{"id":23640,"date":"2015-12-01T06:00:48","date_gmt":"2015-11-30T19:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=23640"},"modified":"2015-11-30T09:35:03","modified_gmt":"2015-11-29T22:35:03","slug":"australia-and-nuclear-weapons","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-and-nuclear-weapons\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia and nuclear weapons"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"8424941030_22c5ba1709_h\"<\/a><\/p>\n

In late October, Christine Leah and Crispin Rovere published a provocative piece<\/a> on the War is Boring blog. Titled \u2018Australia needs nukes\u2019\u2014and the Twitter accounts of the authors suggest it wasn\u2019t their title\u2014the piece argued not merely that Australia would benefit from having its own nuclear deterrent but, more audaciously, that Australia might properly be seen as a legitimate nuclear weapon state under the NPT. That second claim\u2019s a bridge too far for me, and a rebuttal<\/a> published on Arms Control Wonk suggests it was a bridge too far for others as well. Notwithstanding the rebuttal, the National Interest Buzz subsequently republished<\/a> the original Leah-Rovere piece, from where it was picked up and republished<\/a> by the Asia Times<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Since the piece refuses to die\u2014despite Dr Leah\u2019s acceptance of the criticisms on Arms Control Wonk\u2014I want to offer a brief commentary here on the original argument. To get the specific out of the way of the general, let me say that I don\u2019t believe the Australian government ever gave much consideration to the option of seeking nuclear-weapon-state status under the NPT. We know for a fact that some officials considered the option<\/a>. But I\u2019m not aware of ministerial weight ever being put behind the idea. And, as Hassan Elbahtimy and Matthew Harries argue in their rebuttal, it would involve some heavy-duty lifting to make the claim now, 45 years after Australia signed the NPT as a non-nuclear weapon state.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s start with some basic facts. First, Australia is a signatory of the NPT and it\u2019s not a repentant state. It doesn\u2019t regret the choice of nuclear identity it made by its signature. That choice wasn\u2019t made on a sudden whim. Australian thinking about nuclear weapons, since at least 1957, has been dominated by a \u2018Menzian\u2019 vision<\/a>\u2014that such weapons could make a positive contribution to global security as long as they are held by responsible great powers sufficiently aware of the awful consequences of use as to be self-deterred. The two competing visions of nuclear weapons\u2014Gortonians who wanted Australia to have its own arsenal, and disarmers who favoured universal disarmament\u2014represented distinct minorities on the Australian strategic spectrum, albeit long-lived ones. True, the Gortonians enjoyed their best years<\/a> in the late 1950s and through the 1960s. But it would be wrong to think that by 1970 Australia stood committed to a nuclear weapons program abruptly and reluctantly terminated by signature of the NPT.<\/p>\n

Still, that doesn\u2019t mean the Menzian vision is destined to rule forever. The vision turns upon two assumptions: that nuclear weapons remain confined to responsible great powers, and that the Asian strategic environment doesn\u2019t slide towards a darker future. Both of those assumptions are eroding\u2014although we might argue amongst ourselves about how much and how quickly. Nuclear weapons are gradually spreading to states that we wouldn\u2019t usually think of as responsible great powers. And the pace of proliferation would quicken sharply if status quo powers\u2014like Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey\u2014were to withdraw from the NPT and begin manufacture and deployment of their own arsenals.<\/p>\n

The darker future in the Asian strategic environment has two, possibly related, forms. The first form would involve loss of credibility in the US\u2019s extended nuclear assurances to its regional allies. That might seem unlikely, but it certainly isn\u2019t impossible. As the region becomes more multipolar, relative US strategic weight is going down\u2014meaning the credibility of US assurances faces a more challenging structural environment. Moreover, if credibility breaks at one point a ripple effect could easily ensue.<\/p>\n

