{"id":23881,"date":"2015-12-11T11:00:04","date_gmt":"2015-12-11T00:00:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=23881"},"modified":"2015-12-11T11:14:33","modified_gmt":"2015-12-11T00:14:33","slug":"the-british-are-coming-back","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-british-are-coming-back\/","title":{"rendered":"The British are coming (back)"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"HMS<\/a><\/p>\n

It\u2019s been 40 years since a UK defence review meant much to Australia and the Asia\u2013Pacific, but the National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review 2015<\/a>, released last month, signals a sea change. In it, the UK not only commits to increasing its contribution to the apparently ageless Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA), but makes an explicit promise to include its new aircraft carriers in future FPDA exercises.<\/p>\n

Why does this matter? Because, for the first time since 1979, the UK is about to acquire a viable, independent, strike-carrier capability; which the government says will be second only to the United States Navy. When operational, this carrier force will constitute a new fact in the global distribution of naval power. And for FPDA members\u2014long used to token UK interest\u2014the ships herald a changed equation.<\/p>\n

As the review states: \u2018We will increase our contribution (to the FPDA), in particular through exercises, including with our new aircraft carriers, and joint training.\u2019 So for countries such as Australia and Singapore that invest heavily in amphibious capabilities, the promise of organic air power brings dramatically expanded scope to the exercises FPDA can conduct, and consequently the potential for FPDA as a vehicle for regional security.<\/p>\n

The carriers in question, HMS Queen Elizabeth<\/a> and HMS Prince of Wales, are gigantic compared with the Invincible-class ships they replace. At 70,600 tonnes, they are also 50% bigger than the Royal Navy\u2019s previous biggest warship, the old HMS Ark Royal \u2014 whose 1979 demise signalled the effective end of independent Royal Navy operations East of Suez. When the ships commission, in 2018 and 2020 respectively, only the USN will possesses larger aircraft carriers.<\/p>\n

What makes the 2015 strategic defence review relevant is the decision to give both ships teeth. Before the 2014 NATO summit in Cardiff, it looked doubtful if Prince of Wales would even see a commission. The Queen Elizabeth, meanwhile, sharing the fiscal attrition<\/a> of all F-35 partners (including the US),<\/a> prepared to welcome just 12 of the jump-jet F-35s into her capacious hanger.<\/p>\n

Now, the UK has decisively bitten the F-35 bullet. It has committed to a full 138-aircraft purchase, and doubled its pre-2023 carrier-specific procurement. The result: the Royal Navy will get a fully-equipped, two-ship carrier force, with each ship eventually able to operate up to 36 fifth-generation jets.<\/p>\n

Outside the NATO area, the carriers will constitute a dominating force, in almost all conceivable maritime and littoral environments. And, critically, the UK has the Sampson<\/a>-equipped destroyers and high-endurance attack submarines to protect them.<\/p>\n

This decision deserves attention in Asia\u2013Pacific because it expresses a shift in UK security priorities. The UK\u2019s designated expeditionary force is to be doubled to 50,000 personnel; special forces\u2019 budgeting will also be doubled; and two new rapid-strike brigades formed. The Review creates the force structure behind the ambition for \u2018\u2026 global reach and influence\u2019. The inherent corollary: European security has finally ceased to dominate UK defence spending.<\/p>\n

This shouldn\u2019t shock a realist-minded analyst. The UK\u2019s interests are shifting. The share of UK trade for which the EU accounts has fallen consistently since 1999, <\/a>and is now less than 50 percent. Between 1999 and 2013, exports to non-EU countries grew at almost twice the pace of exports to EU, and whereas overall trade with EU suffers from chronic, deteriorating deficits, non-EU trade is healthily in surplus. Commercial imperatives underlie Mr. Cameron\u2019s\u2019 quest to build a trading future \u2018in the Far East.\u2019<\/p>\n

Similarly the City of London is more global than at any time since the Sterling Area<\/a> era. As its financial and professional services jostle New York for global pre-eminence<\/a>, the \u2018Asian Century\u2019 has come to matter in Westminster. London\u2019s enthusiasm for the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (heedless of Washington\u2019s concerns) and the offshore renminbi trade are meaningful watersheds. The UK has a vital and growing interest in the stability and security of the Asia\u2013Pacific region.<\/p>\n

Hence, the startlingly global outlook of the security review, which includes setting up new defence staffs in Asia\u2013Pacific. The UK is \u2018\u2026strengthening considerably our defence, political and diplomatic cooperation with Japan, our closest security partner in Asia\u2019. This involves building on joint counter-piracy operations with Japan, and collaborating on joint deployments \u2014 regionally and worldwide. And to make clear the UK\u2019s trade-centric view of security, the desire to deepen defence engagement is twinned with an endorsement of opportunities for expanding UK\u2013Japan trade and investment.<\/p>\n

Besides Japan, Australia and New Zealand are singled out as countries with which the UK will \u2018seek to strengthen co-operation on settling international and regional disputes. The commitment to \u2018developing new capabilities\u2019 with Australia could just be a tilt at the RAN\u2019s ANZAC replacements, given growing confidence in the Type 26\u2019s Artisan\u2013Sea Ceptor<\/a> combination But the desire to deepen security engagement with the region is a recurring theme, which new capabilities make relevant.<\/p>\n

In practical terms, this means that when the Royal Navy sails east, FPDA members will play with multiple squadrons of sea-based strike-fighters, instead of the 8-10 Sea Harriers that maxed-out the old carriers\u2019 decks. Australia\u2019s two new Canberra-class amphibious ships will exercise against more aggressively-framed scenarios, and more importantly, so will the Hobart class air-warfare destroyers. And since the giant ships will carry a large, mixed bag of anti-submarine, attack, early warning and transport helicopters, the range of operations will expand too.<\/p>\n

There are geo-strategic caveats, of course. Putin\u2019s dreams could drag the UK back to old familiar postures. ISIL loomed large in the Review\u2019s media spin\u2014though terrorists are more afraid of ridicule than retaliation, a lesson the UK learned in Ireland. And the F-3B itself has much to prove\u2014though its target-finding finesse plus other vehicles\u2019 missiles looks a formidable combination.<\/p>\n

For Australia, the re-emergence of expeditionary UK doctrines\u2014backed by interest, not sentiment\u2014should provoke some forward-thinking. Relationships in Southeast Asia are changing. The assumptions that underpin the China Rising narrative may or may not survive that country\u2019s epic macro-financial tangles. But the UK\u2019s naval build up, at the front end of its own economic cycle, offer opportunities for Australia. And new facts to play with.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s been 40 years since a UK defence review meant much to Australia and the Asia\u2013Pacific, but the National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review 2015, released last month, signals a sea change. …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":129,"featured_media":23882,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[244,143,205,141],"class_list":["post-23881","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-aircraft-carrier","tag-asia-pacific","tag-five-power-defence-arrangements","tag-united-kingdom"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe British are coming (back) | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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