{"id":23790,"date":"2015-12-07T06:00:50","date_gmt":"2015-12-06T19:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=23790"},"modified":"2015-12-05T23:22:50","modified_gmt":"2015-12-05T12:22:50","slug":"australia-into-asean-the-asean-yes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-into-asean-the-asean-yes\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia into ASEAN: the ASEAN ‘YES\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>The case for Australia joining ASEAN will have to be embraced by both sides. Here\u2019s the \u2018Yes\u2019 case from ASEAN\u2019s perspective.<\/p>\n

The first three columns in this series were Canberra-centric, establishing why Australia should seek membership of ASEAN<\/a>, the dismissive view of Foreign Affairs<\/a> and the Oz negatives<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Now the series will present a range of ASEAN responses.<\/p>\n

A strong voice for the affirmative is the former head of Singapore\u2019s Foreign Ministry, the ASEAN intellectual\u00a0Kishore Mahbubani<\/a> (anointed by The Economist<\/em> as Asia\u2019s Toynbee while The Washington Post<\/em> sees him as Asia\u2019s Max Weber).<\/p>\n

Mahbubani thinks the country facing the most painful adjustment to the Asian century is undoubtedly Australia. Joining ASEAN is a smart response to the danger that \u2018Australia could well be left beached, together with New Zealand, as the sole Western entity in Asia.\u2019 He makes the \u2018Yes case here<\/a>, contending that Australia\u2019s ASEAN dilemma is national ego versus long-term interests\u2014and hard geopolitics will trump Oz cultural identity:<\/p>\n

\u2018In the long run, Australia will also have no choice but to seek membership in ASEAN. Right now, any such option is unthinkable in the minds of the Australian elite. Yet this is precisely the kind of \u201cunthinkable\u201d option that Australia has to consider as it enters the most challenging geopolitical environment of its history. In thinking of the unthinkable, Australian leaders should also ask themselves a simple question: why is Australian membership of ASEAN unthinkable? In due course, the honest answer will come out. The main disconnect between ASEAN and Australia is in the cultural dimension. ASEAN is Asian in culture and spirit. Australia is Western in culture and spirit. The main reason why Australia will be uncomfortable as a member of ASEAN is that it will have to learn how to behave as an Asian rather than as a Western nation. In thinking about this discomfort, Australians should bear in mind a new reality for Australia. Australia will have to change course in the Asian century. It will only have painful options. There will be no painless options. The big question that Australia will have to ponder as it looks ahead at its future in the 21st century is a simple one: will it be more painful for Australia to join ASEAN (and thereby accept both its constraints and its valuable geopolitical buffer) or will it be more painful for Australia to remain beached alone as the sole Western country (with New Zealand) in a resurgent Asia of 3.5 billion people?\u2019<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

No choice but to join! When I started work on this series last year, Mahbubani was my first formal interview. He says the biggest challenge Australia faces is a \u2018fundamental change in mindset.\u2019 The inevitability of the choice will be driven by the inexorable decline in the relative size of Australia\u2019s economy compared to East Asia: \u2018It\u2019s frightening that not more Australians are saying, \u201cIt\u2019s time to change\u201d.\u2019<\/p>\n

Singapore, he says, would gladly have Australia in ASEAN and has said so privately.<\/p>\n

As Foreign Ministry Secretary (1993-98), Mahbubani raised the idea of a community of 12 (ASEAN 10 plus Australia and New Zealand) with Australia\u2019s Foreign Affairs Secretary, Michael Costello, during the Keating Labor government (1991-96). \u2018I used to mention it when I was in ASEAN senior officials meetings\u2014there was no outrageous reaction.\u2019<\/p>\n

Back then, the veto by Malaysia\u2019s Mahathir would have been instant. Now, Mabubani thinks, Malaysia would see advantages.<\/p>\n

Several other ASEAN thinkers believe the geopolitical veto would be from China\u2014using Cambodia as proxy. Beijing could replay the spoiler role it attempted when Australia got membership of the East Asia Summit.<\/p>\n

Mahbubani isn\u2019t so sure China would object:<\/p>\n

\u2018From China\u2019s point of view, it means Australia is less pro-American and more sensitive to its Asian neighbourhood; it\u2019s a plus for China. If you want to join ASEAN you become less pro-American and you behave more like an ASEAN state, it\u2019s in their [China\u2019s] interests.\u2019<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

No strong ASEAN veto sentiment exists, he says, partly because the idea hasn\u2019t come up:<\/p>\n

\u2018I may be wrong, but I don\u2019t think so. I mean, you need to lay the groundwork. You need to prepare everyone for the change. The problem is no one has ever thought about it because it wasn\u2019t in the cards. Once it appears on the cards then they\u2019ll start thinking and reflecting on the pros and cons.\u2019<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Doing this the ASEAN way means slow work, much talk, no public pushing. The proposition of this series is that Australia seeks half-in status\u2014join as an ASEAN observer in 2024 on the 50th anniversary of Australia becoming ASEAN\u2019s first national dialogue partner.<\/p>\n

Mahbubani sees an observer bid as a good but small step.<\/p>\n

\u2018Observer status is no big deal,\u2019 he remarks.<\/p>\n

Accepting that view, doesn\u2019t that make it a gentle way to ease into the membership discussion?<\/p>\n

\u2018I think the critical thing is to decide whether or not you think it\u2019s in your national interest to join, and work towards that goal. Observer status is just a little subterfuge to try and get close on the way there \u2013 it should not become the end destination.\u2019<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Many elements would feed into Australia\u2019s ASEAN shift. Mahbubani nominates:<\/p>\n