{"id":25103,"date":"2016-03-04T06:00:16","date_gmt":"2016-03-03T19:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=25103"},"modified":"2016-03-03T14:24:04","modified_gmt":"2016-03-03T03:24:04","slug":"dwp-2016-china-australia-and-the-us-rebalance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/dwp-2016-china-australia-and-the-us-rebalance\/","title":{"rendered":"DWP 2016: China, Australia and the US rebalance?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"HMAS<\/p>\n

Australia enters China\u2019s strategic landscape because of its role as a close military ally of the US. It\u2019s seen<\/span> by many inside China<\/span><\/a> as the \u2018southern anchor\u2019 of America\u2019s alliance system in the Asia\u2013Pacific region. Yet, when compared with Japan, the \u2018northern anchor\u2019 of this system, Australia has never generated the same amount of frustration or anxiety among Chinese policymakers. Geography and history combine to produce different security dynamics in China\u2013Australia relations, compared with China\u2013Japan relations, despite Australia and Japan\u2019s identical roles as a close US ally. Since the end of the Cold War, Australia has occasionally been a minor nuisance to China\u2019s strategic planning\u2014rarely a headache, let alone a preoccupation.<\/span><\/p>\n

But, as the Australian government\u2019s 2016 Defence White Paper points out, the strategic environment of the Indo\u2013Pacific region is changing fast, and Australia must cope with a new set of security uncertainties and risks (1.6). Can the current, relatively uneventful security relationship between Australia and China last under changing circumstances?<\/span><\/p>\n

The US rebalance to Asia and China\u2019s recent policies in the South China Sea are intensifying strategic competition between the two countries; it\u2019s also increasingly straining the Australia\u2013China security relationship. China was likely embarrassed by the two US freedom of navigation operations carried out in October 2015 and January 2016. It\u2019s not happy with Australia\u2019s air patrols in the South China Sea either, even though the public reaction hasn\u2019t been strong.<\/span><\/p>\n

Beijing will pay close attention to what the DWP says about the South China Sea. It\u2019ll also look at what the document says about the US rebalance to the region. Chinese officials aren\u2019t so na\u00efve as to expect Australia to lean toward China in the current strategic environment, but they\u2019ll be looking for signs of change in Australia\u2019s strategy toward China\u2019s rise (such as a more forceful military doctrine targeting China), especially if such change is of a long-term nature.<\/span><\/p>\n

In those respects, the DWP doesn\u2019t send an encouraging signal to Beijing. On the South China Sea, it states that \u2018Australia is particularly concerned by the unprecedented pace and scale of China\u2019s land reclamation activities\u2019. Furthermore, it declares that \u2018Australia opposes the use of artificial structures in the South China Sea for military purposes\u2019. And that Australia strongly supports freedom of navigation and overflight as well as the peaceful resolution of disputes in accordance with international law.<\/span><\/p>\n

Those statements make it clear that Australia is supporting the US in opposing China\u2019s island construction in the South China Sea. Judging by its air patrols, Australia is the US\u2019s most active regional ally in asserting military power and rhetorical messaging to oppose Chinese activities\u2014even more so than the Philippines has been.<\/span><\/p>\n

So it isn\u2019t surprising that China\u2019s Foreign Ministry spokesperson<\/span> described the DWP\u2019s positions on the South China Sea<\/span><\/a> as \u2018negative\u2019, nor that Beijing was said to be \u2018seriously concerned and dissatisfied\u2019 with this part of the document.<\/span><\/p>\n

The US and ASEAN released a relevant<\/span> joint declaration<\/span><\/a> following the Sunnylands summit held in California in February. The document reaffirmed a set of general principles for managing maritime disputes but contained no specific reference to China or the South China Sea. After initial concerns, Beijing was relieved by the moderate tone of the joint declaration and largely chose to ignore it. Beijing might well have hoped for a similar treatment of the South China Sea from the Australian DWP. But Canberra has chosen to eliminate all ambiguities by pointing the finger at China.<\/span><\/p>\n

Can Beijing hope for a somewhat independent or balanced Australian analysis of the changing Indo\u2013Pacific regional order? The DWP\u2019s treatment of the US rebalance doesn\u2019t inspire confidence. It\u2019s clear that Australia is supporting the US when it comes to defence strategy. As the DWP\u2019s executive summary declares, \u2018Australia will seek to broaden and deepen our alliance with the US, including by supporting its critical role in underpinning security in our region through the continued rebalance of the United States military forces.\u2019 To be sure, the DWP also commits Australia to developing defence relations with China. But compared to defence relations with the US, the policy of developing defence ties with China appears no more than a token inclusion to prevent the Australia\u2013China strategic relationship from deteriorating.<\/span><\/p>\n

Australia\u2019s firm commitment to its alliance with the US should come as no surprise to Beijing. So perhaps Beijing should simply accept Australia\u2019s strong support for the US rebalance as a consequence of its actions in the South China Sea. Still, it\u2019s debatable whether the US strategy of rebalance is the best option available for ensuring peace and stability in the Indo\u2013Pacific region. Since<\/span> many inside China<\/span><\/a> see the rebalance as a US attempt to check Chinese influence (if not contain it), Australia\u2019s support for the US has the potential to make it a strategic rival of China, which isn\u2019t in Australia\u2019s best interests. Besides, does Canberra really believe that the US attempt to maintain the status quo of US primacy\u2014if that\u2019s possible\u2014is the best way to contribute to stability in the region during China\u2019s rise?<\/span><\/p>\n

As the DWP establishes, Australia has operated with the US in every major conflict since the First World War, including recently in Iraq and Afghanistan. Will Australia follow the US into a possible clash with China? It\u2019s a legitimate question to ask of the DWP, and the DWP content on this topic (which proffers unconditional support for US strategy of rebalance) is surprisingly biased and shortsighted. One would hope for a more critical\u2014or at least balanced\u2014view of US strategy and a more long-term take on China that goes beyond the current island construction in the South China Sea. This involves two things: first, China\u2019s South China Sea policy reflects the current inclinations of Xi Jinping\u2019s leadership, so it could change in the future; and second, strategy needs to reflect the long-term trend of a changing power balance in the Indo\u2013Pacific as China rises.<\/span><\/p>\n

If Australia\u2019s strategy toward China follows the DWP\u2019s proposal of making Australia an appendage of the US rebalance, Canberra should desperately hope that the US and China will be able to find a <\/span>modus vivendi<\/span><\/i> in their strategic competition, in order to avoid breaking its security relationship with China. The irony, of course, is that Australia\u2019s strategic future in the context of US\u2013China relations will be decided by Washington and Beijing, with little input from Canberra.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Australia enters China\u2019s strategic landscape because of its role as a close military ally of the US. It\u2019s seen by many inside China as the \u2018southern anchor\u2019 of America\u2019s alliance system in the Asia\u2013Pacific region. …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":417,"featured_media":25105,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1636,378,471,31],"class_list":["post-25103","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-defence-white-paper-2016","tag-rebalance","tag-south-china-sea","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDWP 2016: China, Australia and the US rebalance? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/dwp-2016-china-australia-and-the-us-rebalance\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"DWP 2016: China, Australia and the US rebalance? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Australia enters China\u2019s strategic landscape because of its role as a close military ally of the US. 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