{"id":24613,"date":"2016-02-15T06:00:18","date_gmt":"2016-02-14T19:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=24613"},"modified":"2016-02-15T10:01:51","modified_gmt":"2016-02-14T23:01:51","slug":"rules-and-surprises-wars-and-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rules-and-surprises-wars-and-trade\/","title":{"rendered":"Rules and surprises, wars and trade"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"
\n<\/a>You can see the many currents in the Australia\u2013US relationship by using different lenses: war fighting and alliance, strategy, economics and trade.<\/span><\/p>\n

Add filters for surprises and rule writing and ambition and history and the nature of the two nations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lots of important stuff is flowing through the relationship. Already in 2016, note the Turnbull government\u2019s polite refusal of the US\u2019s form letter asking for extra effort in Iraq and Syria (lenses: surprise, alliance, war fighting.) And the less than all-out-gush in the Prime Minister\u2019s January visit to Washington (every lens, especially history).<\/span><\/p>\n

Next up, a multi-lens effort when the Defence White Paper is delivered. ASPI\u2019s<\/span> conference<\/span><\/a> on the meaning of the White Paper starts April 6\u2014microscope metaphors, please.<\/span><\/p>\n

Later this year, the submarine choice. If Japan loses the race to build the next Oz sub, Washington will be as disappointed as Tokyo<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The submarine is a huge decision\u2014and that\u2019s before you get to the cash. View the submarine choice through lots of lenses: domestic Oz politics, alliance management and strategy (and history and ambition). Not surprising, as Andrew Davies notes<\/a>, so much attention is on the politics of the build rather than the design.<\/span><\/p>\n

The just-signed Trans-Pacific Partnership treaty is about plenty more than economics and trade. The benefits of the deal are deeply contested, depending on modelling assumptions. The<\/span> sceptical argument<\/span><\/a> is that the \u2018gain is very small\u2019 and the TPP is no \u2018slam dunk\u2019 that should be approved automatically.<\/span><\/p>\n

The economic arguments over ratification will be intense\u2014nearly as powerful as the politics. This US election year means the American polity wants to defer the ratification wrangle in Congress to next year.<\/span><\/p>\n

If economics and politics are murky lenses, the clearest arguments for the TPP can be made when viewing it as strategy and rule writing. The TPP is the trade arm of the pivot, an<\/span> economic hard power weapon<\/span><\/a>. The TPP is about <\/span>who rules and who writes the rules<\/span><\/a>. This is the Barack Obama proposition: \u2018If we don’t write the rules, China will write the rules.\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n

The surprises in the Oz\u2013US relationship\u2014the unexpected bits\u2014are always revealing. Two recent examples:<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. The decision to lease the Port of Darwin to a Chinese company. Obama expressed Washington\u2019s displeasure at being blindsided in his first meeting with Turnbull:<\/span> \u2018Let us know next time.\u2019<\/span><\/a> That was about the alliance and the US marines in Darwin and it was about China, China, China.<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. The US form letter to 40 partners, including Australia, asking for extra effort in Iraq and Syria. Australia was gobsmacked when the letter from the US Defense Secretary lobbed without prior consultation. For an excellent account of the letter that made Canberra go \u2018Whoa!\u2019 see<\/span> Karen Middleton<\/span><\/a>:<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \u2018When it comes to seeking support in military operations, there is an understanding between Australia and the US: Australia won\u2019t be asked for a contribution unless and until it is in a position to say yes. If the US wants to ask, the issue will be discussed in a conversation between officials. If the Australians indicate the response will be positive, then a written request will be made\u2014sometimes along with a leader-to-leader phone call\u2014in very specific terms. But if the answer is not going to be yes, then the request is never officially lodged.\u2019<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    Here was Washington making a formal alliance request in a way that produced a rare formal response from Australia: No.<\/span><\/p>\n

    The surprise lens offers the view that Canberra\u2019s response was about more than war fighting\u2014it was about how the great and powerful friend should treat a close ally.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Amid all the other currents, no great harm done from the two surprises. Do better next time.<\/span><\/p>\n

    The unusual sight of Australia saying \u2018No\u2019 provided one filter for Turnbull\u2019s pilgrimage to the White House, with much textual analysis devoted to his Washington speech,<\/span> \u2018Australia and the United States: New responsibilities for an enduring partnership\u2019<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

    The \u2018enduring partnership\u2019 title meant Turnbull stood in line with every Australian leader since Curtin and Menzies.<\/span><\/p>\n

    It\u2019s hard to salute and embrace at the same time. Yet for Australian leaders in Washington, it\u2019s the standard gesture.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Despite Turnbull\u2019s enduring partnership usage, analysts detected change.<\/span><\/p>\n

    James Curran<\/span><\/a> saw a shift beyond the \u2018faint whiff of uncritical subservience\u2019 of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott that exemplified an \u2018extraordinary bipartisan intensity\u2019 in the alliance that had distorted how Australia presents itself to the region and the world:<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u2018Turnbull’s speech in Washington may very well have exhibited a difference in degree rather than kind in terms of alliance rhetoric, but that fits perfectly the current moment. It is a time for shades of grey, not thunderous absolutes.\u2019<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    One of Canberra\u2019s wise owls,<\/span> Allan Gyngell<\/span><\/a>, also noted the \u2018absence of absolutes\u2019 in the speech.<\/span><\/p>\n

    When using lenses, beware the distortions of magnification. Don\u2019t read too much into one speech.<\/span><\/p>\n

    So the commentary that got it into one phrase, for me, was<\/span> Bruce Grant\u2019s<\/span><\/a> judgement that Turnbull \u2018showed flickers of independence.\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n

    Flicker is about right. And in the White Paper next month the flicker will be invisible amongst the alliance love.<\/span><\/p>\n

    The Turnbull embrace of the alliance will be as fervent as all the official statements that went before\u2014the White Papers of Fraser, Hawke, Keating, Howard, Rudd and Gillard.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Expect the classic Canberra signal to the US where history and politics meet the alliance\u2014the simultaneous salute and embrace.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    You can see the many currents in the Australia\u2013US relationship by using different lenses: war fighting and alliance, strategy, economics and trade. Add filters for surprises and rule writing and ambition and history and the …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":24617,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[43,40,176,1056,1551,31],"class_list":["post-24613","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-afghanistan","tag-alliance-2","tag-barack-obama","tag-bilateral-relations","tag-landbridge","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRules and surprises, wars and trade | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rules-and-surprises-wars-and-trade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rules and surprises, wars and trade | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"You can see the many currents in the Australia\u2013US relationship by using different lenses: war fighting and alliance, strategy, economics and trade. 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