achieve. I don\u2019t have those doubts. We can do this. And we will.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In discussions with other attendees afterwards, it seemed that ASPI was seen by many as among those naysayers. Not so\u2014we haven\u2019t ever said that Australia can\u2019t<\/em> build a new design submarine. What we have said\u2014and continue to think\u2014is that we\u2019re not yet convinced that we should<\/em>.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Of course, we\u2019ve had plenty to say on the subject of the future submarine, as befits the biggest program on the books. Our thoughts on the project management issues (here<\/a> and here<\/a>), costs (here<\/a>), the imperative to get moving to avoid a capability gap (here<\/a> and especially here<\/a>) and the strategic context (here<\/a> (PDF) and here<\/a>) are all on the public record.<\/p>\n

So why the perception that we are the \u2018Eeyores<\/a>\u2019 of the future submarine world (in contradistinction to the many Tiggers<\/a> out there)? I think the answer is that we have been fairly resolutely up the economically \u2018dry\u2019 end of the defence spending argument as far as Australian defence industry in general<\/a> and shipbuilding in particular<\/a>, is concerned. That\u2019s because we\u2019re not at all sure that government money is well spent in effectively duplicating the capabilities of other countries that have comparative advantages in the area. In short, we\u2019re not swayed by arguments for the \u2018nation building\u2019 nature of big defence projects. This is a very different argument to the one about the strategic and military costs and benefits of the future Australian submarine, but the two seem to be conflated in many discussions\u2014not least of which over the last two days.<\/p>\n

To digress for a moment, it\u2019s not clear to me that Australia needs<\/em> nation building. With the 52nd largest population in the world, we have the 14th biggest economy, a seat on the United Nations Security Council for the next couple of years, an enviable track record for influence in wide range of international activities and an economy based on our<\/em> comparative advantages that is the envy of the rest of the OECD. So what needs building?<\/p>\n

That\u2019s not an argument against a big government investment in defence industrial capacity. It might be that the benefits of doing so outweigh the benefits that would accrue from expenditure elsewhere or a reduction in taxation. I don\u2019t know for sure, although I\u2019m sceptical. In any case, my recent thoughts and those of my colleagues are available for scrutiny and rebuttal<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I haven\u2019t seen any convincing evidence put forward by those pushing for such an investment. So let me make a modest proposal, one we have floated previously to no avail. How about the government gather some quality decision-making information by asking the Productivity Commission to investigate the potential return on investment of shipbuilding? If the case comes back as a resounding endorsement, I\u2019ll run up the \u2018I was wrong\u2019 flag and happily endorse any such move. If not, I\u2019d hope to see a little less emphasis on \u2018nation building\u2019 when the case is made for a defence capability that should stand or fall on its merits.<\/p>\n

Incidentally, my talk at the conference had nothing to do with this, and was actually about the potential role of Australian submarines\u2026but more on that later.<\/p>\n

Andrew Davies is senior analyst for defence capability at ASPI and executive editor of <\/em>The Strategist. Image courtesy of Department of Defence<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As you read this, the Submarine Institute of Australia will be starting to think about putting the chairs on the table at the end of its 2012 conference. As expected, given the level of interest …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":2326,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2321","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCan't we just build submarines? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-we-just-build-submarines\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Can't we just build submarines? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As you read this, the Submarine Institute of Australia will be starting to think about putting the chairs on the table at the end of its 2012 conference. As expected, given the level of interest ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-we-just-build-submarines\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-11-15T03:17:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2012-11-20T02:12:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/20120906raaf8227810_0044.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"401\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Andrew Davies\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Andrew Davies\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-we-just-build-submarines\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/20120906raaf8227810_0044.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/20120906raaf8227810_0044.jpg\",\"width\":600,\"height\":401,\"caption\":\"Image courtesy of Department of Defence.\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-we-just-build-submarines\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-we-just-build-submarines\/\",\"name\":\"Can't we just build submarines? | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-we-just-build-submarines\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2012-11-15T03:17:48+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2012-11-20T02:12:05+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/08a9125f7af3039520d264e965235a73\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-we-just-build-submarines\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-we-just-build-submarines\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-we-just-build-submarines\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Can’t we just build submarines?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/08a9125f7af3039520d264e965235a73\",\"name\":\"Andrew Davies\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/bbb47ebb41d4978346dbf2e1d21b992a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/bbb47ebb41d4978346dbf2e1d21b992a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Andrew Davies\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/andrew-davies\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Can't we just build submarines? | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-we-just-build-submarines\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Can't we just build submarines? | The Strategist","og_description":"As you read this, the Submarine Institute of Australia will be starting to think about putting the chairs on the table at the end of its 2012 conference. As expected, given the level of interest ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-we-just-build-submarines\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2012-11-15T03:17:48+00:00","article_modified_time":"2012-11-20T02:12:05+00:00","og_image":[{"width":600,"height":401,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/20120906raaf8227810_0044.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Andrew Davies","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Andrew Davies","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-we-just-build-submarines\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/20120906raaf8227810_0044.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/20120906raaf8227810_0044.jpg","width":600,"height":401,"caption":"Image courtesy of Department of Defence."},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-we-just-build-submarines\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-we-just-build-submarines\/","name":"Can't we just build submarines? | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-we-just-build-submarines\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2012-11-15T03:17:48+00:00","dateModified":"2012-11-20T02:12:05+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/08a9125f7af3039520d264e965235a73"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-we-just-build-submarines\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-we-just-build-submarines\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/cant-we-just-build-submarines\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Can’t we just build submarines?"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/08a9125f7af3039520d264e965235a73","name":"Andrew Davies","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/bbb47ebb41d4978346dbf2e1d21b992a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/bbb47ebb41d4978346dbf2e1d21b992a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Andrew Davies"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/andrew-davies\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2321"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2321"}],"version-history":[{"count":22,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2321\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2341,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2321\/revisions\/2341"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2326"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2321"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2321"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2321"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}