{"id":25228,"date":"2016-03-09T14:30:45","date_gmt":"2016-03-09T03:30:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=25228"},"modified":"2016-03-09T15:32:51","modified_gmt":"2016-03-09T04:32:51","slug":"the-kinda-sort-of-integrated-investment-program","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-kinda-sort-of-integrated-investment-program\/","title":{"rendered":"The (kinda sort of) Integrated Investment Program"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-25229\" src=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/mark-graph.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"662\" height=\"481\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/mark-graph.png 531w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/mark-graph-205x149.png 205w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 662px) 100vw, 662px\" \/><br \/>\nThis year\u2019s Defence White Paper was accompanied by a document entitled<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.defence.gov.au\/WhitePaper\/Docs\/2016-Defence-Integrated-Investment-Program.pdf\" target=\"_blank\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2016 Integrated Investment Plan<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (IIP) (PDF), which claims to bring together \u2018for the first time\u2019 the following:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unapproved Major Capital Investment Program<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Approved Major Capital Investment Program<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Major Capital Facilities Program<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Information and communications technology services<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Group and Service workforce plans.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Impressive? Not really. The 2000 White Paper actually employed an even more comprehensive approach (see<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.defence.gov.au\/publications\/wpaper2000.pdf\" target=\"_blank\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Chapter 8<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">), which included sustainment. Surely a truly integrated approach would include the more than $8 billion spent annually sustaining the equipment, bases and people of the ADF.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Moreover, the personnel coverage in the IIP simply regurgitates the scarce data already disclosed in the White Paper proper. Even then, the data is of limited use because the personnel baseline remains undisclosed. For example, we\u2019re told that there will be an additional 500 ADF personnel added to the strike and air combat workforce, which is all very interesting. But because we don\u2019t know what the size of the strike and air combat workforce is to start with, we can\u2019t say whether the workforce has increased by 5% or 50%. The result is a series of impressive sound-bites without the context needed to make sense of the changes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What are we left with? All up, we get a list of 166 planned equipment and facilities projects and a partial list of (34 out of more than 150) pre-existing equipment projects. Only a couple of the current 55 major facilities projects make the cut. We\u2019re told that the IIP contains investment of approximately $195 billion in defence capability over the forthcoming decade. Yet, the explicit annual figures for capital investment in the DWP (see page 182) amount to only $162 billion over the period. I have no explanation for the missing $33 billion. Dibs if it turns up.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The strength of the IPP is that it provides a narrative description of planned investment in each of four adjective-laden categories, including <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Enabled, Mobile and Sustainable Forces <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">and <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Potent and Agile Offensive Response<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. (If you ever want to parody defence-speak, simply ensure that there are at least <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">two adjectives for every noun<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.) Read in tandem with the 2016 DWP, it provides at least as clear a sketch of overall plans for the ADF as the 2009 or 2013 DWPs. That said; there are more than a few gaps. For example, the need to extend the life of at least some of the Collins fleet only came to light following media investigations several days after the document\u2019s release.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At the project\/program level only two pieces of information are consistently provided. The first is the \u2018approximate investment value\u2019 expressed as a range such as $100\u2013200 million. Unfortunately, the numbers are given in \u2018out-turned\u2019 dollars that include anticipated inflation over the life of the project. For example, the \u2018greater than $50 billion\u2019 price for the future submarine reduces to a much more modest \u2018greater than $28 billion\u2019 in today\u2019s dollars under reasonable (by though no means certain) assumptions about spending profile. Using out-turned dollars as the sole source of disclosed costs is<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/indexation-inflation-and-the-cost-of-defence-projects\/\" target=\"_blank\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">misleading to the point of obfuscation<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The second piece of information is what\u2019s referred to as either \u2018Program Timeframe\u2019 or \u2018Indicative Acquisition Window\u2019, depending where you look. For example, the future submarine is given the window 2018\u20132057. Absent a definition, we\u2019re left to guess its meaning. From the submarine example, we know that the end dates don\u2019t correspond to in-service-dates. From the 69 project windows commencing over the next 10 months (see above), the start dates don\u2019t correspond to project approval\u2014unless the program is preposterously front loaded and impractical. Thus, with neither year-of-decision nor in-service dates provided, the IIP provides precious little useful information about project timing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To make matters worse, the description of projects is often much less than was previously provided under the Defence Capability Plan (DCP). Take for example the \u2018Destroyer Program \u2013 Combat System\u2019 valued at $4\u20135 billion planned for the period 2017\u20132028. Apart from a commitment to \u2018regularly upgrade the AEGIS combat system\u2019 and a reference to \u2018upgrades to the destroyer\u2019s and ANZAC Class frigates\u2019 combat systems\u2019, we\u2019re left in the dark as to why we need to spend this prodigious amount on upgrading the combat system on vessels that haven\u2019t yet been delivered and whose core combat system only cost<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.dsca.mil\/major-arms-sales\/australia-aegis-combat-system-components-air-warfare-destroyer-program\" target=\"_blank\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">US450 million to buy in the first place<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. The only explanation that readily comes to mind is that the AWDs are going to be upgraded to support Ballistic Missile Defence, though<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.dsca.mil\/major-arms-sales\/japan-aegis-weapon-system-upgrade\" target=\"_blank\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Japan upgraded the AEGIS combat systems on two of its vessels in 2012 for only US$421 million<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. In any case, it would be extraordinary if so strategically sensitive an enhancement wasn\u2019t carefully explained in the White Paper. Who knows what\u2019s going on?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In conclusion, despite its many colourful charts and self-congratulatory \u2018for the first time\u2019 claim, the level of disclosure in the IIP is below that of DCP published from 2001\u20132012, and even compares poorly with the public \u2018Pink Books\u2019 and \u2018Green Books\u2019 of the 1990s. As a result, the 2016 IIP represents the lowest point in defence capability planning transparency in a quarter-century.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Lest it seem that I\u2019m being critical without being constructive, here\u2019s a<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/publications\/how-much-is-enough-the-disclosure-of-defence-capability-planning-information\/ASPI_DCP_Review_Report_web.pdf\" target=\"_blank\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">link to a report<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (PDF) I co-authored for the government back in 2010 on how to disclose capability planning information consistent with security and commercial considerations. Transparency matters because it assists industry to plan and allows the government and Defence to be held to account. With major reforms underway in the areas of capability planning and acquisition, and with industry now being identified as a \u2018fundamental input to capability\u2019, we need more transparency not less.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This year\u2019s Defence White Paper was accompanied by a document entitled 2016 Integrated Investment Plan (IIP) (PDF), which claims to bring together \u2018for the first time\u2019 the following: \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Unapproved Major Capital Investment Program \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Approved Major &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":25229,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25228","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The (kinda sort of) Integrated Investment Program | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-kinda-sort-of-integrated-investment-program\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The (kinda sort of) 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