The second form of the darker future would involve the return of revisionist powers in Asia. In a regional strategic environment where coercive powers enjoyed greater freedom to coerce, other states would start looking for game-changers of their own. Part of that search might well involve the re-consideration of serious options set aside in more benign times. The notion that deterrence should become a national enterprise rather than an international one\u2014a core tenet of the Gortonian vision, but one disabled by signature of the NPT\u2014might well grow a new set of legs in such circumstances.<\/p>\n

Where does all that leave us? Australia isn\u2019t a nuclear weapon state under the NPT. And its dominant view of nuclear weapons is one under which Australia doesn\u2019t need an arsenal of its own. Australia\u2019s strategic preference would be for that status, and the permissive conditions which enable it, to continue. We just can\u2019t be sure they will.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In late October, Christine Leah and Crispin Rovere published a provocative piece on the War is Boring blog. Titled \u2018Australia needs nukes\u2019\u2014and the Twitter accounts of the authors suggest it wasn\u2019t their title\u2014the piece argued …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":23642,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[206,485,356],"class_list":["post-23640","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-non-proliferation","tag-nuclear-disarmament","tag-nuclear-weapons"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAustralia and nuclear weapons | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-and-nuclear-weapons\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Australia and nuclear weapons | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In late October, Christine Leah and Crispin Rovere published a provocative piece on the War is Boring blog. Titled \u2018Australia needs nukes\u2019\u2014and the Twitter accounts of the authors suggest it wasn\u2019t their title\u2014the piece argued ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-and-nuclear-weapons\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-11-30T19:00:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2015-11-29T22:35:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/8424941030_22c5ba1709_h.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"399\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Rod Lyon\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Rod Lyon\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-and-nuclear-weapons\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/8424941030_22c5ba1709_h.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/8424941030_22c5ba1709_h.jpg\",\"width\":640,\"height\":399},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-and-nuclear-weapons\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-and-nuclear-weapons\/\",\"name\":\"Australia and nuclear weapons | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-and-nuclear-weapons\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2015-11-30T19:00:48+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2015-11-29T22:35:03+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/9b94d45f61c61c15e3313f55e2c145bd\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-and-nuclear-weapons\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-and-nuclear-weapons\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-and-nuclear-weapons\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Australia and nuclear weapons\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/9b94d45f61c61c15e3313f55e2c145bd\",\"name\":\"Rod Lyon\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9090df27d0a103459ebfc0282858e8c1?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9090df27d0a103459ebfc0282858e8c1?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Rod Lyon\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/rod-lyon\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Australia and nuclear weapons | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-and-nuclear-weapons\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Australia and nuclear weapons | The Strategist","og_description":"In late October, Christine Leah and Crispin Rovere published a provocative piece on the War is Boring blog. Titled \u2018Australia needs nukes\u2019\u2014and the Twitter accounts of the authors suggest it wasn\u2019t their title\u2014the piece argued ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-and-nuclear-weapons\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2015-11-30T19:00:48+00:00","article_modified_time":"2015-11-29T22:35:03+00:00","og_image":[{"width":640,"height":399,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/8424941030_22c5ba1709_h.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Rod Lyon","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Rod Lyon","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-and-nuclear-weapons\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/8424941030_22c5ba1709_h.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/8424941030_22c5ba1709_h.jpg","width":640,"height":399},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-and-nuclear-weapons\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-and-nuclear-weapons\/","name":"Australia and nuclear weapons | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-and-nuclear-weapons\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2015-11-30T19:00:48+00:00","dateModified":"2015-11-29T22:35:03+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/9b94d45f61c61c15e3313f55e2c145bd"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-and-nuclear-weapons\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-and-nuclear-weapons\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-and-nuclear-weapons\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Australia and nuclear weapons"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/9b94d45f61c61c15e3313f55e2c145bd","name":"Rod Lyon","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9090df27d0a103459ebfc0282858e8c1?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9090df27d0a103459ebfc0282858e8c1?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Rod Lyon"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/rod-lyon\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23640"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23640"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23640\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23658,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23640\/revisions\/23658"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23642"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23640"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23640"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23640"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}